For Iran’s Youth, Legacy of 2022 Clashes Shapes Presidential Race 

People walk through the old main bazaar of Tehran, Iran, Thursday, June 13, 2024. (AP)
People walk through the old main bazaar of Tehran, Iran, Thursday, June 13, 2024. (AP)
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For Iran’s Youth, Legacy of 2022 Clashes Shapes Presidential Race 

People walk through the old main bazaar of Tehran, Iran, Thursday, June 13, 2024. (AP)
People walk through the old main bazaar of Tehran, Iran, Thursday, June 13, 2024. (AP)

Atousa joined angry protests against Iran's rulers in 2022 that loyalists like Reza helped crush. Two years on, the two young Iranians' political views remain at odds, reflecting a rift that will shape the outcome of presidential elections this week.

Now 22, Atousa says she will abstain from voting in Friday's ballot to choose a successor to Ebrahim Raisi after his death in a helicopter crash, regarding the exercise with derision. But Reza, 26, a religiously devout member of the hardline Basij militia, intends to vote, a contrasting view of the worth of the election that underscores the division in Iran.

All six candidates - five hardliners and a low-key moderate approved by a hardline watchdog body - have been wooing youthful voters in speeches and campaign messages, using social media to reach the 60% of the 85 million population aged under 30.

"This election, like all elections in Iran, is a circus. Why should I vote when I want the regime to be toppled?" Atousa told Reuters. She declined to be identified by her full name for security reasons.

"Even if it was a free and fair election and if all candidates could enter the race, the president in Iran has no power," she said.

The hashtag #ElectionCircus has been widely posted on social media platform X by Iranians in the past few weeks, while some Iranians at home and abroad have called for an election boycott.

Under Iran's clerical system, the elected president runs the government day-to-day but his powers are circumscribed by those of the hardline supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who has the last word on top issues such as nuclear and foreign policy.

'RELIGIOUS DUTY TO VOTE'

Like many women and young Iranians, Atousa joined protests in 2022 sparked by the death of a young Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, in police custody, following her arrest for allegedly violating Iran's mandatory religious dress code.

The unrest spiraled into the biggest show of opposition to Iran's clerical rulers in years.

Atousa, then a student, was arrested during the protests and her dream of becoming an architect was shattered when she was expelled from university as a punishment for participating in the demonstrations.

The Basij, a plain-clothes arm of the elite Revolutionary Guards, deployed alongside uniformed security during the 2022 unrest and helped suppress demonstrations with deadly force.

Over 500 people including 71 minors were killed in the protests, hundreds injured and thousands arrested in unrest that was eventually crushed by security forces, rights groups said.

Iran carried out seven executions linked to the unrest. Authorities have not given any official estimated death toll, but said dozens of security forces were killed in "riots".

"I will sacrifice my life for the leader and the Islamic Republic. It is my religious duty to vote. My participation will strengthen the Nezam (system)," said Reza, from the low-income Nazi Abad district in south Tehran.

Reza said he will support a hardline candidate who champions Khamenei's "resistance economy", a phrase meaning economic self-sufficiency, strengthening trade ties with regional neighbors and improving economic interaction with China and Russia.

The economy is beset by mismanagement, state corruption and sanctions reimposed since 2018 after the US ditched Tehran's 2015 nuclear pact with six world powers.

Reza and Atousa, both born after the 1979 revolution, have regrets about the 2022 demonstrations, albeit for different reasons.

Reza blames the protests for bringing mounting pressure on Iran from Western countries, which imposed sanctions on Iranian security forces and officials for alleged human rights abuses. Iran accused Western powers of fomenting the unrest.

"I wish the protests had not taken place ... our enemies used it as a pretext to mount pressure on our country," he said.

Atousa looks back on that period with sadness.

"I was hopeful," she said. "I thought finally the change will come and I will be able to live a life with no suppression in a free country ... I paid a heavy price, but the regime is still here."



Sinwar, Israel’s Problem After 8 Months of War

Yehya Al-Sinwar...Israel has failed to find him during the Gaza War (AP)
Yehya Al-Sinwar...Israel has failed to find him during the Gaza War (AP)
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Sinwar, Israel’s Problem After 8 Months of War

Yehya Al-Sinwar...Israel has failed to find him during the Gaza War (AP)
Yehya Al-Sinwar...Israel has failed to find him during the Gaza War (AP)

Since the beginning of the war on the Gaza Strip in October, Israel has placed, among its top goals, the elimination of the Hamas movement’s leaders, including Yehya Sinwar.

Political and military officials in Tel Aviv accuse the man of planning the October 7 attack, which led to the killing of hundreds of Israelis and the captivity of nearly 240 others.

But after 8 months of continuous war and Israel excavating every house, tunnel and place in search of Sinwar, from the north of the Gaza Strip to its center, then to Khan Yunis and Rafah in its south, the occupation army has found no trace of the man except a short video showing him with his family in a tunnel, apparently at the beginning of the war in Khan Yunis, his hometown.

Israel’s pursuit of Sinwar, along with many of the political and military leaders of the Hamas movement, highlights a blatant intelligence failure. Sources in the Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip and outside it told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Israeli occupation’s inability to find him does not mean that he has cut communication with the movement’s officials.

The sources confirmed that Sinwar was constantly informed of all developments, especially with regard to the ongoing negotiations, and communicated several times with the movement’s leaders abroad, in particular during the recent negotiations on the release of hostages and on reaching a ceasefire. He also contacted the head of the movement’s political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, to convey his condolences after Israel killed members of his family in an airstrike.

The sources added that only two or three people knew his whereabouts and provided for his various needs, as well as ensured his contact with the movement’s leaders inside Gaza and abroad.

“The occupation failed to reach many of the leaders of the first and second ranks at the political and military levels, but it tried to assassinate some of them, while others were injured...but Sinwar is not among them,” according to the sources.

Meanwhile, reports in Jewish media said that Sinwar was moving inside the remaining tunnels of the Hamas movement, without providing evidence of these claims. The Israeli army has constantly announced its success in destroying Hamas’ capabilities, including tunnels, in addition to the dismantling of the movement’s brigades in Khan Yunis and other areas in the Strip.

Asharq Al-Awsat tried to contact people close to Sinwar, including some of his relatives, to draw a better picture of the man’s personality and how he might make his decisions.

“Sinwar is thinking of two options... Either fulfilling the conditions of the resistance in stopping the war, withdrawing the occupation forces, and completing an honorable exchange deal, or obtaining the honor of martyrdom,” they said.

Regarding his character, and in response to Israeli claims that he is violent and stubborn, those close to Sinwar explain that he has a sociable personality, and often visits legal and local figures and even his neighbors, despite his preoccupations since his election as leader of the movement in the Gaza Strip.

“Contrary to what is seen by many as a very sharp personality, he often possesses a sense of humor, even during the meetings and interviews that he ran at the level of the movement’s leaders,” a person close to Sinwar told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He added: “But this does not negate that he is a leader... and was able to resolve any discussion.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu constantly affirms his refusal to end the Gaza war in a way that gives Sinwar and Hamas the image of victory, as part of his response to criticism by political and military officials in Tel Aviv regarding the lack of a strategic plan for the day after the war, as well as the failure to reach a deal with Hamas that guarantees the release of Israeli prisoners.

Analysts believe that Israel’s failure to catch Sinwar represents a military and political problem. Hamas sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Sinwar is aware of this fact and understands that Israel wants to kill or capture him to claim that it has won the war.

“As he has spent many years in Israeli prisons, [Sinwar] understands well how Israeli leaders think, and therefore manages many aspects of the battle politically... He is described as a stubborn negotiator, who wants to impose the Palestinian conditions, especially with regard to a full cessation of hostilities and the withdrawal of the occupation forces from the entire Gaza Strip,” the sources said.