Could Kamala Harris Beat Donald Trump in November’s Presidential Race?

US Vice President Kamala Harris reacts during the 30th annual Essence Festival in New Orleans, Louisiana, US, July 6, 2024. (Reuters)
US Vice President Kamala Harris reacts during the 30th annual Essence Festival in New Orleans, Louisiana, US, July 6, 2024. (Reuters)
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Could Kamala Harris Beat Donald Trump in November’s Presidential Race?

US Vice President Kamala Harris reacts during the 30th annual Essence Festival in New Orleans, Louisiana, US, July 6, 2024. (Reuters)
US Vice President Kamala Harris reacts during the 30th annual Essence Festival in New Orleans, Louisiana, US, July 6, 2024. (Reuters)

She worries Republican donors, has name recognition, and Democratic Party heavyweights are beginning to line up behind her.

Vice President Kamala Harris would be President Joe Biden's natural successor if he bowed to growing pressure and stepped aside as the Democratic candidate in the 2024 election, top Democrats say.

Now party donors, activists and officials are asking: Does she have a better chance than Biden of beating Donald Trump? Biden is staying in the race, he has said repeatedly.

Harris, 59, a former US senator and California attorney general, would be the first woman to become president of the United States if she were the party's nominee and prevailed in the Nov. 5 election. She is the first African American and Asian person to serve as vice president.

Her three-and-a-half-year White House tenure has been characterized by a lackluster start, staff turnover, and early policy portfolios including migration from Central America that did not produce major successes.

As recently as last year, many inside the White House and the Biden campaign team privately worried Harris was a liability for the campaign. The situation has changed significantly since then, Democratic officials have said, as she stepped forward on abortion rights and courted young voters.

SOME POLLS FAVOR HARRIS

Recent polls suggest Harris could do better than Biden against Trump, the Republican candidate, although she would face a tight contest.

A CNN poll released on July 2 found voters favor Trump over Biden by six percentage points, 49% to 43%. Harris also trailed Trump, 47% to 45%, within the margin of error.

It also found independents back Harris 43%-40% over Trump, and moderate voters of both parties prefer her 51-39%.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll after last week's televised debate between Trump and a faltering Biden found Harris and Trump were nearly tied, with 42% supporting her and 43% backing him.

Only former first lady Michelle Obama, who has never expressed any interest in getting into the race, polled higher among possible alternatives to Biden.

Internal polling shared by the Biden campaign after the debate shows Harris with the same odds as Biden of beating Trump, with 45% of voters saying they would vote for her versus 48% for Trump.

Influential Democrats including US Representative Jim Clyburn, the man who was key to Biden's 2020 win; Rep. Gregory Meeks, a New York congressman and senior member of the Congressional Black Caucus and Summer Lee, a House Democrat from Pennsylvania have signaled Harris would be the best option to lead the ticket if Biden chooses to step aside.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has also privately signaled the same to lawmakers, a Congressional aide said.

Harris is taken so seriously, two Republican donors told Reuters they would prefer for Trump to face Biden than her.

"I would prefer Biden to stay in place" rather than be replaced by Harris, said Pauline Lee, a fundraiser for Trump in Nevada after the June 27 debate, who said she thought Biden had proved himself to be "incompetent."

And some on Wall Street, an important Democratic fundraising center, are starting to indicate a preference.

"Biden is already behind Trump, and is unlikely to be able to overcome that gap given where his campaign is currently. Having VP Harris likely improves Democrats' odds of taking the White House," said Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group, a financial services company, after the debate. "There's potentially more upside for her chances than Biden's at this point."

A majority of Americans see Harris in a negative light, as they do both men running for president.

Polling outlet Five Thirty Eight said 37.1% of voters approve of Harris and 49.6% disapprove. Those numbers compare to 36.9% and 57.1% for Biden, and 38.6% and 53.6% for Trump.

WOMEN, BLACK VOTERS, GAZA

Since the Supreme Court repealed women's constitutional right to abortion in 2022, Harris has become the Biden administration's foremost voice on reproductive rights, an issue Democrats are betting on to help them win the 2024 election.

Some Democrats believe Harris could energize Democratic-leaning groups whose enthusiasm for Biden has faded, including Black voters, young voters and those who do not approve of Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war.

"She would energize the Black, brown, and Asian Pacific members of our coalition...she would immediately pull the dispirited youth of our country back into the fold," said Tim Ryan, a former Democratic Congressman from Ohio, in a recent op-ed.

Democratic and Republican suburban women may also be more comfortable with her then Trump or Biden, he said.

As vice president, Harris's public Israel strategy is identical to Biden's, although she was the first senior leader of the US government to call for a ceasefire in March.

"Simply swapping out the candidate does not address the central concern" of the movement, said Abbas Alawieh, a member of the national "Uncommitted" movement that withheld votes for Biden in the primary based on his support of Israel.

If Biden were to step aside, there could be a competition between other Democrats to become the nominee.

If the party were then to choose another candidate over Harris, some Democrats say it could lose the support of many Black voters who were critical to Biden's election win in 2020.

"There is no alternative besides Kamala Harris," said Adrianne Shropshire, executive director of Black voter outreach group BlackPAC.

"If the Democratic Party thinks that they have problems now with their base being confused... Jump over the Black woman, the vice president, and I don't think the Democratic Party actually recovers."

TOO LEFTY?

However, Harris may struggle to reel in moderate Democrats and the independent voters who like Biden's centrist policies, some Democratic donors said. Both parties seek independents to help pull them over the finishing line in presidential elections.

"Her greatest weakness is that her public brand has been associated with the far left wing of the Democratic Party ... and the left wing of the Democratic party cannot win a national election," said Dmitri Mehlhorn, a fundraiser and adviser to LinkedIn co-founder and Democratic megadonor Reid Hoffman. "That is the challenge that she will have to overcome if she is the nominee."

Harris would take over money raised by the Biden campaign and inherit campaign infrastructure, a critical advantage with just four months before election day on Nov. 5.

But any Democratic campaign still needs to raise hundreds of millions of dollars more before November to be successful, strategists say. And there, Harris could be a liability.

"I can tell you we have a really tough time raising money for her" said a source at the Democratic National Committee.

As a presidential candidate ahead of the 2020 election, Harris lagged Biden in raising money. She dropped out of the race in December 2019, the same month her campaign reported $39.3 million in total contributions. Biden's campaign reported $60.9 million in the same period.

However, Biden's campaign raised a record $48 million in the 24 hours after he named Harris as his running mate in 2020.

Harris's prosecutorial background could shine in a head-to-head debate against Trump, some Democrats said.

"She is incredibly focused and forceful and smart, and if she prosecutes the case against the criminality of Donald Trump, she will rip him apart," said Mehlhorn.

Republican attacks on Harris are ramping up as she has been floated as a possible Biden replacement. Conservative talking heads are re-circulating criticism leveled at her during the 2020 race, including from some Democrats, that Harris laughs too much, that she is untested, and unqualified.

Kelly Dittmar, a political science professor at Rutgers University, said the attacks are part of a long history of objectifying and denigrating women of color in politics.

"Unfortunately, the reliance on both racist and sexist attacks and tropes against women running for office is historically common and persists to this day," said Dittmar.



Nawaf Salam: Lebanon’s Prime Minister ‘Judge’ in Joseph Aoun’s First Term in Office

Lebanese Ambassador to the United Nations Nawaf Salam speaks to reporters after Security Council consultations on the situation in Libya, March 14, 2011 at United Nations headquarters. (AP)
Lebanese Ambassador to the United Nations Nawaf Salam speaks to reporters after Security Council consultations on the situation in Libya, March 14, 2011 at United Nations headquarters. (AP)
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Nawaf Salam: Lebanon’s Prime Minister ‘Judge’ in Joseph Aoun’s First Term in Office

Lebanese Ambassador to the United Nations Nawaf Salam speaks to reporters after Security Council consultations on the situation in Libya, March 14, 2011 at United Nations headquarters. (AP)
Lebanese Ambassador to the United Nations Nawaf Salam speaks to reporters after Security Council consultations on the situation in Libya, March 14, 2011 at United Nations headquarters. (AP)

Years after his name had been suggested by the Lebanese opposition to become prime minister, Judge Nawaf Salam was finally tasked on Monday with the formation of a new government under newly elected President Joseph Aoun’s first term in office.

Salam, currently serving as the head of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), was nominated by the majority of lawmakers during consultations with Aoun.

Salam was born in Beirut on December 15, 1953. He was elected as head of the ICJ in February 2024.

His nomination as prime minister was first floated by the opposition in wake of the October 2019 anti-government protests, after the resignation of Saad Hariri as PM.

The opposition at the time had proposed him as a neutral-technocratic figure who was not affiliated with the current political class. His candidacy was “vetoed” by the Shiite duo of Hezbollah and its ally the Amal movement, headed by parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.

They deemed him as the “United States’ candidate” and effectively thwarted his nomination. Hassan Diab was appointed prime minister instead.

The duo had on Monday refrained from nominating any candidate for the position of prime minister.

Diab’s government resigned after the August 4, 2020, Beirut Port explosion. Salam was again suggested as prime minister, but an agreement between the majority of political blocs led to Mustafa Adib’s appointment with 90 votes.

Adib would step down days later due to differences over the formation of the government.

Throughout that time, Salam had not taken political sides, but expressed his appreciation for MPs who had suggested his nomination.

Call for reform

He stressed the need to “save Lebanon from its plight, which demands change in how crises are handled and how work should be done. This starts with the implementation of financial and political reforms, which should focus on confronting the mentality of clientelism and quotas.”

He also underlined the importance of establishing an independent judiciary and “fortifying state institutions against sectarianism and favoritism.”

“The reforms will be meaningless if they are not based on the principles of fairness, social justice and the protection of rights and public and private freedoms.”

He vowed that he will always work alongside figures who “are committed to change to reform the state and allow it to impose its sovereignty throughout its territory and restore Lebanon’s position in the Arab world and the world’s trust in it.”

Salam and the ICJ

Salam’s appointment as head of the ICJ had alarmed Israel. He had taken clear stances against Israel and openly supported the Palestinian cause.

Israel’s Jerusalem Post said he has a “long history in opposing Israel through his statements and stances.” It recalled a tweet aimed at Israel in 2015, in which he said: “Unhappy birthday to you, 48 years of occupation.”

Salam is a member of a prominent family from Beirut. His grandfather “Abou Ali” Salim Ali Salam (1868-1938) was a leading figure in the capital. He was a member of the Ottoman parliament and head of its municipality in 1908.

Nawaf’s father, Abdullah Salam, was a prominent businessman and one of the founders of Middle East Airlines, Lebanon’s national carrier.

One of his uncles is former Prime Minister Saeb Salam, who served in that post four times between 1952 and 1973. Tammam Salam is a cousin who served as prime minister twice between 2014 and 2016.

Nawaf Salam holds a doctorate in political science from France’s prestigious Sciences Po university as well as a doctorate in history from France’s Sorbonne University. He also has a Master of Laws degree from Harvard Law School. Salam has worked as a lecturer at several universities, including the American University of Beirut.

Prior to heading the ICJ, he served as Lebanon’s ambassador to the United Nations between 2007 and 2017. He also represented the country at the UN Security Council between 2010 and 2011.

His publications include “Lebanon Between Past and Future”, published in Beirut in 2021.