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Biden's Withdrawal Injects Uncertainty Into Wars, Trade Disputes and Other Foreign Policy Challenges

FILE - President Joe Biden speaks at a news conference July 11, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)
FILE - President Joe Biden speaks at a news conference July 11, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)
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Biden's Withdrawal Injects Uncertainty Into Wars, Trade Disputes and Other Foreign Policy Challenges

FILE - President Joe Biden speaks at a news conference July 11, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)
FILE - President Joe Biden speaks at a news conference July 11, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)

Joe Biden's withdrawal from the US presidential race injects greater uncertainty into the world at a time when Western leaders are grappling with wars in Ukraine and Gaza, a more assertive China in Asia and the rise of the far-right in Europe.
During a five-decade career in politics, Biden developed extensive personal relationships with multiple foreign leaders that none of the potential replacements on the Democratic ticket can match. After his announcement, messages of support and gratitude for his years of service poured in from near and far, said The Associated Press.
The scope of foreign policy challenges facing the next US president makes clear how consequential what happens in Washington is for the rest of the planet. Here's a look at some of them.
ISRAEL With Vice President Kamala Harris being eyed as a potential replacement for Biden, Israelis on Sunday scrambled to understand what her candidacy would mean for their country as it confronts increasing global isolation over its military campaign against Hamas.
Israel’s left-wing Haaretz daily newspaper ran a story scrutinizing Harris’ record of support for Israel, pointing to her reputation as Biden’s “bad cop" who has vocally admonished Israel for its offensive in Gaza. In recent months, she has gone further than Biden in calling for a cease-fire, denouncing Israel's invasion of Rafah and expressing horror over the civilian death toll in Gaza.
“With Biden leaving, Israel has lost perhaps the last Zionist president,” said Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli consul general in New York. “A new Democratic candidate will upend the dynamic.”
Biden's staunch defense of Israel since Hamas' Oct. 7 attack has its roots in his half-century of support for the country as a senator, vice president, then president. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant thanked Biden for his “unwavering support of Israel over the years.”
“Your steadfast backing, especially during the war, has been invaluable,” Gallant wrote on X.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog praised Biden as a “symbol of the unbreakable bond between our two peoples" and a “true ally of the Jewish people.” There was no immediate reaction from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, an ally of former President Donald Trump whose history of cordial relations with Biden has come under strain during the Israel-Hamas war.
UKRAINE Any Democratic candidate would likely continue Biden’s legacy of staunch military support for Ukraine. But frustration with the Biden administration has grown in Ukraine and Europe over the slow pace of US aid and restrictions on the use of Western weapons.
“Most Europeans realize that Ukraine is increasingly going to be their burden,” said Sudha David-Wilp, director of the Berlin office of the German Marshall Fund, a research institute. “Everyone is trying to get ready for all the possible outcomes.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on X that he respected the “tough but strong decision” by Biden to drop out of the campaign, and he thanked Biden for his help “in preventing (Russian President Vladimir) Putin from occupying our country.”
Trump has promised to end Russia's war on Ukraine in one day if he is elected — a prospect that has raised fears in Ukraine that Russia might be allowed to keep the territory it occupies.
Trump's vice presidential pick, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, is among Congress’ most vocal opponents of US aid for Ukraine and has further raised the stakes for Kyiv.
Russia, meanwhile, dismissed the importance of the race, insisting that no matter what happened, Moscow would press on in Ukraine.
“We need to pay attention,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying by a pro-Russian tabloid. “We need to watch what will happen and do our own thing."
CHINA In recent months, both Biden and Trump have tried to show voters who can best stand up to Beijing’s growing military strength and belligerence and protect US businesses and workers from low-priced Chinese imports. Biden has hiked tariffs on electric vehicles from China, and Trump has promised to implement tariffs of 60% on all Chinese products.
Trump’s “America First” doctrine exacerbated tensions with Beijing. But disputes with the geopolitical rival and economic colossus over wars, trade, technology and security continued into Biden's term.
China's official reaction to the US presidential race has been careful. The official Xinhua news agency treated the story of Biden’s decision as relatively minor. The editor of the party-run Global Times newspaper, Hu Xijin, downplayed the impact of Biden's withdrawal.
“Whoever becomes the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party may be the same," he wrote on X. “Voters are divided into two groups, Trump voters and Trump haters.”
IRAN With Iran's proxies across the Middle East increasingly entangled in the Israel-Hamas war, the US confronts a region in disarray.
Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis struck Tel Aviv for the first time last week, prompting retaliatory Israeli strikes inside war-torn Yemen. Simmering tensions and cross-border attacks between Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group and the Israeli military have raised fears of an all-out regional conflagration.
Hamas, which also receives support from Iran, continues to fight Israel even nine months into a war that has killed 38,000 Palestinians and displaced over 80% of Gaza's population.
The US and its allies have accused Iran of expanding its nuclear program and enriching uranium to an unprecedented 60% level, near-weapons-grade levels.
After then-President Trump in 2018 withdrew from Tehran’s landmark nuclear deal with world powers, Biden said he wanted to reverse his predecessor's hawkish anti-Iran stance. But the Biden administration has maintained severe economic sanctions against Iran and overseen failed attempts to renegotiate the agreement.
The sudden death of Ebrahim Raisi — the supreme leader's hard-line protege — in a helicopter crash vaulted a new reformist to the presidency in Iran, generating new opportunities and risks. Masoud Pezeshkian has said he wants to help Iran open up to the world but has maintained a defiant tone against the US.
EUROPE AND NATO Many Europeans were happy to see Trump go after his years of disparaging the European Union and undermining NATO. Trump's seemingly dismissive attitude toward European allies in last month's presidential debate did nothing to assuage those concerns.
Biden, on the other hand, has supported close American relations with bloc leaders.
That closeness was on stark display after Biden's decision to bow out of the race. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called his choice “probably the most difficult one in your life.” The newly installed British prime minister, Keir Starmer, said he respected Biden’s “decision based on what he believes is in the best interests of the American people.”
There was also an outpouring of affection from Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris, who called Biden a “proud American with an Irish soul."
The question of whether NATO can maintain its momentum in supporting Ukraine and checking the ambitions of other authoritarian states hangs in the balance of this presidential election, analysts say.
“They don't want to see Donald Trump as president. So there's quite a bit of relief but also quite a bit of nervousness" about Biden's decision to drop out, said Jeremy Shapiro, research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Like many in the United States, but perhaps more so, they are really quite confused.”
MEXICO The close relationship between Mexico and the US has been marked in recent years by disagreements over trade, energy and climate change. Since President Andrés Manuel López Obrador took power in 2018, both countries have found common ground on the issue of migration – with Mexico making it more difficult for migrants to cross its country to the US border and the US not pressing on other issues.
The López Obrador administration kept that policy while Trump was president and continued it into Biden's term.
On Friday, Mexico’s president called Trump “a friend” and said he would write to him to warn him against pledging to close the border or blaming migrants for bringing drugs into the United States.
“I am going to prove to him that migrants don’t carry drugs to the United States,” he said, adding that “closing the border won’t solve anything, and anyway, it can’t be done.”

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‘Caesar’s’ Partner ‘Sami’: I Wept at First When I Saw Pictures, Then Became Emotionally Numb

Syrians gather outside a prison in Damascus the day after Assad’s fall, hoping to uncover the fate of their missing loved ones (AFP)
Syrians gather outside a prison in Damascus the day after Assad’s fall, hoping to uncover the fate of their missing loved ones (AFP)
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‘Caesar’s’ Partner ‘Sami’: I Wept at First When I Saw Pictures, Then Became Emotionally Numb

Syrians gather outside a prison in Damascus the day after Assad’s fall, hoping to uncover the fate of their missing loved ones (AFP)
Syrians gather outside a prison in Damascus the day after Assad’s fall, hoping to uncover the fate of their missing loved ones (AFP)

In the final installment of his interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Osama Othman, the man who smuggled the “Caesar Files” documenting Syrian torture victims, described how the photos became a haunting part of his life.
“I lived with these images for years until the victims felt like friends,” he said.
Othman recalled his early emotional struggles.
“At first, I cried whenever I saw the photos,” he said.
“But over time, my feelings went numb. When I cried, I felt human. But when I started looking at the pictures coldly, just searching for specific ones, I felt like a stranger to myself. Bashar al-Assad disfigured the victims physically and destroyed us emotionally.”
For 11 years, Othman was known only by his codename “Sami” until he revealed his identity through Asharq Al-Awsat.
He shared one of the most heartbreaking moments: “Hearing a mother or wife recognize a loved one in the photos and say, ‘Thank God they’re dead. At least the waiting is over.’ It’s a pain that breaks your heart.”
Among the nearly 27,000 photos, some left a lasting impression on Othman. He mentioned victims with large tattoos of Assad on their chests and security officers smiling next to mutilated bodies, as if posing for a tourist photo.
The following is the text of the interview:
How did you handle seeing so many torture photos?
“The first images I got from ‘Caesar’ were devastating. You can’t imagine,” said Othman. “It’s one thing to see someone killed in a battle or a crime—you can understand it. But when you see photos of victims with burn marks all over their chests, it’s beyond comprehension.”
Othman shared how he coped.
“I saw these victims as my family—my brother, my father. That made it hurt even more. I felt their pain as if it was my own. What kind of person tortures someone like this? If they were going to die in prison, just kill them. Why subject them to such barbaric torture?”
“No regime in history has gone to such lengths to detain and torture its own people in ways no sane mind can comprehend. The cruelty is unimaginable,” he added.
Did you suffer from sleepless nights and tears?
“In the beginning, I couldn’t stop crying,” said Othman.
“These victims aren’t just numbers. They had mothers waiting for them, children, siblings, and lives. Assad turned them into photos with numbers. Even now, 10 years later, we have thousands of images with no names. We hoped to access records linking these numbers to identities when the regime fell, but that hasn’t happened.”
Othman and the Caesar Files for Justice organization are now working on a solution.
“We’re creating an app to match missing persons’ photos from families with our files, using forensic methods like skull measurements and other details beyond what the eye can see.”
Over time, Othman’s emotions changed.
“After looking at thousands of photos, certain details stick with you. For example, Branch 227 reminds me of victims with eyes gouged out, while Branch 215 committed over half of the recorded violations. These numbers and images are burned into my memory. I’ve seen so many that I can often tell which branch they came from at a glance.”
“These victims felt like my friends,” said Osama Othman.
“In some photos, you could see a victim screaming in their final moments, their mouth frozen open. That silent scream, heard only by God, reached us through the images. I felt as if they were entrusting me with a responsibility.”
Over time, Othman’s emotions dulled.
“At first, I cried and knew I was still human. But later, as I searched through the photos without feeling, I felt like a stranger to myself. Assad didn’t just destroy the victims physically—he broke us emotionally too.”
Were doctors involved in torture?
“There were reports of killings in hospitals,” confirmed Othman.
“We had photos of victims with medical tubes still in their arms and bandages on their bodies. It’s unclear what happened—were they arrested and taken to the hospital, or detained directly from there? I don’t know.”
Othman emphasized the lack of evidence.
“Without proof, I can’t confirm these claims. Some doctors have faced trials in Germany for alleged abuses against detainees, but many stories circulating publicly lack the legal backing to hold up in court.”
“Unfortunately,” he added, “any claims of torture or killings without solid evidence can’t withstand scrutiny in any court.”
The pictures uncovered the fate of some missing people, did the relatives of those missing contact you and how did you feel about them?
Othman frequently received photos from families of the missing, hoping to find their loved ones among the Caesar Files.
“Relatives would send me images, asking if their loved ones were in the files,” Othman said.
“I would compare these photos with thousands in the Caesar Files, searching for similarities.”
Othman explained that the process was slow and painstaking.
“It took a lot of time, but often I was able to find a match.”
Othman described the emotional toll of working with the Caesar Files.
“Often, when we send full-body images of victims to their families, it’s not their loved one. But sometimes, it is. What’s most heartbreaking is hearing them say ‘Thank God, thank God.’ Why? Because they’re relieved their loved one has died. A mother or wife says this in agony, grateful that their suffering has ended. This makes you wonder—how could a mother see her son tortured and dead, yet say ‘thank God’?”
Othman also recalled disturbing images.
“We have photos of victims who lost their eyes. One photo shows a man with a tattoo of Bashar al-Assad’s face, and the words ‘Syria, Assad’ under it. This man was tortured to death in the Air Force Intelligence branch in Damascus.”
One image, Othman said, still haunts him.
“In another, there are many bodies in a cart, from different branches, not just one. Some bodies are piled up outside a garage, decaying. What’s chilling is a soldier smiling in the background. It makes you question—why is he smiling? Is it happiness, or has he lost all sense of feeling in the face of such cruelty?”
Othman described a disturbing photo of hospital staff smiling, seemingly unaware of the horror around them.
“In the background, you can see bodies wrapped in plastic, others on tables, and some limbs visible. Hospital corridors were used to wrap up the bodies,” he said.
Othman also pointed to detailed images of victims’ eyes, which forensic experts can use to assess injuries and decay caused by insects.
He emphasized the pain of sharing these images.
“I don’t want to show more—it’s too painful for viewers and the victims’ families. But our message has reached the world. After 10 years, the Caesar Files exposed the regime’s crimes, and today, institutions and former prisoners are revealing even more about these atrocities.”
How did you feel about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s asylum offer to Assad?
Othman expressed his reaction to Russian President Vladimir Putin granting Assad asylum.
“Since Russia’s intervention in Syria in 2015, the Russian regime has been a partner in the Syrian regime’s crimes,” Othman said.
“We viewed the Russian officials as true partners in these atrocities, and they likely bear greater responsibility than the Syrian regime itself.”
Othman was not surprised by Assad seeking refuge in Russia.
“I don’t think this asylum will last long. We are committed to working tirelessly to bring Assad back to Syria, recover the stolen funds, and ensure he is prosecuted in Damascus.”
Othman shared his hopes for justice in Syria, expressing his desire to see Assad in the defendant’s cage.
“I pray I live long enough to witness that moment, just as I lived to hear the news of Assad's fall and the liberation of Damascus,” he said.
Asked whether Assad knew about the atrocities taking place in Syrian prisons, Othman was firm.
“In Syria, nothing happens without the president knowing. This is a repressive, security-driven regime led by Assad, or previously by his father, Hafez al-Assad. No security official under this regime would act without the president’s approval.”
Othman acknowledged that while they lack direct evidence linking Assad to specific crimes, the responsibility falls on the heads of the security agencies.
“Legally, the blame lies directly with the heads of security agencies, as the chain of command flows from them. But in Syria, everyone knows that even the smallest actions in any security branch or prison are part of a systematic plan known and approved by the regime's top leadership.”
On whether the victims in the Caesar Files were from specific regions or sects, Othman clarified, “The victims in the Caesar Files are Syrians, and we defend all Syrians. Since the victims are identified by numbers, not names, I can’t determine if they belong to a particular sect or group.”
However, he noted signs of certain affiliations.
“Some victims have tattoos on their bodies. You might be surprised to learn that several victims have a large tattoo of Bashar al-Assad on their chests. You could assume these men were Assad supporters. I don’t know their sects, but someone who tattoos Bashar al-Assad on their body surely has strong support for him.”
Othman pointed out that some tattoos found on victims might provide clues about their identity, but not with certainty.
“A tattoo of Palestine, for example, isn’t unique to Palestinians. We all support Palestine. But it’s likely this person was Palestinian, especially from the Palestinian community in Syria,” he said.
He emphasized that tattoos could hint at political beliefs or nationalities, but he wouldn't make assumptions.
“These tattoos may suggest political views or connections to certain countries, but I can't say for sure if the victims belonged to a specific sect or group.”
Othman added that once names are linked to numbers, he may be able to provide more concrete answers.
“When we can match names to numbers, I'll be able to say if many of these victims came from a particular sect.”
Do you believe that Syria is on its way to a rebirth?
Othman shared cautious hope for Syria’s future.
“God willing, a new Syria will be born,” he said, but added a note of caution.
“I don’t want to be pessimistic, but the real fight for Syria's rebuilding began on December 8, 2024, with Assad’s fall and Damascus’ liberation. Everything before that was just about toppling the regime and removing its leader.”
When will you return to Syria?
Othman said he is eager to return to Syria but faces administrative hurdles.
“I’m waiting for the right moment, but there are still many bureaucratic obstacles,” he explained.
“If it were possible, I would have gone back earlier.”
Regarding his fears due to his involvement in the Caesar Files, Othman admitted the risks remain.
“The fear is still there. We hid our identities to protect ourselves and our families, and that need still exists,” he said.
“The risks are greater now because we are pushing for accountability. This puts us in conflict with many people. I know the dangers, but I’m committed to this path and prepared for whatever comes. If I could do more from hiding, I would, but now it's important to be visible and move the case forward.”