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Why the Israel-Hezbollah Conflict is Heating Up Again

Border fence between Lebanon and Israel (AFP)
Border fence between Lebanon and Israel (AFP)
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Why the Israel-Hezbollah Conflict is Heating Up Again

Border fence between Lebanon and Israel (AFP)
Border fence between Lebanon and Israel (AFP)

A deadly rocket strike in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights has added to concerns that Israel and the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah could be sucked into a full-scale war - something they have both previously indicated they want to avoid but for which they have also said they are ready.
Israel said on Sunday it would strike hard at Hezbollah after accusing the group of killing 12 children and teenagers in a rocket attack on a football field in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Hezbollah denied any responsibility for the attack on Majdal Shams, the deadliest in Israel or Israeli-annexed territory since Hamas' Oct. 7 assault sparked the war in Gaza, reported Reuters.
This is the background to hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah:
WHY ARE THEY FIGHTING?
Hezbollah began trading fire with Israel on Oct. 8, a day after the Palestinian militant group Hamas attacked communities in southern Israel and sparked the Gaza war.
Hezbollah, a Hamas ally, says its attacks aim to support Palestinians who are under Israeli bombardment in Gaza.
The Gaza war has drawn in Iran-backed militants across the region. Hezbollah is widely deemed the most powerful member of the Iran-backed network, known as the Axis of Resistance.
Hezbollah has said repeatedly it will not halt its attacks on Israel unless a ceasefire in Gaza comes into force.
While linked to Gaza, the conflict has its own dynamics.
Israel and Hezbollah have fought numerous wars.
The last was in 2006.
Israel has long viewed Hezbollah as the biggest threat at its borders and has been deeply alarmed by its growing arsenal, and the foothold it has established in Syria.
Hezbollah's ideology is largely defined by conflict with Israel. It was founded by Iran's Revolutionary Guards in 1982 to fight Israeli forces that had invaded Lebanon that year, and waged years of guerrilla war that led Israel to withdraw from south Lebanon in 2000.
Hezbollah deems Israel an illegitimate state established on occupied Palestinian lands and wants to see it gone.
WHAT'S THE IMPACT SO FAR?
The current conflict has already taken a toll on both sides.
Tens of thousands of people have been forced to flee their homes on both sides of the border. Israeli airstrikes have pounded areas where Hezbollah operates in southern Lebanon and struck the Bekaa Valley near the Syrian border.
Israel has also occasionally hit elsewhere, notably killing a senior Hamas commander in Beirut on Jan. 2.
Israeli strikes have killed some 350 Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon and more than 100 civilians, including medics, children and journalists, according to security and medical sources and a Reuters tally of death notifications issued by Hezbollah.
The Israeli military said after Saturday's attack the death toll among civilians killed in Hezbollah attacks had risen to 23 since October, along with at least 17 soldiers. Hezbollah denied it was responsible for Saturday's attack.
In Israel, the displacement of so many Israelis is a big political issue. Officials had hoped they would be able to go home for the school year beginning Sept. 1 but that has looked increasingly unlikely as the standoff has continued.
HOW MUCH WORSE COULD IT GET?
A lot. Despite the ferocity of these hostilities, this is still seen as a relatively contained confrontation.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned in December that Beirut would be turned "into Gaza" if Hezbollah started an all-out war.
Hezbollah has previously signaled it is not seeking to widen the conflict while also saying it is ready to fight any war imposed on it and warning that it has used only a small part of its capabilities so far.
Any move by Israel to expand the conflict would be met by "devastation, destruction and displacement" in Israel, Hezbollah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem said in an interview with Al Jazeera in June.
Past wars have inflicted heavy damage.
In 2006, Israeli strikes leveled large areas of Beirut's Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs, knocked out Beirut airport, and hit roads, bridges and other infrastructure. Nearly 1 million people in Lebanon fled their homes.
In Israel, the impact included 300,000 people fleeing their homes to escape Hezbollah rockets and some 2,000 homes destroyed.
Hezbollah has a far bigger arsenal than in 2006, including rockets it says can hit all parts of Israel.
It has demonstrated advances in its weaponry since October, shooting down Israeli drones, launching its own explosive drones into Israel, and firing more sophisticated guided missiles.
Israeli troops have invaded Lebanon several times in the past, reaching as far as Beirut in the 1982 invasion that aimed to crush Lebanon-based Palestinian guerrillas.
IS ESCALATION AVOIDABLE?
Much will depend on what happens in Gaza, where efforts to agree a ceasefire and a return of Israeli hostages have faltered. A ceasefire there could help bring about a rapid de-escalation of tensions in southern Lebanon.
The United States, which deems Hezbollah a terrorist group, has been at the heart of diplomatic efforts aimed at easing the conflict.
Hezbollah has signaled its eventual openness to an agreement that benefits Lebanon, but has said there can be no discussions until Israel halts the Gaza offensive.
Israel has also said it would prefer a diplomatic settlement that would restore security in the north, but says it is also prepared for a military offensive to achieve the same goal.
The US official at the heart of diplomatic contacts, Amos Hochstein, brokered an unlikely diplomatic deal between Lebanon and Israel in 2022 over their disputed maritime boundary.
Hochstein said on May 30 he did not expect peace between Hezbollah and Israel but that a set of understandings could remove some of the impetus for conflict and establish a recognized border between Lebanon and Israel.
A French proposal submitted to Beirut in February included elite Hezbollah fighters withdrawing 10 km (6 miles) from the frontier and negotiations aimed at settling disputes over the land border.

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Trump’s Germany Troop Cuts Show Limits of NATO Efforts to Keep US on Board

Combat aircraft from a NATO country stand in front of a hangar during a fighter plane maneuver exercise at the American military's Ramstein Air Base, near Ramstein-Miesenbach, Germany, June 6, 2024. (Reuters)
Combat aircraft from a NATO country stand in front of a hangar during a fighter plane maneuver exercise at the American military's Ramstein Air Base, near Ramstein-Miesenbach, Germany, June 6, 2024. (Reuters)
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Trump’s Germany Troop Cuts Show Limits of NATO Efforts to Keep US on Board

Combat aircraft from a NATO country stand in front of a hangar during a fighter plane maneuver exercise at the American military's Ramstein Air Base, near Ramstein-Miesenbach, Germany, June 6, 2024. (Reuters)
Combat aircraft from a NATO country stand in front of a hangar during a fighter plane maneuver exercise at the American military's Ramstein Air Base, near Ramstein-Miesenbach, Germany, June 6, 2024. (Reuters)

European officials have been working on ways to convince Donald Trump to keep the United States in NATO despite severe tensions over the Iran war. But his abrupt move to cut US forces in Germany is the latest sign that such efforts have their limits and are far from certain to succeed.

The substance of the decision announced on Friday to remove 5,000 troops from Germany did not come as a surprise to NATO officials. European leaders have agreed with the US president that Europeans will take over more responsibility for their own security from US forces.

Dropping a plan to deploy long-range US Tomahawk missiles to Germany was more concerning for Berlin. But even that was not a huge shock, as that deal was made by Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, and US Tomahawk stocks have been depleted by the US-Israeli war against Iran.

More alarming for European governments was how the move was made – with little prior notification or consultation and with US officials linking it to Trump’s displeasure at German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s criticism of US conduct of the Iran war.

“What is worrying is not ‌the figure of ‌5,000 troops, but the political signal from Washington that longstanding, absolutely reliable partnerships no longer seem to count ‌for ⁠anything and appear to ⁠be subject to arbitrary decisions,” said Siemtje Moeller, a senior lawmaker from Germany’s Social Democrats, who are part of Merz’s governing coalition.

The move followed accusations by Trump that US allies have not been doing enough to support the US in the Iran war and suggestions by him that this meant Washington no longer needs to honor the alliance’s Article 5 mutual defense clause.

Trump also pushed the alliance to the brink by threatening to take Greenland from Denmark, a fellow NATO member. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte helped to defuse that crisis but the underlying dispute has not been resolved.

European diplomats say they fear Trump may make further moves that could test the alliance before a summit of its 32 national leaders in Ankara in July, especially if the Iran war is not over by ⁠then and he is still venting anger at allies.

"The longer game for NATO and European allies ‌is getting through Ankara," said a European diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity. "We need to do ‌things with the Americans if we can, and without them if we must.”

EUROPEANS PUSH BACK ON TRUMP CRITICISM

Defense experts say Europeans have little choice but to ‌try to keep the US on board, given their heavy reliance on the United States to deter any possible attack by Russia.

As part of ‌their efforts to convince Trump of the value of European allies, officials have said many European countries are honoring agreements to allow US forces to use bases on their soil and fly in their airspace during the Iran campaign - even if they are not keen to advertise the fact, given Trump and the war are deeply unpopular in much of Europe.

While Spain has banned the use of bases on its territory, Rutte said countries including Britain, Croatia, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Montenegro, Portugal and ‌Romania were delivering on their commitments.

European officials are also working to make a broader case to Trump, other US officials, lawmakers and Republican-friendly think tanks that it is in their interests to stick with the North ⁠Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Their efforts include highlighting ⁠support for a post-war mission in the Strait of Hormuz, underlining the military and economic value of European allies and demonstrating that Europe is taking on a greater role within NATO, diplomats say.

DIFFERENCES AMONG NATO LEADERS ON IRAN WAR

While there is broad support for these efforts across the alliance, the crisis has also exposed stark differences among European NATO leaders over how to respond to the war on Iran.

Leaders of Western European countries such as Spain, France and Germany have voiced blunt criticism, reflecting domestic public opinion but risking Trump’s ire.

Rutte, by contrast, has made clear he sees anti-war rhetoric as unhelpful. Some eastern European countries, fearing any weakening of NATO will embolden Russia, have taken a similar view, diplomats say.

“When European countries are saying ‘this is not our war’, it irritated the hell out of me,” Rutte told "What the Hell is Going on", a podcast hosted by the American Enterprise Institute think tank, after meeting Trump in Washington last month.

On Monday, Rutte also said several countries were "pre-positioning essential logistical and other support" such as minehunters and minesweepers near the Gulf to be ready for a possible Strait of Hormuz mission after the war ends.

The Netherlands, Belgium and Germany have said they are sending ships that could be part of such a mission. France, which is leading planning of a potential mission with Britain, also has ships in the Middle East that could take part.

"European leaders have gotten the message, they’ve heard the message from the US loud and clear," Rutte told reporters at a summit of European leaders in Armenia.

Features

Families Evacuated from Gaza Enjoy a Day to Decompress at Rome’s Ancient Baths

Families of Palestinian refugees who have arrived in Italy from the Gaza Strip through humanitarian corridors due to serious medical reasons, take part in a visit to Rome's Baths of Caracalla offered by the "Guides for Gaza" association, Sunday, May 3, 2026. (AP)
Families of Palestinian refugees who have arrived in Italy from the Gaza Strip through humanitarian corridors due to serious medical reasons, take part in a visit to Rome's Baths of Caracalla offered by the "Guides for Gaza" association, Sunday, May 3, 2026. (AP)
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Families Evacuated from Gaza Enjoy a Day to Decompress at Rome’s Ancient Baths

Families of Palestinian refugees who have arrived in Italy from the Gaza Strip through humanitarian corridors due to serious medical reasons, take part in a visit to Rome's Baths of Caracalla offered by the "Guides for Gaza" association, Sunday, May 3, 2026. (AP)
Families of Palestinian refugees who have arrived in Italy from the Gaza Strip through humanitarian corridors due to serious medical reasons, take part in a visit to Rome's Baths of Caracalla offered by the "Guides for Gaza" association, Sunday, May 3, 2026. (AP)

The Baths of Caracalla, the sumptuously decorated public baths complex near the Colosseum, were long a place of leisure, healthcare and relaxation for ancient Romans.

On Sunday, the place provided a different sort of decompression to a group of Palestinian children and their families who had been evacuated from Gaza for medical care, thanks to Italy’s program of “humanitarian corridors.”

“We brought families with children so they could experience visiting an ancient archaeological site," Luisa delle Fratte, a tour guide in the group Guides for Gaza, told The Associated Press. "We also offered them a snack, some games and moments of social interaction and togetherness.”

Ordinary Italian families milled about the sprawling site, some settling on the grass to enjoy the springtime sun. The Palestinian families, all of whom now reside in Rome, blended right in — following their tour guide and translator, taking selfies in front of the ruins and watching the jets of water shooting upward from the new reflecting pool. Organizers say they intended the day as a respite from medical treatments and memories of the war.

“I was injured and lost my ability to speak, as well as mobility and normal function in my hand and leg,” 13-year-old Ahmed Skena said, struggling to string together his words. He haltingly added that he also lost his father and brother in the war.

Mariam Dawwas, 25, attended with her husband and four young children, one of whom is ill. They wound up in Italy after being displaced over 10 times.

“Thank God, I am still in a better situation than in Gaza, away from the bombing. At least I am safe, I have shelter, and there is light for my children,” she said.

Some of the families at Caracalla on Sunday knew each other from Gaza, but hadn't seen one another since their evacuation, said delle Fratte of Guides for Gaza, a network founded last year in Umbria and Tuscany, and recently expanded to Naples and Rome.

"It was very beautiful to see them there embracing again and meeting one another once more,” she said.

While the Palestinian families toured the ruins, other guides offered tours to Italians in exchange for donations to support Gazzella, a nonprofit involved in child protection projects in the Gaza Strip.

The war in Gaza began with a 2023 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel, in which the fighters killed 1,200 people, most of them civilians, and abducted 251. More than 72,000 Palestinians have been killed since the start of the war, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between fighters and civilians.

The ministry, which is part of the Hamas-led government, maintains detailed casualty records that are seen as generally reliable by UN agencies and independent experts.

Features

European Leaders See Trump’s Troop Drawdown from Germany as New Proof They Must Go it Alone

An AH-64 Apache attack helicopter stands in front of a Galaxy C-5 transport plane at the US Air Base in Ramstein, western Germany, on February 22, 2017. (dpa/AFP)
An AH-64 Apache attack helicopter stands in front of a Galaxy C-5 transport plane at the US Air Base in Ramstein, western Germany, on February 22, 2017. (dpa/AFP)
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European Leaders See Trump’s Troop Drawdown from Germany as New Proof They Must Go it Alone

An AH-64 Apache attack helicopter stands in front of a Galaxy C-5 transport plane at the US Air Base in Ramstein, western Germany, on February 22, 2017. (dpa/AFP)
An AH-64 Apache attack helicopter stands in front of a Galaxy C-5 transport plane at the US Air Base in Ramstein, western Germany, on February 22, 2017. (dpa/AFP)

European leaders on Monday said that US President Donald Trump’s snap decision to pull thousands of US troops out of Germany came as a surprise but is a fresh sign that Europe must take care of its own security.

The Pentagon announced last week that it would pull some 5,000 troops out of Germany, but Trump told reporters on Saturday that “we’re going to cut way down. And we’re cutting a lot further than 5,000.”

He offered no reason for the move, which blindsided NATO, but his decision came amid an escalating dispute with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz over the US-Israeli war on Iran, and Trump’s anger that European allies have been reluctant to get involved in the conflict in the Middle East.

Asked about the decision to pull out 5,000 troops from Germany, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said: “I wouldn’t exaggerate that because I think we are expecting that Europe is taking more charge of its own security.

“I do not see those figures as dramatic, but I think they should be handled in a harmonious way inside the framework of NATO,” he told reporters in Yerevan, Armenia, where European leaders are holding a summit.

The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said “there has been a talk about withdrawal of US troops for a long time from Europe. But of course, the timing of this announcement comes as a surprise.”

“I think it shows that we have to really strengthen the European pillar in NATO,” she said.

Asked whether she believes that Trump is trying to punish Merz, who said that the US has been humiliated by Iran in talks to end the war, Kallas said: “I don’t see into the head of President Trump, so he has to explain it himself.”

Over the weekend, NATO spokesperson Allison Hart said that officials at the 32-nation military alliance “are working with the US to understand the details of their decision on force posture in Germany.”

European allies and Canada have known since just after he came to office again last year that Trump would pull troops out of Europe — indeed some left Romania in October — but US officials had pledged to coordinate any moves with their NATO allies to avoid creating a security vacuum.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte played down the move, saying that “there has been at this point disappointment on the US side” about European support for the war on Iran.

Notably France, Spain and the UK have declined to give US forces free rein to use bases on their territory to attack Iran. Spain has denied them the use of its airspace and bases there for the war.

But Rutte, who has championed Trump’s leadership at NATO despite the US president's criticism of the majority of the allies, said: “I would say the Europeans have heard a message. They are now making sure that all the bilateral basing agreements are being implemented.”

Rutte added that European nations “have decided to pre-position assets, key assets, close to the theater for the next phase.”

He provided no details, but the Europeans have insisted they would not help police the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy trade route, until the war is over.

French President Emmanuel Macron said “if the United States is ready to reopen Hormuz, that’s great. That’s what we’ve been asking for since the beginning.” But he underlined that the Europeans are not ready to get involved in any operation “that does not seem clear to us.”

In another sign of friction with Merz, Trump has accused the EU of not complying with its US trade deal and announced plans to increase tariffs next week on cars and trucks produced in the bloc to 25%, a move that would be particularly damaging to Germany, a major automobile manufacturer.

Without mentioning Trump or the United States, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen listed recent trade deals that the bloc has sealed with Australia and India, and is now working on with Mexico.

“With like-minded friends, you have stable, reliable supply chains and Europe has the biggest network of free trade agreements,” von der Leyen, who is from Germany, told reporters.