In choosing its next leader, Hamas will be looking for a candidate who can safeguard deep ties with Tehran at a time when Iranian support will be more important than ever to help the Palestinian group recover after the Gaza war, analysts say.
The armed group has several potential replacements for Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran last week. They include former leader, Khaled Meshaal, who led Hamas for 13 years from outside the Palestinian territories until passing the baton to Haniyeh in 2017.
But experts believe his chances could be hurt by past friction with Iran and its regional allies, notably Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Meshaal was Hamas leader when the group turned on Damascus during the so-called Arab Spring and declared sympathy with the rebellion against him.
Iran's support will be doubly important to Hamas as it seeks to rebuild once the guns fall silent in Gaza, devastated by Israeli bombardment since the group ignited war by attacking Israel on Oct. 7. While Hamas continues to fight in Gaza, 10 months of pummeling by Israel have hit it hard.
This consideration seems likely to boost the prospects of candidates deemed closer to Tehran, including Khalil al-Hayya, currently serving as Hamas' deputy leader for Gaza though he left the territory some years ago.
"There might have been some retreat in Meshaal's chances of taking the place of Haniyeh, because he doesn't enjoy much support from Iran since he was the one who turned against the Syrian regime and ended the Hamas presence in Damascus," said Ashraf Abouelhoul, a specialist on Palestinian issues and managing editor of the Egyptian state-owned paper Al-Ahram.
"Also, the armed wing, which is keen on the concept of the rebuilding when the war is over, will be thinking of a candidate whose relations with Iran are strong enough to ensure the rebuilding takes place," he said.
One Hamas official told Reuters the succession hadn't been settled yet and the deliberations are under way.
HAYYA SAYS HAMAS LEADERSHIP UNITED
Hayya was known to be very close to Haniyeh. He accompanied him to Tehran for the visit during which he was killed in July.
He led Hamas' negotiating team for ceasefire talks under Haniyeh's supervision and also led reconciliation talks with Hamas' Palestinian rival Fatah in past years.
Like Haniyeh, he maintained strong relations with Iran and in 2022 he led a Hamas delegation to Damascus to mend ties with Assad, declaring it a historic meeting.
Speaking as Hamas received condolences for Haniyeh's death in Qatar, Hayya said the movement's leadership remained united.
"Our will is strong and can't be broken by the martyrdom of one leader or two or three," he said. "God willing within days we will conclude our consultations to choose a new leader."
Hani al-Masri, a Palestinian political analyst, said that in less extraordinary times the group's Gaza leader, Yahya Sinwar, would have been a candidate.
Sinwar was a mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack, in which gunmen killed 1,200 people and abducted another 250, according to Israeli tallies, prompting the Israeli offensive which the Gaza health ministry says has killed 40,000 people.
Sinwar is widely believed to still be running Hamas' war from tunnels under Gaza. Hayya's chances are helped by his good ties to the Lebanese group Hezbollah, the region's most powerful Iran-aligned faction, which has been trading fire with Israel throughout the Gaza war.
Masri noted Meshaal's leadership qualities and experience but said his prospects hinged on healing the rift with Iran: "His weak point is his negative relationships with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah at a time when there is ... a joint war."
