Nearly 40,000 and Counting: The Struggle to Keep Track of Gaza Deaths

A man carries the shrouded body of a child killed in an Israeli bombardment to the hospital morgue in the south Gaza city of Rafah - AFP
A man carries the shrouded body of a child killed in an Israeli bombardment to the hospital morgue in the south Gaza city of Rafah - AFP
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Nearly 40,000 and Counting: The Struggle to Keep Track of Gaza Deaths

A man carries the shrouded body of a child killed in an Israeli bombardment to the hospital morgue in the south Gaza city of Rafah - AFP
A man carries the shrouded body of a child killed in an Israeli bombardment to the hospital morgue in the south Gaza city of Rafah - AFP

With much of Gaza reduced to rubble by 10 months of war, counting the dead has become a challenge for the health ministry, as the death toll nears 40,000.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the daily figures put out by the ministry and US President Joe Biden did so too in the early stages of the war.

But several United Nations agencies that operate in Gaza have said the figures are credible and they are frequently cited by international organizations.

Two AFP correspondents witnessed health facilities enter deaths in the ministry's database.

Gaza health officials first identify the bodies of the dead, by the visual recognition of a relative or friend, or by the recovery of personal items.

The deceased's information is then entered in the health ministry's digital database, usually including name, gender, birth date and ID number.

When bodies cannot be identified because they are unrecognisable or when no one claims them, staff record the death under a number, alongside all the information they were able to gather.

Any distinguishing marks that may help with later identification, whether personal items or a birthmark, are collected and photographed.

Gaza's health ministry has issued several statements setting out its procedures for compiling the death toll.

In public hospitals under the direct supervision of the territory's Hamas government, the "personal information and identity number" of every Palestinian killed during the war are entered in the hospital's database as soon as they are pronounced dead.

The data is then sent to the health ministry's central registry on a daily basis.

For those who die in private hospitals and clinics, their information is taken down on a form that must be sent to the ministry within 24 hours to be added to the central registry, a ministry statement said.

The ministry's "information center" then verifies the data entries to "ensure they do not contain any duplicates or mistakes", before saving them in the database, the statement added.

Gaza residents are also encouraged by Palestinian authorities to report any deaths in their families on a designated government website. The data is used for the ministry's verifications.

The ministry is staffed with civil servants that answer to the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority as well as to the Hamas-led government in Gaza.

An investigation conducted by Airways, an NGO focused on the impact of war on civilians, analysed the data entries for 3,000 of the dead and found "a high correlation" between the ministry's data and what Palestinian civilians reported online, with 75 percent of publicly reported names also appearing on the ministry's list.

The study found that the ministry's figures had become "less accurate" as the war dragged on, a development it attributed to the heavy damage to health infrastructure resulting from the war.

For instance, at southern Gaza's Nasser Hospital, one of the few still at least partly functioning, only 50 out of 400 computers still work, its director Atef al-Hout told AFP.

Israeli authorities frequently criticize the ministry's figures for failing to distinguish between combatants and civilians. But neither the army nor Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu deny the scale of the overall toll.

The press office of Gaza's Hamas government estimates that nearly 70 percent of the roughly 40,000 dead are women (about 11,000) or children (at least 16,300).

Several UN agencies, including the agency in charge of Palestinian refugees (UNRWA), have said the ministry's figures are credible.

"In the past -- the five, six cycles of conflict in the Gaza Strip -- these figures were considered as credible and no one ever really challenged these figures,", the agency's chief Philippe Lazzarini said in October.

A study by British medical review The Lancet estimated that 186,000 deaths can be attributed to the war in Gaza, directly or indirectly as a result of the humanitarian crisis it has triggered.



Strong Iran Ties Emerge as Factor in Hamas Leader Choice, Analysts Say

Former Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal receives condolences at a mourning house for assassinated Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Doha, Qatar, August 2, 2024. (Reuters)
Former Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal receives condolences at a mourning house for assassinated Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Doha, Qatar, August 2, 2024. (Reuters)
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Strong Iran Ties Emerge as Factor in Hamas Leader Choice, Analysts Say

Former Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal receives condolences at a mourning house for assassinated Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Doha, Qatar, August 2, 2024. (Reuters)
Former Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal receives condolences at a mourning house for assassinated Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Doha, Qatar, August 2, 2024. (Reuters)

In choosing its next leader, Hamas will be looking for a candidate who can safeguard deep ties with Tehran at a time when Iranian support will be more important than ever to help the Palestinian group recover after the Gaza war, analysts say.

The armed group has several potential replacements for Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran last week. They include former leader, Khaled Meshaal, who led Hamas for 13 years from outside the Palestinian territories until passing the baton to Haniyeh in 2017.

But experts believe his chances could be hurt by past friction with Iran and its regional allies, notably Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Meshaal was Hamas leader when the group turned on Damascus during the so-called Arab Spring and declared sympathy with the rebellion against him.

Iran's support will be doubly important to Hamas as it seeks to rebuild once the guns fall silent in Gaza, devastated by Israeli bombardment since the group ignited war by attacking Israel on Oct. 7. While Hamas continues to fight in Gaza, 10 months of pummeling by Israel have hit it hard.

This consideration seems likely to boost the prospects of candidates deemed closer to Tehran, including Khalil al-Hayya, currently serving as Hamas' deputy leader for Gaza though he left the territory some years ago.

"There might have been some retreat in Meshaal's chances of taking the place of Haniyeh, because he doesn't enjoy much support from Iran since he was the one who turned against the Syrian regime and ended the Hamas presence in Damascus," said Ashraf Abouelhoul, a specialist on Palestinian issues and managing editor of the Egyptian state-owned paper Al-Ahram.

"Also, the armed wing, which is keen on the concept of the rebuilding when the war is over, will be thinking of a candidate whose relations with Iran are strong enough to ensure the rebuilding takes place," he said.

One Hamas official told Reuters the succession hadn't been settled yet and the deliberations are under way.

HAYYA SAYS HAMAS LEADERSHIP UNITED

Hayya was known to be very close to Haniyeh. He accompanied him to Tehran for the visit during which he was killed in July.

He led Hamas' negotiating team for ceasefire talks under Haniyeh's supervision and also led reconciliation talks with Hamas' Palestinian rival Fatah in past years.

Like Haniyeh, he maintained strong relations with Iran and in 2022 he led a Hamas delegation to Damascus to mend ties with Assad, declaring it a historic meeting.

Speaking as Hamas received condolences for Haniyeh's death in Qatar, Hayya said the movement's leadership remained united.

"Our will is strong and can't be broken by the martyrdom of one leader or two or three," he said. "God willing within days we will conclude our consultations to choose a new leader."

Hani al-Masri, a Palestinian political analyst, said that in less extraordinary times the group's Gaza leader, Yahya Sinwar, would have been a candidate.

Sinwar was a mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack, in which gunmen killed 1,200 people and abducted another 250, according to Israeli tallies, prompting the Israeli offensive which the Gaza health ministry says has killed 40,000 people.

Sinwar is widely believed to still be running Hamas' war from tunnels under Gaza. Hayya's chances are helped by his good ties to the Lebanese group Hezbollah, the region's most powerful Iran-aligned faction, which has been trading fire with Israel throughout the Gaza war.

Masri noted Meshaal's leadership qualities and experience but said his prospects hinged on healing the rift with Iran: "His weak point is his negative relationships with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah at a time when there is ... a joint war."