Is Sinwar Really Leading Hamas from Underground?

Yahya Sinwar in Gaza on Oct. 28, 2019 (Reuters)
Yahya Sinwar in Gaza on Oct. 28, 2019 (Reuters)
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Is Sinwar Really Leading Hamas from Underground?

Yahya Sinwar in Gaza on Oct. 28, 2019 (Reuters)
Yahya Sinwar in Gaza on Oct. 28, 2019 (Reuters)

Hamas’ recent appointment of Yahya Sinwar as its leader has raised questions about his ability to guide the Palestinian movement during one of the most challenging times in its history.

Sinwar, who is Israel’s top target since the surprise attack on Oct. 7, faces immense pressure as Israeli forces search for him across the Gaza Strip.

Israel claims that Sinwar is hiding in tunnels in Khan Younis, a city in southern Gaza where he and his family live. But only a small group knows his location.

Since the war began, Sinwar has only appeared in a video released by the Israeli army, showing him in a tunnel a day after the Oct. 7 attack. Since then, he hasn’t been seen or heard from, raising doubts about whether he is still alive and leading Hamas.

Asharq Al-Awsat attempted to gather information about Sinwar’s situation, but the sensitive and complex conditions make even asking questions about him difficult.

Hamas sources in Gaza told Asharq Al-Awsat that no one within the movement knows exactly where Sinwar is, whether inside or outside Gaza. However, a small, trusted group is aware and serves as a link between him and the leadership when needed.

“These few individuals ensure his needs are met and facilitate his communication with the leadership inside and outside Gaza using complex methods,” the sources added.

It is believed that Sinwar’s brother, Mohammed, who is also a senior commander in Hamas’ al-Qassam Brigades, is responsible for overseeing Sinwar’s safety and movements.

Some analysts think Sinwar’s brother, who is also a top target for Israel, could lead the brigades if Israel has indeed killed Mohammed Deif.

Despite being out of public view, Sinwar remains actively involved in Hamas. A source confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat that Sinwar stays in regular contact with the movement's leadership through various means.

Since the war began, Sinwar has sent regular messages about operations and how to handle the challenges brought by the war. These instructions, often handwritten or typed and signed by Sinwar, are delivered secretly.

In addition to written messages, Sinwar has had direct phone contact with Hamas leaders during critical moments. A senior source confirmed that, after arranging secure conditions, Sinwar managed to make phone calls, though these took considerable effort to set up.

The source also revealed that Sinwar sent at least two written messages and one voice recording to intermediaries during key points in the negotiations. He has been closely involved in every stage of the talks, carefully reviewing proposals and discussing them with Hamas leaders.

Contrary to his reputation as a tough negotiator, Sinwar has supported flexibility in several stages of the negotiations, surprising even the intermediaries. He is determined to end the bloodshed and bring the war to a close.

Despite Sinwar’s active role in Hamas, Israel has been unable to locate him, according to sources from Asharq Al-Awsat.

Earlier this year, Israel conducted a three-month operation in Khan Younis, searching for Sinwar both above and below ground, but came up empty-handed. A second attack on the city also failed to find him.

Now, Israel is launching another major operation in Sinwar’s hometown, just days after he was appointed Hamas leader.

Israeli army chief Maj.Gen. Herzi Halevi stated that Sinwar’s appointment as Hamas leader won’t change anything but will speed up efforts to capture him.

Field sources said Israel’s operation in Khan Younis was aimed at punishing civilians for Sinwar’s selection, trying to force them into cooperating to reveal his location.

“They even dropped leaflets urging people to turn against him,” the sources noted.

However, “none of the civilians targeted by Israel know where Sinwar is, or whether he’s above or below ground.”



Conflicting Visions for Gaza’s ‘Day After’ Amid a Complex Reality

Palestinians bid farewell to a relative killed in an Israeli airstrike outside the Indonesian Hospital in Beit Lahia, northern Gaza Strip, on Saturday (AFP)
Palestinians bid farewell to a relative killed in an Israeli airstrike outside the Indonesian Hospital in Beit Lahia, northern Gaza Strip, on Saturday (AFP)
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Conflicting Visions for Gaza’s ‘Day After’ Amid a Complex Reality

Palestinians bid farewell to a relative killed in an Israeli airstrike outside the Indonesian Hospital in Beit Lahia, northern Gaza Strip, on Saturday (AFP)
Palestinians bid farewell to a relative killed in an Israeli airstrike outside the Indonesian Hospital in Beit Lahia, northern Gaza Strip, on Saturday (AFP)

As discussions over the future of Gaza continue, the conflicting visions among key players make reaching a consensus increasingly difficult. The phrase “it’s complicated,” used by US envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff to justify Israel’s continuation of the war, summarizes the deep divisions among stakeholders.

Since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, followed by Israel’s devastating war on Gaza, international efforts to define the “day after” scenario have remained unresolved.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu refuses to allow either the Palestinian Authority (PA) or Hamas to govern Gaza. Meanwhile, former US President Donald Trump envisions turning Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East”—without the PA, Hamas, or even Palestinians themselves. Arab states are considering an independent committee to manage Gaza, while the PA insists on taking sole control. Hamas, on the other hand, has proposed a support committee to oversee governance. The result is a landscape where no party shares a unified vision for post-war Gaza.

A senior Palestinian official emphasized that the PA and Arab states are relying on the US to take a firm stance and impose a solution on Israel. “There is no agreement yet. The issue must still be settled,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat. The official stressed that a binding US position, along with Arab and international support, is necessary for any effective governance plan.

While Trump and Netanyahu have outlined different visions for Gaza, behind the scenes, the US is engaged in discussions about post-war governance. Yet, Netanyahu has repeatedly avoided addressing this issue, preferring to focus on military operations. Israeli writer Avi Shilon argued in Yedioth Ahronoth that Netanyahu is prolonging the war to evade making a tough decision about Gaza’s future.

Both Witkoff and Shilon believe Hamas intends to maintain its presence in Gaza. While Witkoff insists that Hamas’ continued rule is unacceptable to Trump’s administration, he hinted that the group could participate politically if it disarms.

Witkoff also suggested that negotiations might provide a path forward, arguing that Hamas is not as ideologically rigid as some claim.

This approach aligns with US efforts to engage Hamas indirectly, recognizing that Israel has been unable to decisively eliminate the group. Shilon noted that Israel’s demand to end Hamas’ rule is justified in principle but impractical in reality.

“Israel cannot force Hamas to surrender. A group willing to sacrifice tens of thousands of its people and endure Gaza’s destruction has no incentive to return hostages if all we offer is their removal from power,” he wrote, adding that the US has come to the same realization.

Hamas responded swiftly to Witkoff’s remarks, with spokesperson Abdel Latif al-Qanoua stating that some of these proposals are under discussion with mediators. He affirmed that Hamas is open to governance arrangements in Gaza, provided they have broad consensus. “We approved the formation of a societal support committee in Gaza that does not include Hamas. We have no ambitions to govern Gaza; what matters to us is national consensus, and we are committed to its outcomes,” he said.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Aty previously outlined a comprehensive reconstruction plan for Gaza, including training Palestinian security forces in Egypt and Jordan before their deployment to the Strip. A Hamas official confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat that the group genuinely does not seek to govern Gaza, but it insists that governance arrangements be Palestinian-led, without US or Israeli dictates. “Our weapons are not up for discussion unless it leads to a Palestinian state,” the official emphasized.

The PA and Fatah have also entered the debate, calling on Hamas to relinquish control of Gaza. Fatah spokesperson Munther al-Hayek urged Hamas to step aside, warning that the upcoming period could be “even more severe” for Gaza’s civilians.

A lingering question remains: Will the October 7 attack ultimately bring Palestinians closer to statehood, or will it destroy their aspirations?

Thirty-two years after the Oslo Accords—when US sponsorship, international backing, and a strong PA seemed to pave the way for peace—Israel’s refusal to conclude negotiations has kept Palestinians in a cycle of talks, conflicts, and political paralysis. Over time, Israel’s approach has weakened the PA and, whether intentionally or not, bolstered Hamas’ influence—leading to the devastating events of October 7.

As the region contemplates Gaza’s future, the unresolved question remains: What lessons have Washington and Tel Aviv learned, and what do they truly want?