A New Round of Gaza Cease-Fire Talks is Starting. Why is a Deal So Elusive?

International mediators are hoping to kickstart stalled cease-fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas with a new round of talks meant to finally clinch a deal between the sides. But the chances of a breakthrough appear slim.
The new talks are set to begin Thursday, but Israel and Hamas have been mulling an internationally-backed proposal for more than two months that would wind down the 10-month-long war and free the roughly 110 hostages still held in Gaza, The Associated Press said.
The indirect talks have not advanced substantially during that time and sticking points remain. New terms put forward have complicated progress. And Hamas has yet to say outright whether it will participate in the new round.
Meanwhile, the fighting in Gaza rages on, the hostages continue to languish in captivity, and fears of an all-out regional war involving Iran and one of its regional proxies, Hezbollah, have surged. The killing of Hamas’ top leader in Tehran in an apparent Israeli attack further plunged the talks into uncertainty.
Here is a look at the proposed cease-fire deal and why talks have stalled:
What does the proposal look like? On May 31, US President Joe Biden detailed what he said was an Israeli cease-fire proposal, calling it “a road map" to a lasting truce and freedom for the hostages. It set off the most concentrated US push to bring about an end to the war, which was sparked by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks on southern Israel.
The original proposal involved three phases. The first would last for six weeks and include a “full and complete cease-fire,” a withdrawal of Israeli forces from all densely populated areas of Gaza, and the release of a number of hostages, including women, the elderly and the wounded, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Palestinian civilians would be able to return to their homes and humanitarian aid would be increased.
The two sides would use that six-week period to negotiate an agreement on the second phase, which Biden said would include the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers, and Israel’s full withdrawal from Gaza. The temporary cease-fire would become permanent.
The third phase would kick off a major reconstruction of Gaza, which faces decades of rebuilding from the devastation caused by the war.
What are the sticking points? Even though Biden threw his weight behind the proposal, it has not led to a breakthrough and the sides appear to have grown further apart in the weeks since.
Israel has been wary of the plan’s provision that the initial cease-fire would be extended as long as negotiations continued over the second phase. Israel seems concerned that Hamas would drag on endlessly with fruitless negotiations.
Hamas has appeared concerned that Israel would resume the war once its most vulnerable hostages were returned, a scenario reflected in some of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent comments. Israel could also make demands during this stage of negotiations that were not part of the initial deal and would be unacceptable to Hamas — and then resume the war when Hamas refuses them.
Israel has added additional demands to the initial proposal in recent weeks, according to two Egyptian officials with knowledge of the talks. In a statement Tuesday, Netanyahu's office denied this, calling the additional terms “essential clarifications.” It said Hamas has made 29 additions, without specifying which.
Egyptian officials said Israel seeks to maintain control of a strip of land along Gaza’s border with Egypt known as the Philadelphi corridor. Israel believes Hamas uses the area to smuggle in weapons through underground tunnels, which Egypt denies.
Israel also wants to maintain forces along an east-west route that bisects Gaza so that they can weed out any militants crossing into the territory's north. Netanyahu's office has said Israel wants some way to ensure this, but it denied accusations that this was an additional condition. Hamas has rejected the idea, saying Israel would use it as a pretext to prevent Palestinians from returning to their homes.
The Egyptian officials and Netanyahu's office said Israel also wants veto power over the Palestinian prisoners who would be freed. Hamas refuses to compromise on the issue, they said.
Israel also wants a list of the hostages who are still alive — another condition rejected by Hamas, according to the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss the sensitive talks with the media.
What else is complicating progress? The talks were further thrown into disarray last month when a blast killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh while he was in Tehran for the Iranian president’s inauguration. The attack was widely blamed on Israel, which has not confirmed or denied it. Biden said the apparent assassination had “not helped” cease-fire efforts, and the talks were driven into a deep freeze.
That killing came just hours after Israel assassinated a top Hezbollah commander in a strike in Beirut. Both strikes drew threats of retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah, and the fear of an all-out regional war diverted international attention away from efforts to wind down the fighting in Gaza. The killings spurred a flurry of diplomatic activity and led the US to direct military assets to the region.
Both Netanyahu and Hamas' new top leader, Yahya Sinwar, have incentives to continue the war.
Netanyahu's critics say he is dragging out the war for his own political survival. His far-right coalition partners have pledged to topple the government if he agrees to a cease-fire, what could trigger elections that might oust him from power. Netanyahu has said he has the country's best interests in mind.
Hamas has gained from the international condemnation that Israel has faced because of the war. And on a personal level, Haniyeh's killing has shown that Sinwar's own life could be on the line if he surfaces once the war ends.

Hussein Jamil held a permit to work in Israel for 22 years until the war in Gaza broke out. Now, after setting up a greenhouse in a West Bank village, he swears he'll never go back.

Harvesting his tomatoes in the occupied West Bank, the 46-year-old says his former Israeli boss has already called several times to ask him to return.

"But I told him that I would never go back to work there," he says in Bayt Dajan near Nablus, the northern West Bank's commercial center.

There, dozens of men have returned to the traditional pursuit of tilling the land, rather than board buses to queue at the heavily guarded checkpoints that lead into Israel.

"It's a very useful job and above all safer" than working in Israel, says Jamil, as he tends to his plants with his sons, AFP reported.

Israel stopped issuing work permits for Palestinians after October 7.

Israeli war in Gaza have so far left 39,790 dead, according to the health ministry in the strip.

Jamil was one of 200,000 Palestinians from the West Bank who were working in Israel legally or illegally, according to the Palestinian General Confederation of Labour, and who lost their livelihoods overnight.

Salaries in Israel are more than double what Palestinians can make in the occupied territories, according to the World Bank.

Many of those workers are now busy in the greenhouses that have sprouted up in recent months on the hillsides where, Palestinian elders say, their ancestors once grew wheat.

Working this way, "we are independent and peaceful," says Jamil, adding: "It's much better than working in Israel. Here we work on our land."

Economic prospects have dived since the war, with West Bank unemployment leaping from 12.9 percent to 32 percent in the final three months of 2023.

Some 144,000 jobs have been lost in the territory, many because of rising violence that has prompted the army to block roads, strangling economic activity.

Since October 7, at least 617 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank by the Israeli army or settlers, according to an AFP count based on official Palestinian data.

At least 18 Israelis, including soldiers, have died in Palestinian attacks in the same period, according to official Israeli data.

Every day, around $22 million in income is lost in the West Bank, according to International Labor Organization (ILO) estimates.

In Bayt Dajan alone, 300-350 men worked in Israel out of a population of 5,000.

Mazen Abu Jaish, 43, who spent 10 years working in Israel, took his time before deciding to pick up his shovel and rake and set up a tomato greenhouse.

"We waited, thinking that we would get our jobs back again after the war," he told AFP.

But unlike previous wars in Gaza, which never lasted more than a few weeks, the current conflict is fast approaching its first anniversary.

"So we ended up getting together with 35 other people from the village and we decided to start farming rather than keep waiting," says Jaish.

Since October 7, 15 hectares of Bayt Dajan have been covered by greenhouses with tomatoes and cucumbers, grown by people who used to work in Israel, municipal officials say.

Mohammad Ridwan, a member of the municipal council, sees other advantages as well, as the greenhouses are in Area C -- the West Bank land controlled solely by Israel, and vulnerable to being used for illegal Israeli settlements.

Area C makes up 59 percent of the West Bank, and 63 percent of its agricultural land.

The Norwegian Refugee Council also says that Israel had denied Palestinians access to 99 percent of the land in Area C, in many cases preventing them from growing their own fields there.

"Local unemployed people have found work and above all, we are preserving land in Area C," said Ridwan.

A New Round of Gaza Cease-Fire Talks is Starting. Why is a Deal So Elusive?