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A New Round of Gaza Cease-Fire Talks is Starting. Why is a Deal So Elusive?

Smoke rises following an Israeli air strike as internally displaced Palestinians sit next to their tents in Khan Younis camp, southern Gaza Strip, 13 August 2024. EPA/HAITHAM IMAD
Smoke rises following an Israeli air strike as internally displaced Palestinians sit next to their tents in Khan Younis camp, southern Gaza Strip, 13 August 2024. EPA/HAITHAM IMAD
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A New Round of Gaza Cease-Fire Talks is Starting. Why is a Deal So Elusive?

Smoke rises following an Israeli air strike as internally displaced Palestinians sit next to their tents in Khan Younis camp, southern Gaza Strip, 13 August 2024. EPA/HAITHAM IMAD
Smoke rises following an Israeli air strike as internally displaced Palestinians sit next to their tents in Khan Younis camp, southern Gaza Strip, 13 August 2024. EPA/HAITHAM IMAD

International mediators are hoping to kickstart stalled cease-fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas with a new round of talks meant to finally clinch a deal between the sides. But the chances of a breakthrough appear slim.
The new talks are set to begin Thursday, but Israel and Hamas have been mulling an internationally-backed proposal for more than two months that would wind down the 10-month-long war and free the roughly 110 hostages still held in Gaza, The Associated Press said.
The indirect talks have not advanced substantially during that time and sticking points remain. New terms put forward have complicated progress. And Hamas has yet to say outright whether it will participate in the new round.
Meanwhile, the fighting in Gaza rages on, the hostages continue to languish in captivity, and fears of an all-out regional war involving Iran and one of its regional proxies, Hezbollah, have surged. The killing of Hamas’ top leader in Tehran in an apparent Israeli attack further plunged the talks into uncertainty.
Here is a look at the proposed cease-fire deal and why talks have stalled:
What does the proposal look like? On May 31, US President Joe Biden detailed what he said was an Israeli cease-fire proposal, calling it “a road map" to a lasting truce and freedom for the hostages. It set off the most concentrated US push to bring about an end to the war, which was sparked by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks on southern Israel.
The original proposal involved three phases. The first would last for six weeks and include a “full and complete cease-fire,” a withdrawal of Israeli forces from all densely populated areas of Gaza, and the release of a number of hostages, including women, the elderly and the wounded, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Palestinian civilians would be able to return to their homes and humanitarian aid would be increased.
The two sides would use that six-week period to negotiate an agreement on the second phase, which Biden said would include the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers, and Israel’s full withdrawal from Gaza. The temporary cease-fire would become permanent.
The third phase would kick off a major reconstruction of Gaza, which faces decades of rebuilding from the devastation caused by the war.
What are the sticking points? Even though Biden threw his weight behind the proposal, it has not led to a breakthrough and the sides appear to have grown further apart in the weeks since.
Israel has been wary of the plan’s provision that the initial cease-fire would be extended as long as negotiations continued over the second phase. Israel seems concerned that Hamas would drag on endlessly with fruitless negotiations.
Hamas has appeared concerned that Israel would resume the war once its most vulnerable hostages were returned, a scenario reflected in some of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent comments. Israel could also make demands during this stage of negotiations that were not part of the initial deal and would be unacceptable to Hamas — and then resume the war when Hamas refuses them.
Israel has added additional demands to the initial proposal in recent weeks, according to two Egyptian officials with knowledge of the talks. In a statement Tuesday, Netanyahu's office denied this, calling the additional terms “essential clarifications.” It said Hamas has made 29 additions, without specifying which.
Egyptian officials said Israel seeks to maintain control of a strip of land along Gaza’s border with Egypt known as the Philadelphi corridor. Israel believes Hamas uses the area to smuggle in weapons through underground tunnels, which Egypt denies.
Israel also wants to maintain forces along an east-west route that bisects Gaza so that they can weed out any militants crossing into the territory's north. Netanyahu's office has said Israel wants some way to ensure this, but it denied accusations that this was an additional condition. Hamas has rejected the idea, saying Israel would use it as a pretext to prevent Palestinians from returning to their homes.
The Egyptian officials and Netanyahu's office said Israel also wants veto power over the Palestinian prisoners who would be freed. Hamas refuses to compromise on the issue, they said.
Israel also wants a list of the hostages who are still alive — another condition rejected by Hamas, according to the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss the sensitive talks with the media.
What else is complicating progress? The talks were further thrown into disarray last month when a blast killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh while he was in Tehran for the Iranian president’s inauguration. The attack was widely blamed on Israel, which has not confirmed or denied it. Biden said the apparent assassination had “not helped” cease-fire efforts, and the talks were driven into a deep freeze.
That killing came just hours after Israel assassinated a top Hezbollah commander in a strike in Beirut. Both strikes drew threats of retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah, and the fear of an all-out regional war diverted international attention away from efforts to wind down the fighting in Gaza. The killings spurred a flurry of diplomatic activity and led the US to direct military assets to the region.
Both Netanyahu and Hamas' new top leader, Yahya Sinwar, have incentives to continue the war.
Netanyahu's critics say he is dragging out the war for his own political survival. His far-right coalition partners have pledged to topple the government if he agrees to a cease-fire, what could trigger elections that might oust him from power. Netanyahu has said he has the country's best interests in mind.
Hamas has gained from the international condemnation that Israel has faced because of the war. And on a personal level, Haniyeh's killing has shown that Sinwar's own life could be on the line if he surfaces once the war ends.

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Bangladesh Protests Are Not the First Time Student Uprisings Have Helped Bring about Radical Change 

In this Nov. 21, 1989 file photo about 200,000 people gather in Wenceslas Square, Prague, Czechoslovakia. Dubbed the “Velvet Revolution” for its non-violent nature, the protests led to the resignation of the Communist Party's leadership on November 28. (AP)
In this Nov. 21, 1989 file photo about 200,000 people gather in Wenceslas Square, Prague, Czechoslovakia. Dubbed the “Velvet Revolution” for its non-violent nature, the protests led to the resignation of the Communist Party's leadership on November 28. (AP)
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Bangladesh Protests Are Not the First Time Student Uprisings Have Helped Bring about Radical Change 

In this Nov. 21, 1989 file photo about 200,000 people gather in Wenceslas Square, Prague, Czechoslovakia. Dubbed the “Velvet Revolution” for its non-violent nature, the protests led to the resignation of the Communist Party's leadership on November 28. (AP)
In this Nov. 21, 1989 file photo about 200,000 people gather in Wenceslas Square, Prague, Czechoslovakia. Dubbed the “Velvet Revolution” for its non-violent nature, the protests led to the resignation of the Communist Party's leadership on November 28. (AP)

In Bangladesh, weeks of protests against a quota system for government jobs turned into a broad uprising that forced the prime minister to flee the country and resign.

The demonstrations began peacefully weeks ago and were primarily led by students frustrated with the system that they said favored those with connections to the ruling party.

But it turned violent on July 15 as student protesters clashed with security officials and pro-government activists. Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled last week after the unrest during which nearly 300 people died, including both students and police officers.

Students or other young people have frequently played pivotal roles in popular uprisings that have brought down governments or forced them to change policies. Here are some other major cases:

Gota Go Gama protests in Sri Lanka

Like in Bangladesh, widespread protests in Sri Lanka in 2022 were able to bring down a government, and youth played a key role.

Scattered demonstrations turned into months-long protests starting in March 2022 as an economic crisis worsened in the Indian Ocean island nation, leading to a shortage of fuel, cooking gas and other essentials as well as an extended power outage.

In April, protesters primarily led by university students and other young people occupied an esplanade adjoining President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s office in the capital Colombo, demanding he and his government resign.

More people joined daily, setting up a tent camp dubbed “Gota Go Gama,” or “Gota Go Village,” a play on Gotabaya’s nickname “Gota.”

The protest site was peaceful, with organizers offering free food, water, toilets and even medical care for people. Camp leaders, many of whom were university students, held daily media briefings and made regular speeches, while the crowd was entertained by bands and plays.

The government reacted by imposing a curfew, declaring a state of emergency, allowing the military to arrest civilians and restricting access to social media, but were unable to stop the protest.

Under pressure, many ministers resigned but President Rajapaksa and his older brother, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa remained.

In May, Rajapaksa supporters attacked the protest camp, drawing widespread condemnation from across the country and forcing Prime Minister Rajapaksa to resign.

Gotabaya Rajapaksa clung to power until July, when protesters stormed his official residence, forcing him to flee the country. After taking temporary refuge in the Maldives, Rajapaksa later resigned.

His successor, Ranil Wickremesinghe, in one of his first moves as new president ousted protesters from occupied government buildings and shut down their camp, dismantling their tents in the middle of the night.

The situation has since calmed, and Wickremesinghe has been able to address the shortages of food, fuel and medicine and restore power.

Complaints continue, however, about the rise in taxes and electric bills that are part of the new government’s efforts to meet International Monetary Fund loan conditions. Former Prime Minister Rajapaksa's son Namal Rajapaksa will be running in the presidential elections this September.

Athens Polytechnic uprising in Greece

In November 1973, students at Athens Polytechnic university rose up against the military junta that ruled Greece with an iron fist for more than six years.

Military officers seized power in a 1967 coup, establishing a dictatorship marked by the arrest, exile and torture of its political opponents.

The regime's brutality and hardline rule gave rise to a growing opposition, particularly among students, culminating in the November uprising.

The protest began peacefully on Nov. 14, with students staging a strike at the Athens Polytechnic university and occupying the campus. By the next day, thousands from around Athens had joined in to support the students and the demonstrations grew, as did calls to end the dictatorship.

On Nov. 17, the military crushed the revolt when a tank smashed through the university's gates in the early hours of the day, killing several students. The number of fatalities is still disputed, but at the time the regime had announced 15 dead.

Days after the uprising, another military officer staged a coup and implemented an even harsher regime. It was short lived however, after a series of events led to a return to democracy in Greece, its birthplace, in 1974.

A prosecutor’s report issued after the return to civilian government, estimated fatalities at 34, but mentioned only 18 names. There were more than 1,100 injured.

Today, annual marches in Athens to commemorate the pro-democracy student uprising still attract thousands of people.

Kent State demonstrations in the United States

American students had long been protesting the U.S. involvement in Vietnam when President Richard Nixon authorized attacks on neutral Cambodia in April 1970, expanding the conflict in an attempt to interrupt enemy supply lines.

On May 4, hundreds of students at Ohio's Kent State University gathered to protest the bombing of Cambodia, and authorities called in the Ohio National Guard to disperse the crowd.

After failing to break up the protest with teargas, the National Guard advanced and some opened fire on the crowd, killing four students and wounding nine others.

The confrontation, sometimes referred to as the May 4 massacre, was a defining moment for a nation sharply divided over the protracted conflict, in which more than 58,000 Americans died.

It sparked a strike of 4 million students across the U.S., temporarily closing some 900 colleges and universities. The events also played a pivotal role, historians argue, in turning public opinion against the conflict in Southeast Asia.

Soweto Uprising in South Africa

In the decades-long struggle against white minority rule in South Africa, a pivotal moment came in 1976 in the Soweto area of Johannesburg.

In a series of demonstrations starting June 16, Black students from multiple schools took to the streets to protest against being forced to study in Afrikaans, the Dutch-based language of the white rulers who designed the system of racial oppression known as apartheid.

The protests spread to other areas in South Africa, becoming a flashpoint for anger at a system that denied adequate education, the right to vote and other basic rights to the country’s Black majority.

Hundreds are estimated to have died in the government crackdown that followed.

The bloodshed was epitomized by a photograph of a dying student, Hector Pieterson. The image of his limp body being carried by another teenager was seen around the world and galvanized international efforts to end South Africa’s racial segregation, though apartheid would linger for nearly two more decades.

South Africa achieved democracy with majority rule elections in 1994 and today June 16 is a national holiday.

Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia

As the Communist governments of Eastern Europe teetered in 1989, widespread demonstrations broke out in Czechoslovakia after riot police suppressed a student protest in Prague on November 17.

On November 20 as the anti-Communist protests grew, the students being joined by scores of others and some 500,000 took to the streets of Prague.

Dubbed the “Velvet Revolution” for its non-violent nature, the protests led to the resignation of the Communist Party's leadership on November 28.

By Dec. 10, Czechoslovakia had a new government and on Dec. 29, Vaclav Havel, a dissident playwright who had spent several years in prison, was elected the country’s first democratic president in a half century by a parliament still dominated by communist hard-liners.

In 1992, Czechoslovakia peacefully split into two countries, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.