Strike on Hezbollah Arms Depots Shows Extent of Israeli Intelligence Breach

This picture taken during a guided tour by the Hezbollah media office shows a man salvaging the remains of a destroyed greenhouse at the site of reported overnight Israeli bombardment on Sarein in the Bekaa valley in east-central Lebanon on August 20, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
This picture taken during a guided tour by the Hezbollah media office shows a man salvaging the remains of a destroyed greenhouse at the site of reported overnight Israeli bombardment on Sarein in the Bekaa valley in east-central Lebanon on August 20, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
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Strike on Hezbollah Arms Depots Shows Extent of Israeli Intelligence Breach

This picture taken during a guided tour by the Hezbollah media office shows a man salvaging the remains of a destroyed greenhouse at the site of reported overnight Israeli bombardment on Sarein in the Bekaa valley in east-central Lebanon on August 20, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
This picture taken during a guided tour by the Hezbollah media office shows a man salvaging the remains of a destroyed greenhouse at the site of reported overnight Israeli bombardment on Sarein in the Bekaa valley in east-central Lebanon on August 20, 2024. (Photo by AFP)

Israel’s targeting of a Hezbollah arms depot in Lebanon’s eastern Bekaa region on Monday has raised questions about whether Israel has adopted a new form of escalation and about the extent its intelligence have breached the Iran-backed party.

Israel usually targets Hezbollah arms depots in the South, but the attack in the Bekaa was a precedent.

“Following the strikes, secondary explosions were identified, indicating the presence of large amounts of weapons in the facilities struck,” the Israeli military said in a statement.

Lebanon’s Health Ministry said eleven people were wounded in the attack.

Hezbollah retaliated on Tuesday by firing rockets at the headquarters of the 210th Golan Division in the Nafah barracks and the Artillery Battalion and the Armored Brigade of the 210th Division in the Yarden barracks. It also struck the 146th Division headquarters in Gaaton.

Israeli media said Hezbollah fired over 80 rockets from Lebanon.

Israel carried out a raid on Aita al-Shaab and Talloussa in the Marjeyoun region in the South, reported Lebanon’s National News Agency.

The Bekaa attack took place days after Hezbollah released a video showing one of its largest underground tunnels. A truck loaded with large missiles was seen moving in the tunnels.

Sami Nader, director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, said the Bekaa attack was part of an Israeli escalation and strategy to permanently close the front with Lebanon.

Tel Aviv wants to eliminate Hezbollah’s threat through diplomacy or force, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Attacks on leading party figures and weapons depots are all part of preparations for a military operation or pressure to improve Israel’s negotiating position, he explained.

Moreover, he remarked that it has become obvious that Israeli intelligence has managed to breach Hezbollah, allowing it to assassinate key figures and locate arms caches.

Moreover, he ruled out the possibility of a ceasefire or comprehensive settlement being reached before the US presidential election in November.

So, the coming months will witness more military operations and negotiations to avert a major war which Iran has no interest in waging, Nader stressed.

Meanwhile, founder and CEO of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) Riad Kahwaji said the Bekaa attack continues to confirm the extent Hezbollah is exposed by Israeli intelligence.

The breach has allowed Tel Aviv to assassinate dozens of its members and commanders, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Whoever can kill these figures naturally is aware of the party’s capabilities and location of its bases and arms depots, he remarked.

By carrying out the attack on the Bekaa right after Hezbollah released the footage of its tunnels, Israel is saying that it is aware of what the party is capable of and possesses and where it is located, he noted.

Israel carried out a preemptive strike while everyone was waiting for Hezbollah to retaliate to its assassination of top military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut last month, he added.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.