Its Economy and Infrastructure Battered, Can Lebanon Afford a War With Israel?

The ferocious exchange of fire by Hezbollah and the Israeli military is raising fears of a regional war beyond the tense border.
The risks for Lebanon are far greater than in 2006, when a monthlong war with Israel ended in a draw. Lebanon has struggled with years of political and economic crises that left it indebted, without a stable electricity supply, a proper banking system and with rampant poverty, The Associated Press reported.
And with Hezbollah’s military power significantly greater, there are concerns that a new war would be far more destructive and prolonged.
Can Lebanon afford any of it?
Planning for a 2006 war repeat — or worse Since Hezbollah and Israel began firing rockets and drones at each other a day after the start of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza on Oct. 7, the conflict has been mostly limited to border towns. But with the threat of a wider war, Lebanon has scrambled to equip hospitals with supplies and prepare public schools to open up to people seeking shelter.
A rare Israeli airstrike in southern Beirut last month that killed a top Hezbollah commander set off a flurry of meetings between humanitarian organizations and the Lebanese government, said Laila Al Amine, who heads the Beirut office of international relief organization Mercy Corps. It's one of some 60 organizations helping the government with its relief efforts.
The government and UN agencies prepared a comprehensive response plan this month outlining two possible scenarios: a limited escalation that would resemble the 2006 war, with an estimated 250,000 people displaced, and a worst-case scenario of “uncontrolled conflict” that would displaced at least 1 million people.
The UN-drafted plan, a copy of which was obtained by The Associated Press, projects a monthly cost of $50 million in case of a limited escalation and $100 million if an all-out war breaks out.
The Lebanese government said that funding for the emergency will come from creditors and humanitarian aid organizations. But the authorities have struggled to find money to care for 100,000 currently displaced and an estimated 60,000 people living in conflict areas, which is costing about $24 million a month.
Environment Minister Nasser Yassin, who is spearheading relief operations, told reporters after an emergency government meeting Sunday that the morning attacks won't change the plan.
“It already presents scenarios of all the possibilities that could happen, among them is an expansion of the hostilities,” said Yassin.
Indebted and cash-strapped Lebanon desperate for aid money decades of corruption and political paralysis have left Lebanon’s banks barely functional, while electricity services are almost entirely in the hands of private diesel-run generator owners and fuel suppliers. Public service institutions rely on aid groups and international donors to function at a barebones level. Lebanese who once lived in relative comfort are receiving food and financial aid to survive.
In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic further battered the economy, and the Beirut port explosion flattened several neighborhoods in the heart of the capital. Lebanon’s banks and the ruling elite have resisted painful reforms as a condition for an International Monetary Fund bailout while the infrastructure continued to wither and living conditions worsened.
Tourism, which officials had relied on to help rebuild the economy, has also taken a hit since the border conflict with Israel.
And unlike in 2006, Lebanon is hosting more than 1 million Syrian refugees who fled the conflict in their country. Health Minister Firas Abiad told the AP earlier this month that the Lebanese health system is ill-equipped to treat the additional population in the event of an all-out war, as international funding for Syrian refugees continues to decline.
In April, Yassin said the country had only half the money needed to respond to the conflict and ensuing humanitarian needs.
Lebanon faces tougher logistics In 2006, Israel bombed the runways of Lebanon’s only airport, putting it largely out of commission, and imposed an air and sea blockade. Its bombardment crippled critical infrastructure and flattened neighborhoods, with damage and losses worth $3.1 billion, according to the World Bank.
But aid groups eventually were able to send supplies through the country’s ports and at times through the airport using the remaining limited runway space. In their assessment of the war, the UN said that their relief efforts was not in response to a humanitarian crisis. “People did not die from poor sanitation, hunger or disease. They died from bombs and shells,” UN OCHA said in a report a month after the war.
Many Lebanese were able to flee to neighboring Syria, where an uprising in 2011 plunged the country into a civil war. It's unclear how easy crossing the border would be this time, both for civilians and aid groups.
It is also unclear whether the Beirut port, still not fully rebuilt after the devastating blast in 2020, would have sufficient capacity in case of a wider war. Its damaged grain silos collapsed in 2022, and the country relies on minimal food storage due to the financial crisis.
“Lebanon apparently has stocks of food and fuel for two-three months, but what happens beyond this duration?” Al Amine said. “We only have one airport and we can’t transport things through our land borders. It would be difficult to bring items into the country.”
An empowered Hezbollah In 2006, Hezbollah reportedly had some 15,000 rockets in its arsenal, “but more recent unofficial estimates suggest this number has multiplied by almost 10 times,” said Dina Arakji, associate analyst at UK-based risk consultancy firm Control Risks.
The group has also “acquired more advanced weaponry, including precision missiles and variants of Iranian arms, as well as Chinese and Russian weaponry,” she said.
Hezbollah, which relies on a network of Iran-backed allied groups that could enter the conflict, has also substantially expanded its drone arsenal and capabilities, against which Israeli air defenses are less effective.
Lebanese officials and international diplomats hope that an elusive cease-fire agreement in Gaza will bring calm in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has said it will halt its attacks along the border if there is a cease-fire in Gaza.

In Lebanon's biggest public hospital, nurses are busy honing their life-saving skills as the spectre of all-out war looms, 10 months into intensifying clashes between Hezbollah and Israel over the Gaza war.

"We are in a state of readying for war," nurse Basima Khashfi said as she gave emergency training to young nurses and other staff at the hospital in Beirut.

"We are currently training employees -- not just nurses, but also administrative and security staff.

"With our current capabilities, we're almost prepared" in case of a wider war, she told AFP.

Lebanon has been setting in motion public health emergency plans since hostilities began, relying mostly on donor funds after five years of gruelling economic crisis.

The threat of full-blown war grew after Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah movement vowed to avenge the killings last month, blamed on Israel, of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in south Beirut.

"We're training to handle mass casualty incidents and to prepare for disasters or war," said Lamis Dayekh, a 37-year-old nurse undergoing training. "If war breaks out, we'll give everything we have."

The cross-border violence has killed nearly 600 people in Lebanon, mostly Hezbollah fighters but including at least 131 civilians, according to an AFP tally.

On the Israeli side, including in the annexed Golan Heights, 23 soldiers and 26 civilians have been killed, army figures show.

In a building next to the hospital, where the emergency operations center is located, health ministry officials are busy typing away, making calls and monitoring news of the war in Gaza and south Lebanon on large television screens.

"This is not our first war and we have been ready every time," said Wahida Ghalayini, who heads the centre, active since hostilties began in October.

She cited a massive 2020 Beirut port explosion, Hezbollah and Israel's 2006 conflict and Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war.

The health ministry's plan includes a helpline for those already displaced by war, an assessment of hospital needs, disaster training for staff and a mental health module.

The emergency room coordinates with rescue teams and hospitals in Lebanon's south.

The plan prioritizes hospitals based on their location. The "red zone", at high risk of Israeli strikes, comprises Hezbollah's strongholds in the country's south, east and Beirut's southern suburbs.

But despite Lebanon's long history of civil unrest and disasters, the public health sector now faces an economic crisis that has drained state coffers, forcing it to rely on aid.

"We need lots of medical supplies, fuel, oxygen... the Lebanese state has a financial and economic problem," said Ghalayini.

The state electricity provider barely produces power, so residents rely on expensive private generators and solar panels.

Most medical facilities depend on solar power during the day, she said, pointing to panels atop the adjacent hospital's roof and parking lot.

Lebanese Health Minister Firass Abiad said the country had enough drugs and medical supplies to last at least four months in case of a wider war.

"Efforts to increase readiness follow the (Israeli) enemy entity's threat of expanding its aggression," Abiad said in a statement.

Last month's strike that killed a top Hezbollah commander targeted a densely packed residential area, killing five civilians and wounding scores more.

It tested the readiness of Beirut hospitals in the high-risk Hezbollah stronghold, Ghalayini told AFP.

As Israel threatens full-scale war, Lebanon is also looking to health workers in Gaza for emergency planning strategies, she said.

"We are observing the Gaza emergency centre... to learn from them," she said, pointing at television footage of bloodied patients at a hospital in Gaza, where the death toll has sparked mounting concerns.

For 25-year-old nurse Mohamed Hakla, the prospect of war is frightening but "our job is to help others. I will not deprive people of this (help) because of fear".

Its Economy and Infrastructure Battered, Can Lebanon Afford a War With Israel?