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What Are Egypt’s Goals for its Military Presence in Somalia?

The recent Egyptian-Somali summit in Cairo, where Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud have signed a joint defense agreement (Egyptian Presidency)
The recent Egyptian-Somali summit in Cairo, where Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud have signed a joint defense agreement (Egyptian Presidency)
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What Are Egypt’s Goals for its Military Presence in Somalia?

The recent Egyptian-Somali summit in Cairo, where Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud have signed a joint defense agreement (Egyptian Presidency)
The recent Egyptian-Somali summit in Cairo, where Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud have signed a joint defense agreement (Egyptian Presidency)

A Somali official’s comment about Egyptian military equipment and delegations arriving in Mogadishu has sparked questions about Egypt’s goals in Somalia, especially with rising tensions with Ethiopia.

Experts told Asharq Al-Awsat that this move likely aims to strengthen ties by “turning agreements into action.”

They believe Egypt’s military presence will focus on training Somali forces and joining peacekeeping missions to help Somalia fight terrorism and maintain its borders.

Opinions are divided. Some see Egypt’s involvement as routine, while others worry it might escalate tensions with Ethiopia, which is already at odds with both Egypt and Somalia.

According to New Somalia, two Egyptian military planes arrived in Mogadishu on Tuesday, carrying equipment and officers as part of a broader strategy in the Horn of Africa. Somalia is seeking to boost its military through international partnerships.

This happens as Egypt prepares to join the African Union’s new mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), set to replace the current mission by January 2025.

While Cairo has not commented, Somalia’s Ambassador to Egypt, Ali Abdi Awari, welcomed the Egyptian military presence, noting that Egypt will be the first to support the Somali army after the current African Union forces withdraw.

The ambassador called this a “key step” in carrying out the agreements made during the recent Egyptian-Somali summit in Cairo, where both countries signed a joint defense deal.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, during a press conference on Aug. 14, announced that Egypt would participate in the renewed peacekeeping mission in Somalia, depending on Somalia’s invitation to do so.

Strategic expert Maj. Gen. Samir Farag says Egypt’s military presence in Somalia has three main goals: Toelp the Somali army improve its skills against al-Shabaab using Egyptian expertise, to support Somalia’s territorial integrity by strengthening its military, and to assist Mogadishu in securing the Suez Canal from the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

Farag does not believe Egypt’s presence is meant to counterbalance other countries in the region, pointing out that Egypt does not have military bases there.

He expects this move to avoid major tensions, especially since Somalia, an Arab country, has requested Egypt’s peacekeeping support as part of their strategic partnership.

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Its Economy and Infrastructure Battered, Can Lebanon Afford a War With Israel?

Passengers wait for their flights at Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport, following the exchange between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon, in the Southern Suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, 25 August 2024. EPA/ABBAS SALMAN
Passengers wait for their flights at Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport, following the exchange between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon, in the Southern Suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, 25 August 2024. EPA/ABBAS SALMAN
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Its Economy and Infrastructure Battered, Can Lebanon Afford a War With Israel?

Passengers wait for their flights at Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport, following the exchange between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon, in the Southern Suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, 25 August 2024. EPA/ABBAS SALMAN
Passengers wait for their flights at Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport, following the exchange between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon, in the Southern Suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, 25 August 2024. EPA/ABBAS SALMAN

The ferocious exchange of fire by Hezbollah and the Israeli military is raising fears of a regional war beyond the tense border.
The risks for Lebanon are far greater than in 2006, when a monthlong war with Israel ended in a draw. Lebanon has struggled with years of political and economic crises that left it indebted, without a stable electricity supply, a proper banking system and with rampant poverty, The Associated Press reported.
And with Hezbollah’s military power significantly greater, there are concerns that a new war would be far more destructive and prolonged.
Can Lebanon afford any of it?
Planning for a 2006 war repeat — or worse Since Hezbollah and Israel began firing rockets and drones at each other a day after the start of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza on Oct. 7, the conflict has been mostly limited to border towns. But with the threat of a wider war, Lebanon has scrambled to equip hospitals with supplies and prepare public schools to open up to people seeking shelter.
A rare Israeli airstrike in southern Beirut last month that killed a top Hezbollah commander set off a flurry of meetings between humanitarian organizations and the Lebanese government, said Laila Al Amine, who heads the Beirut office of international relief organization Mercy Corps. It's one of some 60 organizations helping the government with its relief efforts.
The government and UN agencies prepared a comprehensive response plan this month outlining two possible scenarios: a limited escalation that would resemble the 2006 war, with an estimated 250,000 people displaced, and a worst-case scenario of “uncontrolled conflict” that would displaced at least 1 million people.
The UN-drafted plan, a copy of which was obtained by The Associated Press, projects a monthly cost of $50 million in case of a limited escalation and $100 million if an all-out war breaks out.
The Lebanese government said that funding for the emergency will come from creditors and humanitarian aid organizations. But the authorities have struggled to find money to care for 100,000 currently displaced and an estimated 60,000 people living in conflict areas, which is costing about $24 million a month.
Environment Minister Nasser Yassin, who is spearheading relief operations, told reporters after an emergency government meeting Sunday that the morning attacks won't change the plan.
“It already presents scenarios of all the possibilities that could happen, among them is an expansion of the hostilities,” said Yassin.
Indebted and cash-strapped Lebanon desperate for aid money decades of corruption and political paralysis have left Lebanon’s banks barely functional, while electricity services are almost entirely in the hands of private diesel-run generator owners and fuel suppliers. Public service institutions rely on aid groups and international donors to function at a barebones level. Lebanese who once lived in relative comfort are receiving food and financial aid to survive.
In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic further battered the economy, and the Beirut port explosion flattened several neighborhoods in the heart of the capital. Lebanon’s banks and the ruling elite have resisted painful reforms as a condition for an International Monetary Fund bailout while the infrastructure continued to wither and living conditions worsened.
Tourism, which officials had relied on to help rebuild the economy, has also taken a hit since the border conflict with Israel.
And unlike in 2006, Lebanon is hosting more than 1 million Syrian refugees who fled the conflict in their country. Health Minister Firas Abiad told the AP earlier this month that the Lebanese health system is ill-equipped to treat the additional population in the event of an all-out war, as international funding for Syrian refugees continues to decline.
In April, Yassin said the country had only half the money needed to respond to the conflict and ensuing humanitarian needs.
Lebanon faces tougher logistics In 2006, Israel bombed the runways of Lebanon’s only airport, putting it largely out of commission, and imposed an air and sea blockade. Its bombardment crippled critical infrastructure and flattened neighborhoods, with damage and losses worth $3.1 billion, according to the World Bank.
But aid groups eventually were able to send supplies through the country’s ports and at times through the airport using the remaining limited runway space. In their assessment of the war, the UN said that their relief efforts was not in response to a humanitarian crisis. “People did not die from poor sanitation, hunger or disease. They died from bombs and shells,” UN OCHA said in a report a month after the war.
Many Lebanese were able to flee to neighboring Syria, where an uprising in 2011 plunged the country into a civil war. It's unclear how easy crossing the border would be this time, both for civilians and aid groups.
It is also unclear whether the Beirut port, still not fully rebuilt after the devastating blast in 2020, would have sufficient capacity in case of a wider war. Its damaged grain silos collapsed in 2022, and the country relies on minimal food storage due to the financial crisis.
“Lebanon apparently has stocks of food and fuel for two-three months, but what happens beyond this duration?” Al Amine said. “We only have one airport and we can’t transport things through our land borders. It would be difficult to bring items into the country.”
An empowered Hezbollah In 2006, Hezbollah reportedly had some 15,000 rockets in its arsenal, “but more recent unofficial estimates suggest this number has multiplied by almost 10 times,” said Dina Arakji, associate analyst at UK-based risk consultancy firm Control Risks.
The group has also “acquired more advanced weaponry, including precision missiles and variants of Iranian arms, as well as Chinese and Russian weaponry,” she said.
Hezbollah, which relies on a network of Iran-backed allied groups that could enter the conflict, has also substantially expanded its drone arsenal and capabilities, against which Israeli air defenses are less effective.
Lebanese officials and international diplomats hope that an elusive cease-fire agreement in Gaza will bring calm in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has said it will halt its attacks along the border if there is a cease-fire in Gaza.