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What to Watch for at the Harris-Trump Presidential Debate

FILE PHOTO: Former US President Donald Trump in New York City, US May 30, 2024 and US Vice President Kamala Harris in Washington, US, July 22, 2024 in a combination of file photos. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz, Nathan Howard/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Former US President Donald Trump in New York City, US May 30, 2024 and US Vice President Kamala Harris in Washington, US, July 22, 2024 in a combination of file photos. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz, Nathan Howard/File Photo
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What to Watch for at the Harris-Trump Presidential Debate

FILE PHOTO: Former US President Donald Trump in New York City, US May 30, 2024 and US Vice President Kamala Harris in Washington, US, July 22, 2024 in a combination of file photos. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz, Nathan Howard/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Former US President Donald Trump in New York City, US May 30, 2024 and US Vice President Kamala Harris in Washington, US, July 22, 2024 in a combination of file photos. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz, Nathan Howard/File Photo

Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump will battle each other next week in their first televised debate, a high-stakes clash that could give the winner an advantage in the final sprint to Election Day.
For Harris, the square-off in Philadelphia on Tuesday is an opportunity to lay out her priorities and show her mettle against a rival who has belittled her intelligence and subjected her to racist and sexist attacks, Reuters reported.
Trump will get a chance to try and blunt some of Harris' momentum in a race that has tightened considerably since she became the Democratic nominee in July. Most opinion polls show Harris to be slightly ahead nationally and in the majority of battleground states, but Trump remains well within striking distance to win the Nov. 5 election. Debates can be enormously consequential, and this could be their only one. President Joe Biden dropped out of the race after a faltering performance in June. In 2016, however, Hillary Clinton was considered to be the victor in all three of her debates against Trump, but he won the election.
Here's what to watch for in the pivotal televised event:
CHANGE CANDIDATES
In an election that features a former president facing the current vice president, both candidates are somewhat paradoxically portraying themselves as "change" candidates who will upset the status quo.
Harris is seeking to take credit for the achievements of the Biden administration without being weighed down by its missteps, while also suggesting her presidency would mark a fresh start for the country. Despite four years in the White House from 2017-2021, Trump has again styled himself as an insurgent pushing back against the institutions of Washington. But he also has played up his experience on the world stage as compared to Harris, pledging for instance that he could bring to an end the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza and protect the country from a nuclear-armed North Korea or Iran.
GETTING PERSONAL
Since Harris became the nominee, Trump has questioned the authenticity of her heritage and unleashed a stream of personal attacks in speeches and social media posts, defying aides and allies who have told him to focus more on her policies.
If he repeats those attacks on the debate stage, he could alienate undecided voters, particularly those who are skeptical that he has a presidential temperament. In his 2016 debates against Clinton, Trump frequently raged at her, interrupted the moderators, pointed fingers and called her names. He tried the same tactic with Biden in 2020, leading Biden to say "Will you shut up, man?" after Trump had interrupted him several times.
Harris has largely ignored Trump's personal attacks so far. Some viewers will be watching for how she handles Trump if he brings his bullying approach to the debate stage. To show the sharpest contrast with Trump, she will have to show she won’t be pulled into the pit with him.
OPPORTUNITIES
The debate is Harris' chance to establish her own political identity for millions of Americans who tune in to watch. Harris is not as well known as the Democratic presidential candidates who most recently preceded her, which could be a huge asset in an election where voters repeatedly said they were weary of a Biden-Trump rematch.
Harris, a former California attorney general, will have a platform to show her prosecutorial skills. She could try and hold Trump accountable for his conduct after the 2020 election, including allegations that he incited a mob of followers to attack the US Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in a last-ditch bid to remain in power.
Her courtroom experience may also enable her to rebut Trump's falsehoods in real time in a more effective way than Biden was able to during their June debate.
For Trump, the debate affords him his best chance yet to assert that Harris isn't ready to run the country and that he's the better choice for the job.
Trump likely will attack Harris over the Biden administration’s border-security policies, which failed to stop a record number of migrants from crossing into the US before being tightened earlier this year, as well as high consumer prices that Trump argues has made it harder for middle-class families to make ends meet.
He could continue to try to pin her to the chaotic US exit from Afghanistan in 2021, raising questions about whether a candidate whose campaign has relied on "joy" and "vibes" is prepared to become commander-in-chief.
VULNERABILITIES
Democrats have been saying for months that Trump has authoritarian tendencies and is a danger to democracy. Harris could repeat that line of attack as well as pressing him on his opposition to abortion, one of his most vulnerable political issues.
She will likely highlight his role in placing justices on the US Supreme Court who helped to do away with constitutional protection for the procedure and warn that women's reproductive rights would be further curtailed under a second Trump presidency. Harris' aides and advisers said she plans to focus on what her team calls Trump's failures on the US border wall, infrastructure and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Harris also may slam Trump for his economic policies during his administration, arguing he showered corporations with tax cuts and opposed raising the minimum wage. She could try to link him to Project 2025, a governing blueprint laid out by the conservative Heritage Foundation that critics say would abuse executive power. Trump has tried to distance himself from the plans.
And she might bring up Trump's felony conviction in his porn-star hush money case earlier this year as well as the allegations of sexual assault he has faced.
Trump, meantime, might remind viewers of the liberal policies Harris embraced during the 2020 presidential campaign and has now disowned, including doing away with private health insurance and supporting the so-called “Green New Deal” – a massive clean-energy program.
Harris will need strong answers on those fronts if she is to win over independent and undecided voters. She has been content to sketch much of her vision for the presidency in broad strokes. Trump - and the moderators - may force her to be more granular.
Progressives also will be looking to see if Harris differs from Biden on key issues such as the conflict in Gaza and if she would be willing to put greater pressure on the Israeli government to reach a ceasefire agreement.

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As Iran Threatens Israel, the Danger of Tehran's Long-Vaunted Missile Program Remains in Question

An Iranian flag flies in front of the UN office building, housing IAEA headquarters, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in Vienna, Austria, May 24, 2021. (Reuters)
An Iranian flag flies in front of the UN office building, housing IAEA headquarters, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in Vienna, Austria, May 24, 2021. (Reuters)
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As Iran Threatens Israel, the Danger of Tehran's Long-Vaunted Missile Program Remains in Question

An Iranian flag flies in front of the UN office building, housing IAEA headquarters, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in Vienna, Austria, May 24, 2021. (Reuters)
An Iranian flag flies in front of the UN office building, housing IAEA headquarters, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in Vienna, Austria, May 24, 2021. (Reuters)

As Iran threatens to attack Israel over the assassination of a Hamas leader in the Iranian capital, its long-vaunted missile program offers one of the few ways for Tehran to strike back directly, but questions loom over just how much of a danger it poses.
The program was behind Iran's unprecedented drone-and-missile assault on Israel in April, when Iran became the first nation to launch such a barrage since Iraqi Saddam Hussein lobbed Scud missiles at Israel in the 1991 Gulf War.
But few of the Iranian projectiles reached their targets. Many were shot down by a US-led coalition, while others apparently failed at launch or crashed while in flight. Even those that reached Israel appeared to miss their marks.
Now a new report by experts shared exclusively with The Associated Press suggests one of Tehran's most advanced missiles is far less accurate than previously thought.
The April assault showed "some ability to strike Israel,” said Sam Lair, a research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies who worked on the analysis. But "if I were supreme leader, I would probably be a little disappointed.”
If Iranian missiles are not able to hit targets precisely “that recasts their role,” Lair added. “They’re no longer as valuable for conducting conventional military operations. They may be more valuable simply as terror weapons.”
As an example, he recalled the harassing missile fire seen on cities in the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, when Iran could fire a variety of missiles at a large city and hope some got through.
Iran has repeatedly said it will retaliate for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh. Israel is widely suspected of carrying out the assassination, though it has not claimed it.
The Iranian mission to the United Nations did not respond to a request for comment. But Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei tacitly acknowledged the country's failure to strike anything of importance in Israel.
“Debates by the other party about how many missiles were fired, how many of them hit the target and how many didn’t, these are of secondary importance,” Khamenei said. “The main issue is the emergence of the Iranian nation” and the Iranian military "in an important international arena. This is what matters.”
A fusillade of missiles and drones Retaliation had been expected for days after a suspected Israeli strike on April 1 hit an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, Syria, killing two Iranian generals and five officers, as well as a member of the Lebanese militia Hezbollah.
Footage aired on state television showed that Iran's April 13 assault began with Revolutionary Guard commander Gen. Hossein Salami speaking by telephone with Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the Guard’s aerospace division.
“Start the ‘True Promise’ operation against Zionist regime’s bases,” he ordered.
As the missiles headed skyward, people across Iran stopped what they were doing and pointed their mobile phones at the launch noise from their cars and the balconies of their homes. Videos analyzed by the AP showed multiple launch sites, including on the outskirts of Arak, Hamadan, Isfahan, Kermanshah, Shiraz, Tabriz and Tehran.
Grainy footage later released through pro-Iranian military social media accounts showed missiles thundering off truck-based mobile launchers. Iran’s bomb-carrying Shahed drones, widely used by Russia in its war on Ukraine, leaped off metal stands, their engines whirring like lawnmowers through the night sky. Some were launched by pickup trucks racing down runways.
The triangle-shaped drones went first, taking hours to reach their targets. Then came the Paveh cruise missiles, taking a shorter time, and finally the Emad, Ghadr and Kheibar Shekan ballistic missiles, which needed only minutes, according to an analysis by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control. Drones and missiles also came from Yemen, likely fired by the Iranian-backed Houthi group.
Israeli officials estimated that Iran launched 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles. In Jordan, an AP journalist filmed what appeared to be a ballistic missile being intercepted above the Earth’s atmosphere, likely by an Israeli Arrow 3 missile, with the blast radiating out like a circle.
The US, the United Kingdom, France and Jordan all shot down incoming fire. The Americans claimed to have downed 80 bomb-carrying drones and at least six ballistic missiles. Israeli missile defenses were also activated, though their initial claim of intercepting 99% of the projectiles appeared to be an exaggeration.
The attack “was very clearly not something symbolic and not something trying to avoid damage,” said Fabian Hinz, a missile expert and research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who studies Iran. It was “a major attempt to overcome Israeli defenses.”
US officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters, told the AP they assessed that 50% of the Iranian missiles failed at launch or crashed before reaching their target.
Strike on air base suggests poor accuracy In the aftermath, analysts at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies examined the strike on the Nevatim Air Base some 65 kilometers (40 miles) south of Jerusalem in the Negev Desert. The center's experts long have studied Iran and its ballistic missile program.
The base came into immediate focus after the suspected Israeli strike on the Iranian diplomatic mission in Syria. Iran's ambassador to Syria, Hossein Akbari, claimed that the strike was conducted by Israeli F-35Is, which are based at Nevatim.
The air base also figured into Iranian military propaganda. Iranian state television aired footage in February of a Revolutionary Guard test that targeted a mock-up resembling F-35I hangars at Nevatim. Ballistic missiles, including some of the kinds used in the April attack on Israel, destroyed the mock-up.
In the attack, at least four Iranian missiles struck Nevatim, as seen in satellite images and footage released by the Israeli military.
The only debris found in the area — collected from the Dead Sea — suggests Iran used Emad missiles to target Nevatim, the analysts said. The liquid-fueled Emad, or “pillar” in Farsi, is a variant of Iran's Shahab-3 missile built from a North Korean design with a reported range of 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles). That indicates the Emads were likely fired from the Shiraz area, which is within the estimated limits of the missile's likely capabilities, the analysts said.
Based on Iran's focus on the F-35I, the James Martin analysts assumed the likely target point for the Iranian fire would be a cluster of aircraft hangars. The position also serves as a near-central point within the Nevatim base itself.
That offers “a much more valuable target" than just "poking holes in the runway,” Lair said. But none of the Iranian missiles directly hit those hangars.
Assuming Iran targeted the hangars, the James Martin analysts measured the distance between the hangars and the impact zones of the missiles. That gave an average of about 1.2 kilometers (0.75 miles) for the “circular error probable” — a measurement used by experts to determine a weapon's accuracy based on the radius of a circle that encompasses 50% of where the missiles landed.
That's far worse than a 500-meter (1,640-foot) error circle first estimated by experts for the Emad. After a UN weapons ban on Iran ended in 2020, Iran separately advertised the Emad to potential international buyers as having a 50-meter (164-foot) circle — a figure that is in line with top missile specifications for systems deployed elsewhere, said Hinz, the IISS missile expert.
The results from April's attack were nowhere near that precise.
"This means the Emad is much less accurate than previous estimates indicated," Lair said. “This indicates the Iranians are a generation behind where previous assessments thought they were in accuracy."
The poor performance may be attributable to electronic warfare measures designed to confuse the missile’s guidance system, as well as potential sabotage, poor missile design and the distances involved in the attack.
What's next in the past, Iranian threats to retaliate against Israel generally took the form of either attacks by Iranian-backed forces in the Mideast or assaults aimed at Israeli targets elsewhere, such as embassies or tourists aboard.
Geography limits the options for a direct Iranian military attack. Iran shares no border with Israel, and the two countries are some 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) apart at the shortest distance.
Iran’s air force has an aging fleet led by F-14 Tomcats and Mikoyan MiG-29 fighter jets from the Cold War, but they would be no match for Israel's F-35Is and its air defenses. That means Iran again would need to rely on missiles and long-range drones.
It could also enlist help from allied militias such as Lebanon's Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis to overwhelm Israel's defenses. Israel and Hezbollah exchanged heavy fire on Aug. 25.
Always present in the background is the risk that Tehran could develop a nuclear weapon, a threat that Iranian officials have repeated in recent months. While Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful, Western intelligence agencies and the International Atomic Energy Agency say Tehran had an organized military nuclear program until 2003.
US intelligence agencies said in a report in July that Iran has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.” However, building a weapon and miniaturizing it to put on a ballistic missile could take years.
“Iran has the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the region and continues to emphasize improving the accuracy, lethality and reliability of these systems,” the report from the director of national intelligence said. “Iran probably is incorporating lessons learned" from the April attack.