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What Impact Will Egyptian-Turkish Rapprochement Have on Resolving Regional Crises?

Sisi and Erdogan stressed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. (Egyptian Presidency)
Sisi and Erdogan stressed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. (Egyptian Presidency)
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What Impact Will Egyptian-Turkish Rapprochement Have on Resolving Regional Crises?

Sisi and Erdogan stressed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. (Egyptian Presidency)
Sisi and Erdogan stressed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. (Egyptian Presidency)

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s visit to Türkiye and his meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan raised questions about the potential impact of Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement on resolving regional crises, especially after discussions by the joint Strategic Cooperation Council focused on the situation in six Arab nations.

Experts suggest that the alignment between Cairo and Ankara on certain regional crises could lead to a significant shift toward resolving these issues. They emphasized that the Egyptian-Turkish approach could break through in several regional files.

Sisi visited Ankara on Wednesday, following an invitation from Erdogan during his trip to Cairo in February. The Egyptian president described the visit as reflecting a shared will to start a new phase of friendship and cooperation between his country and Türkiye given their pivotal roles in their regional and international surroundings.

The discussions between Sisi and Erdogan highlighted a convergence in views on regional issues, especially the situation in Gaza and Israel’s violations of Palestinian rights.

Additionally, the Strategic Cooperation Council meeting, chaired by the two presidents, addressed cooperation between their countries on six files and Arab issues, including the situation in Gaza, the war in Sudan, tensions in Somalia, and the conditions in Libya, Syria, and Iraq, according to a joint statement issued after the meeting.

Taha Ouda, a researcher in international relations in Ankara, pointed to the significance of the shared positions between Egypt and Türkiye on Gaza, Sudan, and Libya. He predicted that the coming period would witness major shifts in the foreign policies of both countries over regional crises. He also noted that the exchange of visits between Sisi and Erdogan signifies a new era of political and economic cooperation between their countries.

Dr. Tarek Fahmy, a professor of political science at Cairo University, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Egyptian-Turkish approach will likely lead to breakthroughs in several regional files.

He explained that both countries are driven to achieve mutual interests and coordinate efforts to serve their respective priorities. He viewed the normalization of relations between Cairo and Ankara as a crucial step in light of regional developments.

Egyptian and Turkish officials are seen at the Strategic Cooperation Council meeting. (Egyptian Presidency)

During a joint press conference with Erdogan, Sisi emphasized the unified stance of Egypt and Türkiye in calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and rejecting Israel’s current escalation in the West Bank.

They also called for a pathway that fulfills the aspirations of the Palestinian people to establish their independent state according to the June 4, 1967, borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital, in line with relevant international resolutions.

Fahmy further pointed out that elevating relations between Cairo and Ankara to a revived strategic dialogue will lead to a qualitative shift in addressing regional crises, including cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean, and the situation in Libya and the Horn of Africa.

He emphasized the coordination mechanism between the two countries, with Egypt playing a mediating role in the Syrian conflict, where Türkiye is involved, in exchange for Türkiye’s mediation in the Nile Basin issue and efforts to resolve tensions in the Red Sea.

The two presidents agreed on consultations to achieve security and political stability in Libya, stressing the importance of ending the prolonged crisis by holding simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections, removing illegal foreign forces and mercenaries, and dismantling armed militias, allowing Libya to overcome its divisions and restore security and stability, said the Strategic Cooperation Council declaration.

The talks also addressed the crisis in Sudan and Egypt’s efforts, in cooperation with various parties, to secure a ceasefire and promote a political solution. Regarding the Horn of Africa, Sisi and Erdogan agreed on the need to preserve Somalia’s unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity against challenges.

Former Assistant Egyptian Foreign Minister Ambassador Gamal Bayoumi noted that economic and investment cooperation takes priority over coordination on regional issues. He stressed that energy and gas cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean would be among the first areas of collaboration between Egypt and Türkiye.

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Türkiye and Russia Engage in Delicate Maneuvers over Syria after Assad’s Downfall

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan shake hands as they pose for photos during a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on July 3, 2024. (Sergey Guneyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan shake hands as they pose for photos during a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on July 3, 2024. (Sergey Guneyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)
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Türkiye and Russia Engage in Delicate Maneuvers over Syria after Assad’s Downfall

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan shake hands as they pose for photos during a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on July 3, 2024. (Sergey Guneyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan shake hands as they pose for photos during a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on July 3, 2024. (Sergey Guneyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

The rapid downfall of Syrian leader Bashar Assad has touched off a new round of delicate geopolitical maneuvering between Russia's Vladimir Putin and Türkiye’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
With the dust still settling from the stunning events in Damascus, the outcome for now seems to be favoring Ankara, which backed the victorious opposition factions, while Moscow suffered a bruising blow to its international clout.
“In the game of Czars vs. Sultans, this is Sultans 1 and Czars 0,” said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute. “Far from being allies, Türkiye and Russia are competitors. And in this case, Türkiye has outsmarted Russia.”
The Assad regime’s demise opens another chapter in the complex relationship between Putin and Erdogan, with wide-ranging implications not just for Syria but also for Ukraine and the two leaders' ties with Washington.
Russia and Türkiye share economic and security interests — along with an intense rivalry. The personal relationship between Putin and Erdogan often sees them both praising each other, even as they jockey for political and economic gains.
“There are currently only two leaders left in the world -- there is me and there is Vladimir Putin,” Erdogan said recently, reflecting the respect for the Kremlin leader. Putin, in turn, has often praises Erdogan’s political prowess.
Conflicts and deals Russia and Türkiye backed opposing sides in Syria’s civil war that started in 2011, putting them on a collision course. Tensions spiraled when a Turkish fighter jet shot down a Russian warplane near the Türkiye-Syria border in November 2015, soon after Moscow launched its air campaign to support Assad.
The Kremlin responded with sweeping economic sanctions that halted Turkish imports, drove Turkish companies from the lucrative Russian market and cut the flow of Russian tourists to Türkiye’s resorts.
Faced with massive economic damage, Erdogan apologized months later. Soon after, Putin staunchly supported him when he faced an attempted military coup in July 2016, helping to warm ties quickly.
In 2018, Moscow and Ankara negotiated a ceasefire and de-escalation deal for the opposition-held Idlib province in northwestern Syria on the border with Türkiye and sought to anchor the often-violated agreement with follow-up deals in the next few years.
But even as they cooperated on Syria, Moscow and Ankara also vied for influence in Libya, where Russia supported forces loyal to military commander Khalifa Hifter while Türkiye backed his Tripoli-based foes. Türkiye also aggressively sought to increase its leverage in the former Soviet Central Asian nations competing with Russia and China.
In 2020, Moscow backed off when Türkiye’s ally Azerbaijan routed ethnic Armenian forces in the fighting over the breakaway region of Karabakh. Even though Armenia hosted a Russian military base, the Kremlin has engaged in a delicate balancing act, seeking to maintain warm ties with both Azerbaijan and Türkiye.
While their political interests often clashed, economic ties boomed, with Russia boosting natural gas exports to Türkiye via a Black Sea pipeline; by building Türkiye’s first nuclear plant; and by providing the NATO member with advanced air defense systems — to Washington’s dismay.
Relations amid the war in Ukraine
Ties with Türkiye grew even more important for Putin after he invaded Ukraine in 2022, Europe’s largest conflict since World War II.
The West responded with economic sanctions that barred Russia from most Western markets, restricted its access to international financial system, shut transport routes and halted exports of key technologies. Türkiye, which didn’t join the sanctions, has emerged as Russia’s key gateway to global markets, strengthening Erdogan’s hand in negotiations with Putin.
While Türkiye backed Ukraine’s territorial integrity and supplied Kyiv with weapons, Erdogan echoed Putin in accusing the US and NATO of fomenting the conflict. Putin has praised Erdogan for offering to mediate a settlement.
In March 2022, Türkiye hosted Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul that soon collapsed, with both Putin and Erdogan blaming the West for their failure.
Later that year, Ankara pooled efforts with the United Nations to broker a deal that opened the door for Ukrainian grain exports from its Black Sea ports, an agreement that helped drive down global food prices before falling apart the following year.
Türkiye’s balancing act in Ukraine is driven by its dependence on the vast Russian market, supplies of natural gas and a flow of tourists.
Russia’s focus on Ukraine has eroded its clout in regions where Türkiye and other players have tried to take advantage of Moscow's withering influence.
In September 2023, Azerbaijan reclaimed control over all of Karabakh in an one-day blitz while Russian regional peacekeepers stood back. That hurt Russia’s ties with Armenia, which has shifted increasingly toward the West.
Moscow's new look at Syria
Focused on Ukraine, Russia had few resources left for Syria at a time when Hezbollah similarly pulled back its fighters amid the war with Israel and Iranian support for Assad also weakened.
Russia tried to sponsor talks on normalizing relations between Türkiye and Syria, but Assad stonewalled them, refusing any compromise.
Assad’s intransigence helped trigger the Türkiye-backed opposition’s offensive in November. The underfunded and demoralized Syrian army quickly crumbled, allowing the opposition to sweep across the country and capture Damascus.
Even as it has offered asylum to Assad and his family, Russia has reached out to Syria's new leaders, seeking to ensure security for its troops still there and extend leases on its naval and air bases.
At his annual news conference Thursday, Putin said Russia offered Syria's new leaders to use the bases for humanitarian aid deliveries and suggested Moscow could offer other incentives.
While Assad's demise dealt a heavy blow to Russia, some believe Moscow could navigate the rapidly changing environment to retain at least some clout.
“Syria’s opposition forces well understand that the country’s future is uncertain,” said Nikolay Kozhanov, a consulting fellow with Chathan House’s Russia and Eurasia program, in a commentary. “They want Russia, if not as a friend, then a neutral party.”
He noted that “Moscow’s main goal will be to maintain at least a minimal level of influence through a military presence, for example, at its existing bases, or through contacts with other regional players, such as Türkiye.”
Cagaptay observed that while Türkiye would like to see an end to Russia’s military presence in Syria, Ankara’s position will depend on how relations evolve with Washington.
“If we see a reset in US-Turkish ties where Türkiye thinks it can comfortably lean on the U.S. against Russia, I can see Erdogan adopting a kind of more boisterous tone vis a vis Putin,” he said.
But if the US maintains its alliance with the Kurds and stands against Türkiye’s effort to push back on Kurdish fighters in northeastern Syria, “Ankara may decide that it needs to continue to play all sides as it has been doing for about a decade now,” Cagaptay said.
Putin noted Russia understands Türkiye’s motives in securing its borders, but he also warned that the Kurds could offer strong resistance if attacked.
Emre Ersen, a Russia expert at Istanbul’s Marmara University, also noted that while Assad’s fall will diminish Moscow’s influence, “the relationship between Türkiye and Russia will not be devastated by the events in Syria.”
“Obviously, they still need to reach out to each other regarding the crisis in Ukraine, but also because they have very significant economic relations,” Ersen said, adding that Erdogan could be expected to seek more concessions from Russia on energy and trade issues.