What Impact Will Egyptian-Turkish Rapprochement Have on Resolving Regional Crises?

Sisi and Erdogan stressed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. (Egyptian Presidency)
Sisi and Erdogan stressed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. (Egyptian Presidency)
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What Impact Will Egyptian-Turkish Rapprochement Have on Resolving Regional Crises?

Sisi and Erdogan stressed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. (Egyptian Presidency)
Sisi and Erdogan stressed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. (Egyptian Presidency)

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s visit to Türkiye and his meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan raised questions about the potential impact of Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement on resolving regional crises, especially after discussions by the joint Strategic Cooperation Council focused on the situation in six Arab nations.

Experts suggest that the alignment between Cairo and Ankara on certain regional crises could lead to a significant shift toward resolving these issues. They emphasized that the Egyptian-Turkish approach could break through in several regional files.

Sisi visited Ankara on Wednesday, following an invitation from Erdogan during his trip to Cairo in February. The Egyptian president described the visit as reflecting a shared will to start a new phase of friendship and cooperation between his country and Türkiye given their pivotal roles in their regional and international surroundings.

The discussions between Sisi and Erdogan highlighted a convergence in views on regional issues, especially the situation in Gaza and Israel’s violations of Palestinian rights.

Additionally, the Strategic Cooperation Council meeting, chaired by the two presidents, addressed cooperation between their countries on six files and Arab issues, including the situation in Gaza, the war in Sudan, tensions in Somalia, and the conditions in Libya, Syria, and Iraq, according to a joint statement issued after the meeting.

Taha Ouda, a researcher in international relations in Ankara, pointed to the significance of the shared positions between Egypt and Türkiye on Gaza, Sudan, and Libya. He predicted that the coming period would witness major shifts in the foreign policies of both countries over regional crises. He also noted that the exchange of visits between Sisi and Erdogan signifies a new era of political and economic cooperation between their countries.

Dr. Tarek Fahmy, a professor of political science at Cairo University, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Egyptian-Turkish approach will likely lead to breakthroughs in several regional files.

He explained that both countries are driven to achieve mutual interests and coordinate efforts to serve their respective priorities. He viewed the normalization of relations between Cairo and Ankara as a crucial step in light of regional developments.

Egyptian and Turkish officials are seen at the Strategic Cooperation Council meeting. (Egyptian Presidency)

During a joint press conference with Erdogan, Sisi emphasized the unified stance of Egypt and Türkiye in calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and rejecting Israel’s current escalation in the West Bank.

They also called for a pathway that fulfills the aspirations of the Palestinian people to establish their independent state according to the June 4, 1967, borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital, in line with relevant international resolutions.

Fahmy further pointed out that elevating relations between Cairo and Ankara to a revived strategic dialogue will lead to a qualitative shift in addressing regional crises, including cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean, and the situation in Libya and the Horn of Africa.

He emphasized the coordination mechanism between the two countries, with Egypt playing a mediating role in the Syrian conflict, where Türkiye is involved, in exchange for Türkiye’s mediation in the Nile Basin issue and efforts to resolve tensions in the Red Sea.

The two presidents agreed on consultations to achieve security and political stability in Libya, stressing the importance of ending the prolonged crisis by holding simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections, removing illegal foreign forces and mercenaries, and dismantling armed militias, allowing Libya to overcome its divisions and restore security and stability, said the Strategic Cooperation Council declaration.

The talks also addressed the crisis in Sudan and Egypt’s efforts, in cooperation with various parties, to secure a ceasefire and promote a political solution. Regarding the Horn of Africa, Sisi and Erdogan agreed on the need to preserve Somalia’s unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity against challenges.

Former Assistant Egyptian Foreign Minister Ambassador Gamal Bayoumi noted that economic and investment cooperation takes priority over coordination on regional issues. He stressed that energy and gas cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean would be among the first areas of collaboration between Egypt and Türkiye.



Three Scenarios for Russia’s Military Presence in Syria

Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
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Three Scenarios for Russia’s Military Presence in Syria

Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday he would meet former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Russia after his regime fell in Damascus. But what will Putin say to his former ally? And how might their first exchange unfold, given Russia’s role in helping Assad escape on a chaotic night?

The Kremlin, known for staging Putin’s meetings with precision, might opt to limit media coverage this time. Putin could be seen sitting at a small table with Assad, now on asylum

in Moscow, in a soundless scene—one that leaves little room for formal pleasantries.

Why has Putin announced plans to meet Assad? Is it to reprimand him? Many in Russia believe Assad’s stubbornness has hurt Moscow’s efforts, threatened its gains in Syria, and could eventually risk its key military presence there.

As details remain unclear, Russian experts are racing to analyze developments in Syria and outline scenarios for the next phase.

Some Russian experts have painted grim scenarios. A member of the prestigious Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy warned of potential risks, including a prolonged conflict with civil war elements, a humanitarian catastrophe with millions of refugees, escalating migration in Europe, and rising tensions among nations like Israel, the US, and Iran.

He also predicted a new wave of international terrorism that could reach far beyond the region.

Other experts echoed this pessimism. One posted an image of a Syrian dissident stepping on a statue of Assad’s father, warning that “this is just the beginning.” Another blamed the crisis on the “Obama curse,” citing the West’s interference, while a third shared a bleak analysis titled, “We Must Pray for Syria.”

So far, Russian media and think tanks have avoided any optimistic outlooks for Syria’s future.

Experts, who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat, believe Moscow may be preparing to handle one of three possible scenarios in Syria.

The first, most favorable for Russia’s interests, involves Moscow reaching an agreement with the new Syrian authorities to maintain its military presence for a limited period.

This could mean replacing the current 49-year agreements with a five-year deal to facilitate a gradual Russian withdrawal. Such an arrangement could help the new leadership in Syria manage Western pressure to cut ties with Moscow.

The second scenario envisions Russia giving up its airbase in Hmeimim while retaining a significant presence in Tartus. This would mirror agreements from 1972, which allowed Russian naval vessels to use the Tartus logistics center in the Mediterranean. This compromise would preserve Russia’s interests while reducing Western pressure on Damascus.

The third scenario involves a full Russian withdrawal from both bases, with Moscow later seeking agreements for shared use of air and sea ports. Such agreements, similar to those Russia has signed with other countries, are less likely to provoke Western opposition.

Regardless of the outcome, the Kremlin has yet to develop a clear strategy for dealing with the emerging situation in Syria.

Key questions remain, including how to curb Iran’s regional influence, manage Türkiye and Israel’s growing roles in Syria, and establish a new regional balance that secures Moscow’s minimum interests.