Israeli threats against Lebanon have intensified along with renewed military tensions with Hezbollah. This escalation comes amid failed ceasefire negotiations for Gaza, which Hezbollah links to restoring calm on the southern front—a condition reportedly not accepted by Tel Aviv, according to multiple Israeli officials.
Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib has conveyed through intermediaries that Tel Aviv is not interested in a ceasefire in Lebanon, even if a truce in Gaza is achieved. This message was communicated by US envoy Amos Hochstein a few months ago, raising concerns about whether a military solution will prevail over a political one.
While some analysts believe that a de-escalation in Gaza might lead to heightened tensions in the South, given Israeli officials’ readiness for a northern conflict following the Gaza conflict, others argue that escalation is unlikely and that both fronts will face a similar fate.
Retired Brigadier General Dr. Khalil Helou and Professor of Political Science and International Relations Dr. Imad Salameh agree that the current situation is unlikely to change, predicting that the status quo will persist with “no ceasefire and no expansion of the war.”
In contrast, Riad Kahwaji, Head of the Middle East and Gulf Military Analysis Center – Enigma, sees an increased likelihood of war expansion in Lebanon due to the failed Gaza ceasefire negotiations.
In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Kahwaji said: “With the failure of negotiations in Gaza, attention is now shifting to the southern front of Lebanon, which remains in the eye of the storm and within the danger zone.”
For his part, Helou stated: “For 11 months, Tel Aviv has been threatening escalation and will continue to do so. However, the likelihood of war has decreased compared to previous months due to internal and external political factors related to Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to take actions that would harm US interests, especially before the American elections.”
Helou noted that Israel continues to systematically destroy areas in the South, over five kilometers from the border, to prevent attacks on northern regions. Despite this, ongoing shelling and rockets from Hezbollah targeting northern towns suggest that the situation will remain unchanged.
Salameh agreed, describing the current situation as a media and psychological war with fluctuating intensity.
He told Asharq Al-Awsat: “Tel Aviv’s renewed threats are part of this ongoing conflict and do not indicate an imminent large-scale invasion of Lebanon or a major conflict with uncertain regional and domestic consequences.”
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has recently announced shifting military focus northward in preparation for a comprehensive ground operation.
On Tuesday, during a tour of the border area with Lebanon, he stated: “We are shifting the focus of military operations northward in preparation for completing tasks in the South.”
He urged military personnel to “prepare for a comprehensive ground operation at all levels to change the security situation and return residents to their homes.”
Gallant’s statement followed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s instruction for the army to prepare for “changing the situation in the North.”
In contrast, Hezbollah continues to link the southern front with the developments in Gaza.
“The enemy will not be able to return settlers to their homes except through one way: stopping the aggression on Gaza,” Deputy Chairman of Hezbollah’s Executive Council Sheikh Ali Damoush said.
He added: “The resistance will not accept changes to the rules of engagement or breaking existing equations. The more the enemy persists in its aggression and expands its attacks, the more the resistance will respond and escalate its operations... Escalation will be met with escalation, and we are not afraid of threats or intimidation."
