Egypt Deepens Presence in Horn of Africa amid Tensions with Ethiopia

Egypt and Eritrea focused on strengthening bilateral relations across various fields and assessing political and security developments in the region. (Egypt Foreign Ministry’s Facebook page)
Egypt and Eritrea focused on strengthening bilateral relations across various fields and assessing political and security developments in the region. (Egypt Foreign Ministry’s Facebook page)
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Egypt Deepens Presence in Horn of Africa amid Tensions with Ethiopia

Egypt and Eritrea focused on strengthening bilateral relations across various fields and assessing political and security developments in the region. (Egypt Foreign Ministry’s Facebook page)
Egypt and Eritrea focused on strengthening bilateral relations across various fields and assessing political and security developments in the region. (Egypt Foreign Ministry’s Facebook page)

Egypt’s General Intelligence Chief Major General Abbas Kamel and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Migration Dr. Badr Abdelatty visited the Eritrean capital, Asmara, on Saturday as part of Cairo’s efforts to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa and address regional crises amid growing tensions with Ethiopia.

Experts speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat described the move as a “strategic step with significant political and security implications.”

During their visit, the Egyptian officials met with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and conveyed a message from President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi that focused on strengthening bilateral relations across various fields and assessing political and security developments in the region, according to an official statement from Egypt’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Egypt and Eritrea agreed on the “need to intensify efforts and continue consultations to achieve stability in Sudan, support national state institutions, and preserve Somalia’s unity and sovereignty,” the ministry said.

Afwerki, for his part, shared his perspective on developments in the Red Sea, stressing the importance of restoring normal maritime navigation and facilitating international trade through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

He also addressed regional challenges and security concerns in the Horn of Africa, calling for boosting cooperation to promote stability.

The visit comes amid escalating tensions between Egypt and Somalia on one side, and Ethiopia on the other. Earlier this year, Ethiopia signed an agreement with Somaliland, a self-declared independent region, allowing it to use Somaliland’s Red Sea coastline for commercial and military purposes. The deal, strongly opposed by Somalia, has added to the tensions. In response, Cairo signed a joint defense agreement with Mogadishu.

Tensions rose further in late August when Somalia announced the arrival of Egyptian military equipment and delegations in Mogadishu as part of Egypt’s participation in peacekeeping operations. Ethiopia, opposed the move, warning that it “would not stand by idly.”

Ambassador Salah Halima, Deputy Chairman of the Egyptian Council for African Affairs, emphasized the security and political significance of the visit to Eritrea, noting that it aimed to strengthen Egypt’s presence in the Horn of Africa and coordinate efforts with Asmara to achieve security and stability in the region.

He highlighted the importance of addressing the ongoing Red Sea navigation crisis, the situation in Sudan, and the growing tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia.

According to Halima, the security and political coordination between Cairo and Asmara is primarily aimed at countering Ethiopia’s recent actions, which are seen as a threat to the stability of the Horn of Africa. He specifically underlined Ethiopia’s agreement with Somaliland, which has been rejected by Egypt and the broader Arab world.

Dr. Amani El-Tawil, Director of the African Program at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, agreed, stating that Egypt’s outreach to Eritrea is a natural response to Ethiopia’s policies, which undermine Somalia’s sovereignty and pose a broader security threat to the Horn of Africa.

She emphasized that the visit is crucial for strengthening Egypt’s presence in the region and coordinating responses to Ethiopia’s confrontational approach.

El-Tawil also underscored the strategic importance of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for Egypt’s national security, noting its significant impact on the country’s economy and maritime traffic in the Red Sea.

Tensions in the Red Sea have also escalated in recent months, particularly after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militias targeted ships passing through the maritime corridor in response to Israel’s military operations in Gaza. These attacks prompted global shipping companies to reroute their vessels away from the Red Sea, affecting global trade and leading to a decline in Egypt’s Suez Canal revenues.

In August, Sisi met with Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh to discuss regional security, with a focus on the challenges facing the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea. Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to ongoing cooperation and consultations at all levels to support peace and stability in the region, according to an official statement from the Egyptian presidency.



South Lebanon Front: Military or Political Solution?

The funeral of Qassem Bazzi, Mohammed Hashem and Abbas Hammoud, the three paramedics who were killed last Saturday in an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon (Reuters)
The funeral of Qassem Bazzi, Mohammed Hashem and Abbas Hammoud, the three paramedics who were killed last Saturday in an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon (Reuters)
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South Lebanon Front: Military or Political Solution?

The funeral of Qassem Bazzi, Mohammed Hashem and Abbas Hammoud, the three paramedics who were killed last Saturday in an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon (Reuters)
The funeral of Qassem Bazzi, Mohammed Hashem and Abbas Hammoud, the three paramedics who were killed last Saturday in an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon (Reuters)

Israeli threats against Lebanon have intensified along with renewed military tensions with Hezbollah. This escalation comes amid failed ceasefire negotiations for Gaza, which Hezbollah links to restoring calm on the southern front—a condition reportedly not accepted by Tel Aviv, according to multiple Israeli officials.

Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib has conveyed through intermediaries that Tel Aviv is not interested in a ceasefire in Lebanon, even if a truce in Gaza is achieved. This message was communicated by US envoy Amos Hochstein a few months ago, raising concerns about whether a military solution will prevail over a political one.

While some analysts believe that a de-escalation in Gaza might lead to heightened tensions in the South, given Israeli officials’ readiness for a northern conflict following the Gaza conflict, others argue that escalation is unlikely and that both fronts will face a similar fate.

Retired Brigadier General Dr. Khalil Helou and Professor of Political Science and International Relations Dr. Imad Salameh agree that the current situation is unlikely to change, predicting that the status quo will persist with “no ceasefire and no expansion of the war.”

In contrast, Riad Kahwaji, Head of the Middle East and Gulf Military Analysis Center – Enigma, sees an increased likelihood of war expansion in Lebanon due to the failed Gaza ceasefire negotiations.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Kahwaji said: “With the failure of negotiations in Gaza, attention is now shifting to the southern front of Lebanon, which remains in the eye of the storm and within the danger zone.”

For his part, Helou stated: “For 11 months, Tel Aviv has been threatening escalation and will continue to do so. However, the likelihood of war has decreased compared to previous months due to internal and external political factors related to Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to take actions that would harm US interests, especially before the American elections.”

Helou noted that Israel continues to systematically destroy areas in the South, over five kilometers from the border, to prevent attacks on northern regions. Despite this, ongoing shelling and rockets from Hezbollah targeting northern towns suggest that the situation will remain unchanged.

Salameh agreed, describing the current situation as a media and psychological war with fluctuating intensity.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat: “Tel Aviv’s renewed threats are part of this ongoing conflict and do not indicate an imminent large-scale invasion of Lebanon or a major conflict with uncertain regional and domestic consequences.”

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has recently announced shifting military focus northward in preparation for a comprehensive ground operation.

On Tuesday, during a tour of the border area with Lebanon, he stated: “We are shifting the focus of military operations northward in preparation for completing tasks in the South.”

He urged military personnel to “prepare for a comprehensive ground operation at all levels to change the security situation and return residents to their homes.”

Gallant’s statement followed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s instruction for the army to prepare for “changing the situation in the North.”

In contrast, Hezbollah continues to link the southern front with the developments in Gaza.

“The enemy will not be able to return settlers to their homes except through one way: stopping the aggression on Gaza,” Deputy Chairman of Hezbollah’s Executive Council Sheikh Ali Damoush said.

He added: “The resistance will not accept changes to the rules of engagement or breaking existing equations. The more the enemy persists in its aggression and expands its attacks, the more the resistance will respond and escalate its operations... Escalation will be met with escalation, and we are not afraid of threats or intimidation."