Egypt Deepens Presence in Horn of Africa amid Tensions with Ethiopia

Egypt and Eritrea focused on strengthening bilateral relations across various fields and assessing political and security developments in the region. (Egypt Foreign Ministry’s Facebook page)
Egypt and Eritrea focused on strengthening bilateral relations across various fields and assessing political and security developments in the region. (Egypt Foreign Ministry’s Facebook page)
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Egypt Deepens Presence in Horn of Africa amid Tensions with Ethiopia

Egypt and Eritrea focused on strengthening bilateral relations across various fields and assessing political and security developments in the region. (Egypt Foreign Ministry’s Facebook page)
Egypt and Eritrea focused on strengthening bilateral relations across various fields and assessing political and security developments in the region. (Egypt Foreign Ministry’s Facebook page)

Egypt’s General Intelligence Chief Major General Abbas Kamel and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Migration Dr. Badr Abdelatty visited the Eritrean capital, Asmara, on Saturday as part of Cairo’s efforts to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa and address regional crises amid growing tensions with Ethiopia.

Experts speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat described the move as a “strategic step with significant political and security implications.”

During their visit, the Egyptian officials met with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and conveyed a message from President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi that focused on strengthening bilateral relations across various fields and assessing political and security developments in the region, according to an official statement from Egypt’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Egypt and Eritrea agreed on the “need to intensify efforts and continue consultations to achieve stability in Sudan, support national state institutions, and preserve Somalia’s unity and sovereignty,” the ministry said.

Afwerki, for his part, shared his perspective on developments in the Red Sea, stressing the importance of restoring normal maritime navigation and facilitating international trade through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

He also addressed regional challenges and security concerns in the Horn of Africa, calling for boosting cooperation to promote stability.

The visit comes amid escalating tensions between Egypt and Somalia on one side, and Ethiopia on the other. Earlier this year, Ethiopia signed an agreement with Somaliland, a self-declared independent region, allowing it to use Somaliland’s Red Sea coastline for commercial and military purposes. The deal, strongly opposed by Somalia, has added to the tensions. In response, Cairo signed a joint defense agreement with Mogadishu.

Tensions rose further in late August when Somalia announced the arrival of Egyptian military equipment and delegations in Mogadishu as part of Egypt’s participation in peacekeeping operations. Ethiopia, opposed the move, warning that it “would not stand by idly.”

Ambassador Salah Halima, Deputy Chairman of the Egyptian Council for African Affairs, emphasized the security and political significance of the visit to Eritrea, noting that it aimed to strengthen Egypt’s presence in the Horn of Africa and coordinate efforts with Asmara to achieve security and stability in the region.

He highlighted the importance of addressing the ongoing Red Sea navigation crisis, the situation in Sudan, and the growing tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia.

According to Halima, the security and political coordination between Cairo and Asmara is primarily aimed at countering Ethiopia’s recent actions, which are seen as a threat to the stability of the Horn of Africa. He specifically underlined Ethiopia’s agreement with Somaliland, which has been rejected by Egypt and the broader Arab world.

Dr. Amani El-Tawil, Director of the African Program at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, agreed, stating that Egypt’s outreach to Eritrea is a natural response to Ethiopia’s policies, which undermine Somalia’s sovereignty and pose a broader security threat to the Horn of Africa.

She emphasized that the visit is crucial for strengthening Egypt’s presence in the region and coordinating responses to Ethiopia’s confrontational approach.

El-Tawil also underscored the strategic importance of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for Egypt’s national security, noting its significant impact on the country’s economy and maritime traffic in the Red Sea.

Tensions in the Red Sea have also escalated in recent months, particularly after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militias targeted ships passing through the maritime corridor in response to Israel’s military operations in Gaza. These attacks prompted global shipping companies to reroute their vessels away from the Red Sea, affecting global trade and leading to a decline in Egypt’s Suez Canal revenues.

In August, Sisi met with Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh to discuss regional security, with a focus on the challenges facing the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea. Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to ongoing cooperation and consultations at all levels to support peace and stability in the region, according to an official statement from the Egyptian presidency.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.