Is Israel Preparing for a War With Hezbollah?

Flares are fired from northern Israel over the southern Lebanese border village of Aita al-Shaab, on October 28,2023. (Photo by FADEL SENNA / AFP)
Flares are fired from northern Israel over the southern Lebanese border village of Aita al-Shaab, on October 28,2023. (Photo by FADEL SENNA / AFP)
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Is Israel Preparing for a War With Hezbollah?

Flares are fired from northern Israel over the southern Lebanese border village of Aita al-Shaab, on October 28,2023. (Photo by FADEL SENNA / AFP)
Flares are fired from northern Israel over the southern Lebanese border village of Aita al-Shaab, on October 28,2023. (Photo by FADEL SENNA / AFP)

With Israel's defense minister announcing a “new phase” of the war and an apparent Israeli attack setting off explosions in electronic devices in Lebanon, the specter of all-out combat between Israel and Hezbollah seems closer than ever before.
Hopes for a diplomatic solution to the conflict appear to be fading quickly as Israel signals a desire to change the status quo in the country's north, where it has exchanged cross-border fire with Hezbollah since the Lebanese militant group began attacking on Oct. 8, a day after the war's opening salvo by Hamas, The Associated Press said.
In recent days, Israel has moved a powerful fighting force up to the northern border, officials have escalated their rhetoric, and the country’s security Cabinet has designated the return of tens of thousands of displaced residents to their homes in northern Israel an official war goal.
Here's a look at how Israel is preparing for a war with Lebanon:
Troops drawn from Gaza to the northern border While the daily fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated on several occasions, the bitter enemies have been careful to avoid an all-out war.
That appears to be changing — especially after pagers, walkie-talkies and other devices exploded in Lebanon on Tuesday and Wednesday, killing at least 20 and wounding thousands in a sophisticated attack Hezbollah blamed on Israel.
“You don’t do something like that, hit thousands of people, and think war is not coming,” said retired Israeli Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, who leads Israel Defense and Security Forum, a group of hawkish former military commanders. “Why didn't we do it for 11 months? Because we were not willing to go to war yet. What’s happening now? Israel is ready for war."
As fighting in Gaza has slowed, Israel has fortified forces along the border with Lebanon, including the arrival this week of a powerful army division that took part in some of the heaviest fighting in Gaza.
The 98th Division is believed to include thousands of troops, including paratrooper infantry units and artillery and elite commando forces specially trained for operations behind enemy lines. Their deployment was confirmed by an official with knowledge of the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss troop movements.
The division played a key role in Gaza, spearheading the army's operations in the southern city of Khan Younis, a Hamas stronghold. The offensive inflicted heavy losses on Hamas fighters and tunnels, but also wreaked massive damage, sent thousands of Palestinians fleeing and resulted in scores of civilian deaths. Israel says Hamas endangers civilians by hiding in residential areas.
The military also said it staged a series of drills this week along the border.
"The mission is clear," said Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, who heads Israel's Northern Command. “We are determined to change the security reality as soon as possible.”
A 'new phase’ of war The military movements have been accompanied by heightened rhetoric from Israel's leaders, who say their patience is running thin.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Wednesday night declared the start of a “ new phase” of the war as Israel turns its focus toward Hezbollah. "The center of gravity is shifting to the north by diverting resources and forces,” he said.
He spoke a day after Israel's Cabinet made the return of displaced residents to their homes in northern Israel a formal goal of the war. The move was largely symbolic — Israeli leaders have long pledged to bring those residents home. But elevating the significance of the aim signaled a tougher stance.
After meeting Wednesday with top security officials, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared: “We will return the residents of the north securely to their homes.”
Netanyahu delivered a similarly tough message with a top US envoy sent to the region this week to soothe tensions.
An official with knowledge of the encounter told The Associated Press that the envoy, Amos Hochstein, told Netanyahu that intensifying the conflict with Hezbollah would not help return evacuated Israelis back home.
Netanyahu, according to a statement from his office, told Hochstein that residents cannot return without “a fundamental change in the security situation in the north." The statement said that while Netanyahu “appreciates and respects” US support, Israel will “do what is necessary to safeguard its security.”
Is war inevitable? Israeli media reported Wednesday that the government has not yet decided whether to launch a major offensive in Lebanon.
Much, it seems, will depend on Hezbollah's response. The group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is expected to deliver a major speech on Thursday.
But public sentiment in Israel seems to be supportive of tougher action against Hezbollah.
A poll in late August by the Israeli Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank, found that 67% of Jewish respondents thought Israel should intensify its response to Hezbollah. That includes 46% of Jewish respondents who believed Israel should launch a deep offensive striking Lebanese infrastructure, and 21% who seek an intensified response that avoids striking Hezbollah infrastructure.
“There’s a lot of pressure from the society to go to war and win,” said Avivi, the retired general. “Unless Hezbollah tomorrow morning says, ’OK, we got the message. We’re pulling out of south Lebanon,' war is imminent.”
Such a war would almost certainly prove devastating to both sides.
Already, more than 500 people have been killed in Lebanon by Israeli strikes since Oct. 8, most of them fighters with Hezbollah and other armed groups but also more than 100 civilians. In northern Israel, at least 23 soldiers and 26 civilians have been killed by strikes from Lebanon.
Israel inflicted heavy damage on Lebanon during a monthlong war against Hezbollah in 2006 that ended in a stalemate. Israeli leaders have threatened even tougher action this time around, vowing to repeat the scenes of destruction from Gaza in Lebanon.
But Hezbollah also has built up its capabilities since 2006. Hezbollah has an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles, some believed to have guidance systems that could threaten sensitive targets in Israel. It has also developed an increasingly sophisticated fleet of drones.
Capable of striking all parts of Israel, Hezbollah could bring life in Israel to a standstill and send hundreds of thousands of Israelis fleeing.



With Hospitals Full in Lebanon, Family Flees to Give Birth in Iraq

Lubana Ismail, a displaced Lebanese woman who fled from her home in Tyre due to Israeli bombardments in Southern Lebanon, holds her newborn baby girl, Zahraa, to whom she gave birth in Iraq, as she sits with her family at a hotel in Najaf, Iraq, October 7, 2024. (Reuters)
Lubana Ismail, a displaced Lebanese woman who fled from her home in Tyre due to Israeli bombardments in Southern Lebanon, holds her newborn baby girl, Zahraa, to whom she gave birth in Iraq, as she sits with her family at a hotel in Najaf, Iraq, October 7, 2024. (Reuters)
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With Hospitals Full in Lebanon, Family Flees to Give Birth in Iraq

Lubana Ismail, a displaced Lebanese woman who fled from her home in Tyre due to Israeli bombardments in Southern Lebanon, holds her newborn baby girl, Zahraa, to whom she gave birth in Iraq, as she sits with her family at a hotel in Najaf, Iraq, October 7, 2024. (Reuters)
Lubana Ismail, a displaced Lebanese woman who fled from her home in Tyre due to Israeli bombardments in Southern Lebanon, holds her newborn baby girl, Zahraa, to whom she gave birth in Iraq, as she sits with her family at a hotel in Najaf, Iraq, October 7, 2024. (Reuters)

Lubana Ismail had just fled her village in southern Lebanon with her husband and two children when she went into labor. She had swollen veins in her uterus and needed immediate medical supervision to give birth safely.

They searched for a hospital in Beirut or Sidon that would admit her, but all were full of the dead and wounded.

"No hospital accepted me. We were turned away everywhere until my father suggested we go to Iraq," she recounted.

So they boarded a flight and flew to Najaf. It was there, in a former war zone 1,000 km (600 miles) from home, that Lubana finally gave birth to baby Zahraa, healthy and safe.

The proud father, Fouad Youssef, recounted the perils of their evacuation.

"At first, we went to Tyre, but a strike hit directly next to us. We decided to go to Beirut, thinking it would be safer, but even on the way, a strike hit near us,” he said.

"During our two days of displacement, I tried to get my wife into a hospital because her labor was difficult. But due to the high number of injuries and martyrs, there were no vacancies."

More than a million Lebanese have fled their homes since Israel intensified its airstrikes and launched a ground campaign in southern Lebanon against the Hezbollah movement which has been striking Israel in solidarity with the Palestinians.

Imran Riza, UN humanitarian coordinator, said the pace of displacement since Sept. 23 had exceeded worst case scenarios, and too much damage was being done to civilian infrastructure.

Najaf is accustomed to handling the emergency medical needs of foreigners, and Iraqis have endured almost two decades of war at home. But receiving refugees from Lebanon is unexpected. Iraq's interior ministry says around 5,700 Lebanese have arrived so far.

Lubana and Fouad are grateful to have found a safe place to bring their family and give birth to their daughter. But they have no idea what will come next.

"We are afraid the war will go on for a long time. What will happen to our children? We were preparing them for school, but now there is no education. Are we going to stay here? Are we leaving? Are we going back to our country?" pondered Youssef, watching news of the destruction in Lebanon on his mobile screen.