A Modern ‘Trojan Horse’: Two Days of Mayhem in Lebanon

A Hezbollah fighter salutes during funeral of two people who died in communication devices blasts, in Beirut, Lebanon, 19 September 2024. (EPA)
A Hezbollah fighter salutes during funeral of two people who died in communication devices blasts, in Beirut, Lebanon, 19 September 2024. (EPA)
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A Modern ‘Trojan Horse’: Two Days of Mayhem in Lebanon

A Hezbollah fighter salutes during funeral of two people who died in communication devices blasts, in Beirut, Lebanon, 19 September 2024. (EPA)
A Hezbollah fighter salutes during funeral of two people who died in communication devices blasts, in Beirut, Lebanon, 19 September 2024. (EPA)

It's around 3:30 in the afternoon on September 17. People in Lebanon are going about their daily business, doing the shopping, having a haircut, conducting meetings.

Hundreds of pagers across the country, and even outside its borders, then simultaneously bleep with a message and explode, wounding and killing their owners and also bystanders.

The communications devices were used by members of the Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah, which swiftly blamed Israel for the operation, as did several international media organizations.

Israel, according to its convention for operations outside its borders, neither confirmed nor denied the charge.

But observers say that the simultaneous explosions bear all the hallmarks of an operation by Israel, which appears to have infiltrated the supply chain of the pager production and inserted tiny but potent explosives inside.

Israel may have even set up a shell company to supply the devices to Hezbollah in a years-long project that would seem fantastical even in an espionage thriller, according to analysts.

But that was not the end. A day later, on September 18, around the same time in the afternoon, another low-fi gadget, the walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah cadres, exploded, even amid the funerals for those killed in the pager attacks.

The subsequent day, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, who himself had told group members to use low-fi devices so as not to be targeted by Israel through the positioning of their smartphones, made his first public comments, admitting an "unprecedented blow" but also vowing "tough retribution and just punishment" for Israel.

Even though there is next to no doubt Israel was behind the operation, questions abounded. Why now? Is this the start of the widely-feared Israeli offensive into southern Lebanon? Or has Israel simply activated the explosives now simply because it feared the whole operation risked being compromised?

- 'In the midst of their ordinary lives' -

The explosions were felt Hezbollah's strongholds throughout Lebanon: the southern Beirut suburbs, the south of the country and the Bekaa Valley in the east, as well as in Syria.

At least 37 people were killed in the two attacks and thousands injured.

The wounded included Iran's ambassador to Lebanon. But those killed also included a 10-year-old girl and another child. As the hospitals filled up the most common wounds were mutilated hands and eyes.

"Hezbollah suffered a very serious blow on a tactical level, a very impressive and comprehensive one that affects the operational side, the cognitive side," said Yoram Schweitzer, a former intelligence officer now at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.

Peter Harling, founder of the Synaps Lab think tank added: "The targets may have been Hezbollah members, but many were caught in the midst of their ordinary lives, and in the heart of their communities."

"This is also a breach that is extraordinarily hard to explain."

UN rights chief Volker Turk warned that the simultaneous targeting of thousands of individuals "whether civilians or members of armed groups" without knowledge as to who was around them at the time "violates international human rights law".

International humanitarian law prohibits the use of "booby traps" precisely to avoid putting civilians at grave risk and "produce the devastating scenes that continue to unfold across Lebanon", said Lama Fakih, Middle East and North Africa Director at Human Rights Watch.

- 'Israeli front' -

Espionage professionals have meanwhile expressed their admiration for how the operation was put together.

"It's not a technological feat," said a person working for a European intelligence service, asking not to be named. But "it's the result of human intelligence and heavy logistics."

The small devices, bearing the name of the firm Gold Apollo in Taiwan, were intercepted by Israeli services before their arrival in Lebanon, according to multiple security sources who spoke to AFP, asking not to be named.

But the Taiwanese company denied having manufactured them and pointed to its Hungarian partner BAC.

Founded in 2022, the company is registered in Budapest. Its CEO, Cristiana Barsony-Arcidiacono, appears there as the only employee.

The devices in question have never been on Hungarian soil, according to the Hungarian authorities.

The New York Times, citing three intelligence sources, said BAC was "part of an Israeli front" with at least two other shell companies were created as well to mask the real identities of the people creating the pagers who were Israeli intelligence officers.

It described the pagers as a "modern day Trojan Horse" after the wooden horse said to have been used by the Greeks to enter the city of Troy in the Trojan War.

- 'Impressive operation' -

The attack comes nearly a year after Hezbollah ally Hamas carried out its October 7 attack on Israel, sparking the war in Gaza.

The focus of Israel's firepower has since been on the Palestinian territory, but Hezbollah fighters and Israeli troops have exchanged fire almost daily across the border region since October, forcing thousands on both sides to flee their homes.

Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said the focus of the war was shifting towards Lebanon, while the government said securing the northern front was a key objective, in order to allow Israelis evacuated from the area to return home.

Schweitzer said that despite the spectacular nature of the device operation it did not represent the end of Israel's work to degrade Hezbollah.

"I don't think this impressive operation that has its tactical gains... is getting into the strategic layers yet.

"It does not change the equation, it is not a decisive victory. But it sends another signal to Hezbollah, Iran and others," he said.



Is All-Out War Inevitable? The View from Israel and Lebanon

Smoke billows after an Israeli strike near the southern Lebanese village of Al-Mahmoudiye on September 24, 2024. (AFP)
Smoke billows after an Israeli strike near the southern Lebanese village of Al-Mahmoudiye on September 24, 2024. (AFP)
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Is All-Out War Inevitable? The View from Israel and Lebanon

Smoke billows after an Israeli strike near the southern Lebanese village of Al-Mahmoudiye on September 24, 2024. (AFP)
Smoke billows after an Israeli strike near the southern Lebanese village of Al-Mahmoudiye on September 24, 2024. (AFP)

The relentless exchanges of fire between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah of recent days have stoked fears the longtime foes are moving inexorably towards all-out war, despite international appeals for restraint.

AFP correspondents in Jerusalem and Beirut talked to officials and analysts who told them what the opposing sides hope to achieve by ramping up their attacks and whether there is any way out.

- View from Israel -

Israeli officials insist they have been left with no choice but to respond to Hezbollah after its near-daily rocket fire emptied communities near the border with Lebanon for almost a year.

"Hezbollah's actions have turned southern Lebanon into a battlefield," a military official said in a briefing on Monday.

The goals of Israel's latest operation are to "degrade" the threat posed by Hezbollah, push Hezbollah fighters away from the border and destroy infrastructure built by its elite Radwan Force, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Israeli political analyst Michael Horowitz said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to pressure Hezbollah to agree to halt its cross-border attacks even without a ceasefire deal in Gaza, which has been a prerequisite for the Iran-backed armed group.

"I think the Israeli strategy is clear: Israel wants to gradually put pressure on Hezbollah, and strike harder and harder, in order to force it to rethink its alignment strategy with regard to Gaza," Horowitz said.

Both sides understand the risks of all-out war, meaning it is not inevitable, he said.

The two sides fought a devastating 34-day war in the summer of 2006 which cost more than 1,200 lives in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and some 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers.

"This is an extremely dangerous situation, but one that for me still leaves room for diplomacy to avoid the worst," said Horowitz.

Retired Colonel Miri Eisen, a senior fellow at Israel's International Institute for Counter-Terrorism at Reichman University, said that the Israeli leadership saw ramped-up military operations against Hezbollah as an essential step towards striking any agreement to de-escalate.

"The language they (Hezbollah) speak is a language of violence and power and that means actions are very important against them," she said.

"I wish it was otherwise. But I have not seen any other language that works."

For now, Israeli officials say they are focused on aerial operations, but Eisen said a ground incursion could be ordered to achieve a broader goal: ensuring Hezbollah can not carry out anything similar to Hamas's October 7 attack.

"I do think that there's the possibility of a ground incursion because at the end we need to move the Hezbollah forces" away from the border, she said.

- View from Lebanon -

After sabotage attacks on Hezbollah communications devices and an air strike on the command of its Radwan Force last week, the group's deputy leader Naim Qassem declared that the battle with Israel had entered a "new phase" of "open reckoning".

As Lebanon's health ministry announced that nearly 500 people had been killed on Monday in the deadliest single day since the 2006 war, a Hezbollah source acknowledged that the situation was now similar.

"Things are taking an escalatory turn to reach a situation similar to" 2006, the Hezbollah source told AFP, requesting anonymity to discuss the matter.

Amal Saad, a Lebanese researcher on Hezbollah who is based at Cardiff University, said that while the group would feel it has to strike back at Israel after suffering such a series of blows, it would seek to calibrate its response so that it does not spark an all-out war.

While Hezbollah did step up its attacks on Israel after its military commander Fuad Shukr was killed in an Israeli strike in Beirut in late July, its response was seen as being carefully calibrated not to provoke a full-scale conflict that carries huge risks for the movement.

"It will most likely, again, be a kind of sub-threshold (reaction) in the sense of below the threshold of war -- a controlled escalation, but one that's also qualitatively different," she said.

Saad said that whether or not war can be avoided may not be in Hezbollah's hands, but the group would be bolstered by memories of how it fared when Israel last launched a ground invasion and the belief that it was stronger militarily than its ally Hamas which has been battling Israeli troops in Gaza for nearly a year.

"It is extremely capable -- and I would say more effective than Israel -- when it comes to ground war, underground offensive, and we've seen this historically, particularly in 2006," she said.

Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said last week that his fighters could fight Israeli forces in southern Lebanon and fire rockets at northern Israel at the same time in the event of an Israeli ground operation to create a buffer zone.

In a report released Monday, the International Crisis Group said the recent escalation between the two sides "poses grave dangers".

"The point may be approaching at which Hezbollah decides that only a massive response can stop Israel from carrying out more attacks that impair it further," it said.