What to Know about the Growing Conflict between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah

The past week has seen a rapid escalation in the nearly yearlong conflict between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. First came two days of exploding pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah — deadly attacks pinned on Israel that also maimed civilians across Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s leader vowed to retaliate, and on Friday the militant group launched a wave of rockets into northern Israel, The Associated Press reported. Later in the day, the commander of Hezbollah’s most elite unit was killed in a strike in Beirut that killed dozens more people.
The cross-border attacks ramped up early Sunday, with Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed group that is Lebanon’s most powerful armed force, launching more than 100 rockets deeper into northern Israel, with some landing near the city of Haifa. Israel launched hundreds of strikes on Lebanon.
Then, on Monday, Israel launched a series of strikes that killed more than 490 Lebanese, the deadliest attack since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. Israel warned residents in southern and eastern Lebanon to leave their homes ahead of a spreading air campaign against Hezbollah.
Many fear the escalating violence could lead to an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah, which would further destabilize a region already shaken by the fighting in Gaza. Both sides have said they don't want that to happen, even as they have defiantly warned of heavier attacks.
Israel and Hezbollah have launched repeated strikes against each other since the Gaza war began, but both sides have pulled back when the spiral of reprisals appeared on the verge of getting out of control, under heavy pressure from the US and its allies. But in recent weeks, Israeli leaders have warned of a possible bigger military operation to stop attacks from Lebanon to allow hundreds of thousands of Israelis displaced by the fighting to return to homes near the border.
Here are some things to know about the situation:
What were the latest strikes? More than 1,600 Lebanese were injured in Monday's deadly strikes and thousands more fled southern Lebanon. Israel said it was targeting Hezbollah weapons sites, and had hit some 1,600 targets. Lebanon's health minister said hospitals, medical centers and ambulances had been struck.
The Israeli military warned residents to immediately leave areas where Hezbollah is storing weapons. The Lebanese media said the evacuation warning was repeated in text messages.
Hezbollah said it had fired dozens of rockets toward Israel, including at military bases, and officials said a series of air-raid sirens were ringing out in northern Israel warning of rocket attacks.
On Friday, an Israeli airstrike brought down a high-rise building in Beirut’s southern suburbs, killing Ibrahim Akil, the commander of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan unit, and other top unit leaders. Israel said Akil led the group’s campaign of rocket, drone and other fire into northern Israel. At least 45 people were killed in that attack and more than 60 wounded.
That strike came after the shock of the electronic device bombings, in which thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah detonated on Tuesday and Wednesday. At least 37 people were killed, including two children, and around 3,000 were wounded. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement.
Analysts say that attack had little effect on Hezbollah’s manpower, but could disrupt its communications and force it to take tighter security measures.
What is the situation on the border? The Israel-Lebanon border has seen almost daily exchanges since the Israel-Hamas war began on Oct. 7. Before Monday, the exchanges had killed around 600 people in Lebanon – mostly fighters but also about 100 civilians — and about 50 soldiers and civilians in Israel. It has also forced hundreds of thousands of people to evacuate homes near the border in both Israel and Lebanon.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah promised to retaliate for the electronic device bombings. But Hezbollah also has proved wary of further stoking the crisis. The group faces a difficult balance of stretching the rules of engagement by hitting deeper into Israel in response to its brazen attacks, while at the same time trying to avoid the kind of large-scale attacks on civilian areas that can trigger a full-scale war that it could be blamed for.
Hezbollah says its attacks against Israel are in support of Hamas. Last week, Nasrallah said the barrages won’t end — and Israelis won’t be able to return to homes in the north — until Israel’s campaign in Gaza ends.
What is Israel planning? Israeli officials say they haven’t yet made an official decision to expand military operations against Hezbollah – and haven’t said publicly what those operations might be. Last week, though, the head of Israel’s Northern Command was quoted in local media as advocating for a ground invasion of Lebanon.
Meanwhile, as fighting in Gaza has slowed, Israel has increased its forces along the Lebanese border, including the arrival of a powerful army division believed to include thousands of troops.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant last week declared the start of a “new phase” of the war as Israel turns its focus toward Hezbollah.
“The center of gravity is shifting to the north,” he said.
A UN-brokered truce to the 2006 war called on Hezbollah to pull back 29 kilometers (18 miles) from the border, but it has refused, accusing Israel of also failing to carry out some provisions. Israel is now demanding Hezbollah withdraw eight to 10 kilometers (five to six miles) from the border – the range of Hezbollah’s anti-tank guided missiles.
The monthlong 2006 war, triggered when Hezbollah fighters kidnapped two Israeli soldiers, included heavy Israeli bombardment of southern Lebanon and Beirut and a ground invasion into the south. The strategy, Israeli commanders later said, was to inflict maximum damage in areas where Hezbollah operated to deter them from launching attacks.
But Israel could have a more ambitious goal this time: to seize a buffer zone in south Lebanon to push back Hezbollah fighters from the border. A fight to hold territory threatens a longer, even more destructive and destabilizing war – recalling Israel’s 1982-2000 occupation of southern Lebanon.
What would be the impact of a full-blown war? The fear is that a new war could be even worse than the one in 2006, which was traumatic enough for both sides to serve as a deterrent ever since.
The fighting then killed hundreds of Hezbollah fighters and an estimated 1,100 Lebanese civilians and left large swaths of the south and even parts of Beirut in ruins. More than 120 Israeli soldiers were killed and hundreds wounded. Hezbollah missile fire on Israeli cities killed dozens of civilians.
Israel estimates that Hezbollah now possesses about 150,000 rockets and missiles, some of which are precision-guided, putting the entire country within range. Israel has beefed up air defenses, but it’s unclear whether it can defend against the intense barrages of a new war.
Israel has vowed it could turn all of southern Lebanon into a battle zone, saying Hezbollah has embedded rockets, weapons and forces along the border. And in the heightened rhetoric of the past months, Israeli politicians have spoken of inflicting the same damage in Lebanon that the military has wreaked in Gaza.

The relentless exchanges of fire between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah of recent days have stoked fears the longtime foes are moving inexorably towards all-out war, despite international appeals for restraint.

AFP correspondents in Jerusalem and Beirut talked to officials and analysts who told them what the opposing sides hope to achieve by ramping up their attacks and whether there is any way out.

- View from Israel -

Israeli officials insist they have been left with no choice but to respond to Hezbollah after its near-daily rocket fire emptied communities near the border with Lebanon for almost a year.

"Hezbollah's actions have turned southern Lebanon into a battlefield," a military official said in a briefing on Monday.

The goals of Israel's latest operation are to "degrade" the threat posed by Hezbollah, push Hezbollah fighters away from the border and destroy infrastructure built by its elite Radwan Force, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Israeli political analyst Michael Horowitz said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to pressure Hezbollah to agree to halt its cross-border attacks even without a ceasefire deal in Gaza, which has been a prerequisite for the Iran-backed armed group.

"I think the Israeli strategy is clear: Israel wants to gradually put pressure on Hezbollah, and strike harder and harder, in order to force it to rethink its alignment strategy with regard to Gaza," Horowitz said.

Both sides understand the risks of all-out war, meaning it is not inevitable, he said.

The two sides fought a devastating 34-day war in the summer of 2006 which cost more than 1,200 lives in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and some 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers.

"This is an extremely dangerous situation, but one that for me still leaves room for diplomacy to avoid the worst," said Horowitz.

Retired Colonel Miri Eisen, a senior fellow at Israel's International Institute for Counter-Terrorism at Reichman University, said that the Israeli leadership saw ramped-up military operations against Hezbollah as an essential step towards striking any agreement to de-escalate.

"The language they (Hezbollah) speak is a language of violence and power and that means actions are very important against them," she said.

"I wish it was otherwise. But I have not seen any other language that works."

For now, Israeli officials say they are focused on aerial operations, but Eisen said a ground incursion could be ordered to achieve a broader goal: ensuring Hezbollah can not carry out anything similar to Hamas's October 7 attack.

"I do think that there's the possibility of a ground incursion because at the end we need to move the Hezbollah forces" away from the border, she said.

- View from Lebanon -

After sabotage attacks on Hezbollah communications devices and an air strike on the command of its Radwan Force last week, the group's deputy leader Naim Qassem declared that the battle with Israel had entered a "new phase" of "open reckoning".

As Lebanon's health ministry announced that nearly 500 people had been killed on Monday in the deadliest single day since the 2006 war, a Hezbollah source acknowledged that the situation was now similar.

"Things are taking an escalatory turn to reach a situation similar to" 2006, the Hezbollah source told AFP, requesting anonymity to discuss the matter.

Amal Saad, a Lebanese researcher on Hezbollah who is based at Cardiff University, said that while the group would feel it has to strike back at Israel after suffering such a series of blows, it would seek to calibrate its response so that it does not spark an all-out war.

While Hezbollah did step up its attacks on Israel after its military commander Fuad Shukr was killed in an Israeli strike in Beirut in late July, its response was seen as being carefully calibrated not to provoke a full-scale conflict that carries huge risks for the movement.

"It will most likely, again, be a kind of sub-threshold (reaction) in the sense of below the threshold of war -- a controlled escalation, but one that's also qualitatively different," she said.

Saad said that whether or not war can be avoided may not be in Hezbollah's hands, but the group would be bolstered by memories of how it fared when Israel last launched a ground invasion and the belief that it was stronger militarily than its ally Hamas which has been battling Israeli troops in Gaza for nearly a year.

"It is extremely capable -- and I would say more effective than Israel -- when it comes to ground war, underground offensive, and we've seen this historically, particularly in 2006," she said.

Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said last week that his fighters could fight Israeli forces in southern Lebanon and fire rockets at northern Israel at the same time in the event of an Israeli ground operation to create a buffer zone.

In a report released Monday, the International Crisis Group said the recent escalation between the two sides "poses grave dangers".

"The point may be approaching at which Hezbollah decides that only a massive response can stop Israel from carrying out more attacks that impair it further," it said.

What to Know about the Growing Conflict between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah