Gaza War Resonates But Has Global Diplomacy Shifted One Year On?

A year after the October 7 attack that sparked war in Gaza, diplomacy has failed to produce a ceasefire and the world watches on as the death toll mounts.
Fears of war engulfing the wider region have soared as exchanges of fire have escalated between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
Over the past year, South Africa has taken Israel to court and some European governments have drawn Israeli anger by recognizing the State of Palestine, but analysts say only a radical change in US policy can stop the conflict, AFP said.
Here is a breakdown:
How has the war resonated?
Palestinian militant group Hamas carried out an unprecedented attack against Israel on October 7, resulting in the deaths of 1,205 people on the Israeli side, most of them civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli official figures, which includes hostages killed in captivity.
Out of 251 people taken hostage that day, 97 are still being held inside Gaza, including 33 the Israeli military says are dead.
Israel's retaliatory military campaign in Gaza has killed more than 41,000 Palestinians, a majority of them civilians, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory.
To the north, Israeli air strikes killed at least 558 people in Lebanon on Monday in the country's deadliest day of violence since the 1975-1990 civil war, the health ministry said.
Around the world, the conflict has had a polarizing effect, generating passionate support for both sides.
"This war has considerably deepened fracture lines," said analyst Karim Bitar.
"What is happening today in Lebanon only compounds this."
For many people, especially in countries which experienced colonial rule, the West's perceived failure to defend the human rights of Palestinians had exposed its "hypocrisy", he said.
In the Arab world, "there is this idea that all great principles fly out the window when it comes to Israel and that the West remains consumed by guilt" from World War II and the Holocaust.
Palestinian historian and diplomat Elias Sanbar said that the West had given the Israelis a "carte-blanche of impunity" for decades, ever since the creation of Israel in 1948.
But today "it will be much harder to show unconditional support to Israel", he said.
Has international law prevailed?
South Africa in December brought a case before the International Court of Justice, arguing the war in Gaza breached the 1948 UN Genocide Convention, an accusation Israel has strongly denied.
Colombia, Libya, Spain, Mexico, Türkiye and Chile have since joined the case.
Analyst Rym Momtaz said the ICJ proceedings against Israel were "unprecedented".
"International law is taking over the issue," she said.
In May, the prosecutor for the International Criminal Court sought arrest warrants against top Hamas leaders -- but also Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his defense minister -- on suspicion of war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Since October 7, violence against Palestinians has also flared in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, where far-right parties in the governing coalition have championed a quickening expansion of Israeli settlements, regarded as illegal under international law.
At least 680 Palestinians have been killed in the territory by Israeli troops or settlers, according to the Palestinian health ministry.
UN member states have adopted a non-binding resolution to formally demand an end to the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories within 12 months.
But Israeli historian and diplomat Elie Barnavi said his country "doesn't care" about what the so-called global South thinks.
Is European support for Israel waning?
Some European governments have taken a stance.
Slovenia, Spain, Ireland and Norway have recognized the State of Palestine, drawing retaliatory moves from Israel.
The European Union has implemented sanctions against "extremist" settlers, and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has called for more against some far-right members of the Israeli government.
The United Kingdom has suspended 30 of 350 arms exports licenses for Israel.
Barnavi noted a "real shift in the attitude of Europeans towards Israel", but said it was "insufficient".
Zeenat Adam, of the Afro-Middle East Centre in South Africa, said the UK arms exports suspension was "minuscule".
"The recent 'recognition' by European states of Palestine is mere lip-service," she added.
In the end, said Sanbar, countries in Europe largely still supported Israel, even if "a sort of embarrassment" at times triggered statements of concern.
"It's simply not enough," he said.
What of the United States?
All eyes are instead on Israel's main ally the United States, which has pushed for a ceasefire but kept up its military aid to Israel.
"If the United States does not change their stance, there will be no change," said Momtaz.
"There has been no real fraying of US military support to Israel. Yet it's that support that is crucial and makes all the difference," she said.
The Israeli defense ministry said on Thursday it had secured a new $8.7 billion US aid package to support the country's ongoing military efforts, including upgrading air defense systems.
Momtaz said it was not clear that the US presidential election in November would change anything, regardless of whether the winner was Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.
"There has been no sign that a Trump or Harris administration would be ready to use US leverage, the only efficient means to help both parties stop this war," she said.
Bitar said that among US voters, the Jewish community and young progressive Democrats were more openly distancing themselves from Israel, but that might only have a political impact in 10 to 15 years' time.
No end in sight?
The Gaza war has revived talk of a so-called "two-state solution" of Israeli and Palestinian states living in peace side by side, but that goal seems today more unattainable than ever.
For too many years, the international community "promised a two-state solution without doing anything to end the occupation, to end settlements to make a Palestinian state viable," Bitar said.
"Many believe the train has left the station, that it's perhaps already too late," Bitar said.
Barnavi said there was "no other solution", though it would involve dismantling most settlements in the West Bank.
"It would imply a lot of violence, including a period of civil war in Israel," he said.
Sanbar said: "Never have the two sides been so distanced from each other. I don't know what could bring them closer."

The Israeli security apparatuses are investigating the type of kamikaze drone that Hezbollah used on Sunday evening to hit a Golani Brigade base near Binyamina south of Haifa, killing four soldiers and wounding about 90 others, including 12 soldiers with serious injuries.

Ron Ben-Yishai, a security expert at the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, said that from the limited details currently available, the drone was likely a Sayyad 107 model, a UAV manufactured in Iran and widely used by Hezbollah, which also produces it in large quantities in Lebanon.

“The model’s flight path can be programmed to frequently change altitude and direction, making it difficult to detect and track,” Ben-Yishai said.

“It has a range of up to 100 kilometers (62 miles) and is small, with a very low radar signature compared to larger, metal-made UAVs. Its detection relies on the heat emitted by the engine, which is also challenging to identify via optical means,” he added.

According to the security expert, the military is examining all possibilities, but it's almost certain that the UAV, which hit a critical target and caused many casualties, wasn't only a specialized model but also Hezbollah managed to overwhelm or disrupt the Israeli army’s detection systems by launching a mixed salvo of rockets and two other drones aimed at the Western Galilee.

Ben-Yishai noted that the UAVs continued toward the sea off the northern coast and the Iron Dome system intercepted one.

The Israeli army dispatched fighter jets and combat helicopters to track the remaining UAV, but contact with it was lost, he said.

The expert said it is possible that the UAV was pre-programmed to sharply descend toward the ground or the sea and continue flying at low altitude, exploiting the coastal terrain and then the hills of the coastal plain to evade interceptors.

“Hezbollah has gained considerable experience in operating UAVs over the past year, successfully causing numerous casualties among civilians and primarily IDF soldiers at remote bases,” Ben-Yishai wrote, adding that over half of the drones launched by Hezbollah are intercepted, either by the Israeli army fighter jets sent to engage them or by the Iron Dome and David's Sling systems.

However, he noted, due to the UAV's small size and very weak radar signature, the Iron Dome's fire control radars and the optical sensors on fighter jets and helicopters often lose track of them, especially in hilly areas where radar echoes from the terrain are dominant and misleading.

Ben-Yishai revealed that the Israeli army and defense industries have been trying to find a solution to this issue at least since the current war began, but there is still no effective detection and interception solution.

He said the sophisticated UAVs manufactured by Iran are equipped with inertial navigation systems in addition to satellite navigation, enabling them to stay on course and strike their targets even when faced with GPS jamming.

“This is intended to mislead them, but Iran and Hezbollah sometimes bypass the American GPS jamming by using unique satellite navigation systems developed by Russia or China,” Ben-Yishai said.

Gaza War Resonates But Has Global Diplomacy Shifted One Year On?