After Pressing an Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire, the Biden Administration Shifts Its Message

 An Israeli mobile artillery unit fires a shell from northern Israel towards Lebanon, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. (AP)
An Israeli mobile artillery unit fires a shell from northern Israel towards Lebanon, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. (AP)
TT

After Pressing an Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire, the Biden Administration Shifts Its Message

 An Israeli mobile artillery unit fires a shell from northern Israel towards Lebanon, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. (AP)
An Israeli mobile artillery unit fires a shell from northern Israel towards Lebanon, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. (AP)

The Biden administration says there is a significant difference between Israeli actions that have expanded its war against the Iranian-backed armed groups Hamas and Hezbollah and Iran’s retaliatory missile attack against Israel, which it condemned as escalatory.

In carefully calibrated remarks, officials across the administration are defending the surge in attacks by Israel against Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon, while still pressing for peace and vowing retribution after Iran fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday.

President Joe Biden praised the US and Israel militaries for defeating the barrage and warned, “Make no mistake, the United States is fully, fully supportive of Israel.”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the Iranian missile attack “totally unacceptable, and the entire world should condemn it.”

There was little criticism that Israel may have provoked Iran's assault. "Obviously, this is a significant escalation by Iran,” national security adviser Jake Sullivan said.

Just a week after calling urgently for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah to avoid the possibility of all-out war in the Middle East, the administration has shifted its message as Israel presses ahead with ground incursions in Lebanon following a massive airstrike Friday in Beirut that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Gen. Abbas Nilforushan.

US officials stress that they have repeatedly come out in support of Israel’s right to defend itself and that any change in their language only reflects evolving conditions on the ground. And, officials say the administration’s goal — a ceasefire — has remained constant.

The US has been quick to praise and defend Israel for a series of recent strikes killing Hezbollah leaders. In contrast to its repeated criticism of Israel's war in Gaza that has killed civilians, the US has taken a different tack on strikes that targeted Nasrallah and others but also may have killed innocent people.

At the Pentagon, Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder made it clear that while the US is still “laser focused” on preventing a wider conflict in the Middle East, he carved out broad leeway for Israel to keep going after Hezbollah to protect itself.

“We understand and support Israel’s right to defend itself against Hezbollah,” Ryder said. “We understand that part of that is dismantling some of the attack infrastructure that Hezbollah has built along the border.”

He said the US is going to consult with Israel as it conducts limited operations against Hezbollah positions along the border “that can be used to threaten Israeli citizens.” The goal, he said, is to allow citizens on both sides of the border to return to their homes.

Part of the ongoing discussions that the US will have with Israel, Ryder said, will focus on making sure there’s an understanding about potential “mission creep” that could lead to tensions to escalate even further.

State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Tuesday that Israel’s targeting of senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders as well as its initiation of ground incursions into Lebanon are justified because they were done in self-defense.

“If you look at the actions that they have taken, they were bringing terrorists to justice, terrorists who have launched attacks on Israeli civilians,” Miller said.

By contrast, he said that Iran’s response was dangerous and escalatory because it was done in support of Hamas and Hezbollah, both of which are US-designated terrorist organizations that Iran funds and supports.

“What you saw (was) Iran launching a state-on-state attack to protect and defend the terrorist groups that it built, nurtured and controlled,” Miller said. “So there is a difference between the actions.”

The full-throated defense of Israel, however, may come with risks. So far, there is little evidence that the Biden administration's push for a ceasefire and warnings of broadening the conflict have had much impact on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

In commentary Monday, Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said that US influence on Netanyahu seems to be waning and that he “seems to have blown by US cautions about starting a regional war.”

The White House must “worry that a sustained inability to make diplomatic progress weakens US influence in the Middle East and around the world,” Alterman said, adding that “Netanyahu’s assurance that the United States will stand by Israel in any circumstance emboldens Israel to take more risks than it otherwise would.”



Iran’s Rulers Caught Between Trump’s Crackdown and a Fragile Economy 

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with Iranian students in Tehran, Iran, March 12, 2025. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with Iranian students in Tehran, Iran, March 12, 2025. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters
TT

Iran’s Rulers Caught Between Trump’s Crackdown and a Fragile Economy 

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with Iranian students in Tehran, Iran, March 12, 2025. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with Iranian students in Tehran, Iran, March 12, 2025. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters

For Iran's clerical leaders, engaging with the "Great Satan" to hammer out a nuclear deal and ease crippling sanctions may for once be the lesser of two evils.

Though it harbors deep mistrust of the United States, and President Donald Trump in particular, Tehran is increasingly concerned that mounting public anger over economic hardships could erupt into mass protests, four Iranian officials said.

That's why, despite the unyielding stance and defiant rhetoric of Iran's clerical leaders in public, there is a pragmatic willingness within Tehran's corridors of power to strike a deal with Washington, the people said.

Tehran's concerns were exacerbated by Trump's speedy revival of his first term's "maximum pressure" campaign to drive Iran's oil exports towards zero with more sanctions and bring the country's already fragile economy to its knees, they said.

President Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly highlighted the severity of the economic situation in the country, stating that it is more challenging than during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, and pointing this month to the latest round of US sanctions targeting tankers carrying Iranian oil.

One of the Iranian officials said leaders were concerned that cutting off all diplomatic avenues might further fuel domestic discontent against Ali Khamenei - given he is the ultimate decision maker in the country.

"There is no question whatsoever that the man who has been the Supreme Leader since 1989 and his foreign policy preferences are more guilty than anybody else for the state of affairs," said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute think-tank in Washington.

It was Iran's weak economy that pushed Khamenei to give tentative backing to the nuclear agreement struck with major powers in 2015, leading to a lifting of Western sanctions and an improvement in economic conditions. But then-President Trump's renewed onslaught against Iran after he pulled out of the nuclear pact in 2018 squeezed living standards once more.

"The situation worsens daily. I can't afford my rent, pay my bills, or buy clothes for my children," said Alireza Yousefi, 42, a teacher from Isfahan. "Now, more sanctions will make survival impossible."

Iran's foreign ministry did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.

'ON EQUAL TERMS'

At the same time as upping the pressure on Iran with new sanctions and threats of military action, Trump also opened the door to negotiations by sending a letter to Khamenei proposing nuclear talks.

Khamenei spurned the offer on Wednesday, saying repeatedly that Washington was imposing excessive demands and that Tehran would not be bullied into negotiations.

"If we enter negotiations while the other side is imposing maximum pressure, we will be negotiating from a weak position and will achieve nothing," Iran's top diplomat Abbas Araqchi told the Iran newspaper in an interview published on Thursday.

"The other side must be convinced that the policy of pressure is ineffective - only then can we sit at the negotiating table on equal terms," he said.

One senior Iranian official said there was no alternative but to reach an agreement, and that it was possible, though the road ahead would be bumpy given Iran's distrust of Trump after he abandoned the 2015 deal.

Iran has staved off economic collapse largely thanks to China, the main buyer of its oil and one of the few nations still trading with Tehran despite sanctions.

Oil exports slumped after Trump ditched the nuclear deal but have recovered in the past few years, bringing in more than $50 billion in revenue in both 2022 and 2023 as Iran found ways to skirt sanctions, according to US Energy Information Administration estimates.

Yet uncertainty looms over the sustainability of the exports as Trump's maximum pressure policy aims to throttle Iran's crude sales with multiple rounds of sanctions on tankers and entities involved in the trade.

PUBLIC ANGER SIMMERS

Iran's rulers are also facing a string of other crises - energy and water shortages, a collapsing currency, military setbacks among regional allies and growing fears of an Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities - all intensified by Trump's tough stance.

The energy and water sectors are suffering from a lack of investment in infrastructure, overconsumption driven by subsidies, declining natural gas production and inefficient irrigation, all leading to power blackouts and water shortages.

The Iranian rial has shed more than 90% of its value against the dollar since the sanctions were reimposed in 2018, according to foreign exchange websites, officials and lawmakers.

Amid concerns about Trump's tough approach, Iranians seeking safe havens for their savings have been buying dollars, other hard currencies, gold or cryptocurrencies, suggesting further weakness for the rial, according to state media reports.

The price of rice has soared 200% since last year, state media has reported. Housing and utility costs have spiked sharply, climbing roughly 60% in some Tehran districts and other major cities in recent months, driven by the rial's steep fall and soaring raw material costs, according to media reports.

Official inflation hovers around 40%, though some Iranian experts say it is running at over 50%. The Statistical Center of Iran reported a significant rise in food prices, with over a third of essential commodities increasing by 40% in January to leave them more than double the same month the previous year.

In January, the Tasnim news agency quoted the head of Iran's Institute of Labor and Social Welfare, Ebrahim Sadeghifar, as saying 22% to 27% of Iranians were now below the poverty line.

Iran's Jomhuri-ye Eslami newspaper, meanwhile, said last week that poverty rates stood at around 50%.

"I can barely cover the rent for my carpet shop or pay my workers' salaries. No one has the money to buy carpets. If this continues, I will have to lay off my staff," Morteza, 39, said by phone from Tehran's Grand Bazaar, giving only his first name.

"How do they expect to solve the economic crisis if they refuse to talk to Trump? Just talk to him and reach a deal. You cannot afford pride on an empty stomach."

NUCLEAR RED LINE

Based on Iranian state media reports, there were at least 216 demonstrations across Iran in February, involving retirees, workers, healthcare professionals, students and merchants. The protests largely focused on economic hardships, including low wages and months of unpaid salaries, according to the reports.

While the protests were mostly small-scale, officials fear a deterioration in living standards could be explosive.

"The country is like a powder keg, and further economic strain could be the spark that sets it off," said one of the four officials, who is close to the government.

Iran's ruling elite is acutely aware of the risk of a resurgence of the unrest similar to the 2022-2023 protests over Mahsa Amini's death in custody, or the nationwide protests in 2019 over fuel price rises, the officials said.

The senior Iranian official said there had been several high-level meetings to discuss the possibility of new mass protests - and potential measures to head them off.

Nevertheless, despite the worries about potential unrest, Iranian officials said Tehran was only prepared to go so far in any talks with Trump, stressing that "excessive demands", such as dismantling Iran's peaceful nuclear program or its conventional missile capabilities, were off the table.

"Yes, there are concerns about more economic pressure, there are concerns about the nation's growing anger, but we cannot sacrifice our right to produce nuclear energy because Trump wants it," the senior official said.

Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, said Iran's rulers believed that negotiating with Trump under coercion would signal weakness, ultimately attracting more pressure than reducing it.

"That is why Khamenei seems to believe that the only thing that is more dangerous than suffering from sanctions is surrendering to them," he said.