UN Warns against 'Catastrophic' Regional Conflict

An armed ultra-Orthodox Jewish man holds a child by the hand as he walks in the Old City in Jerusalem at the start of the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur -AFP
An armed ultra-Orthodox Jewish man holds a child by the hand as he walks in the Old City in Jerusalem at the start of the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur -AFP
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UN Warns against 'Catastrophic' Regional Conflict

An armed ultra-Orthodox Jewish man holds a child by the hand as he walks in the Old City in Jerusalem at the start of the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur -AFP
An armed ultra-Orthodox Jewish man holds a child by the hand as he walks in the Old City in Jerusalem at the start of the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur -AFP

UN peacekeepers in Lebanon warned Saturday against a "catastrophic" regional conflict as Israeli forces battled Hezbollah and Hamas fighters on two fronts, on the holiest day of the Jewish calendar.

Israel has faced a fierce diplomatic backlash over incidents in south Lebanon that saw five Blue Helmets wounded.

On Saturday, the Lebanese health ministry said Israeli airstrikes on two villages located near the capital Beirut killed nine people.

Israel had earlier told residents of south Lebanon not to return home, as its troops launched a war on the country that has killed more than 1,200 people since September 23, and forced more than a million others to flee their homes.

"For your own protection, do not return to your homes until further notice... Do not go south; anyone who goes south may put his life at risk," Israeli military spokesman Avichay Adraee posted on X.

Hezbollah said Saturday it launched missiles across the border into northern Israel, where air raid sirens sounded and the military said it had intercepted a projectile.

In an interview with AFP, UNIFIL spokesman Andrea Tenenti told AFP he feared an Israeli escalation against Hezbollah in south Lebanon could soon spiral out of control "into a regional conflict with catastrophic impact for everyone".

The UN force said five peacekeepers have been wounded by fighting in south Lebanon in just two days, and Tenenti said "a lot of damage" had been caused to its posts there.

Around Israel, markets were closed and public transport halted as observant Jews fasted and prayed on Yom Kippur.

After the holiday, attention is likely to turn again to Israel's expected retaliation against Iran, which launched around 200 missiles at Israel on October 1.

Israel began pounding Gaza shortly after suffering its worst ever attacks from Hamas on October 7 last year, and it launched a ground offensive on Lebanon claiming targets against Hezbollah on September 30.

 

- 'Deliberately targeted' -

 

On Friday, Israel faced criticism from the UN, its Western allies and others over what it said was a "hit" on a UN peacekeeping position in Lebanon.

Two Sri Lankan peacekeepers were hurt in the second such incident in two days, UNIFIL said Friday.

Israel's military said soldiers had responded to "an immediate threat" around 50 metres (yards) from the UNIFIL base in Naqura, and has pledged to carry out a "thorough review".

The Irish military's chief of staff, Sean Clancy, said it was "not an accidental act", and French President Emmanuel Macron said he believed the peacekeepers had been "deliberately targeted".

Both countries are major contributors to UNIFIL whose peacekeepers are on the front line of the Israel-Hezbollah war.

Efforts to negotiate an end to the fighting have so far failed, but Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said his government would ask the UN Security Council to issue a new resolution calling for a "full and immediate ceasefire".

Lebanon's military said Friday an Israeli strike on one of its positions in south Lebanon killed two soldiers.

In a show of support for Iran's ally Hezbollah, the speaker of the Iranian parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf visited the site Saturday of a deadly Israeli strike earlier this week.

A source close to Hezbollah said the strike had targeted Hezbollah's security chief Wafiq Safa, but neither Hezbollah nor Israel has confirmed he was the target.

Ghalibaf's Lebanon visit, a signal of Tehran's defiance, comes after Israel vowed to respond to Iran's second-ever direct attack.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has vowed that the response will be "deadly, precise and surprising".

The United States is pushing for a "proportionate" response that would not tip the region into a wider war, with President Joe Biden urging Israel to avoid striking Iranian nuclear facilities or energy infrastructure.

 

- Gaza deaths -

 

Israeli operations in Gaza continue, with the army laying siege to an area around Jabalia in the north, causing more suffering for hundreds of thousands of people trapped there, according to the UN agency for Palestinian refugees.

Adraee, the Israeli military spokesman, posted another evacuation warning Saturday for an area near Jabalia.

"The specified area, including the shelters within it, is considered a dangerous combat zone," Adraee said on X, ordering residents to move to the humanitarian zone in southern Gaza.

Some residents said they were not prepared to do so.

"They tell us to go south, but we won't go because of the dangers and the army is shooting at people there," 27-year-old Sami Asliya told AFP.

"There is no safe place, neither in the south nor in the north -- everyone is at risk of death," he said.

On Friday, Gaza's civil defense agency reported 30 people killed in Israeli strikes in the area, including on schools being used as shelter by displaced people.

An AFP journalist in Gaza reported heavy shelling, explosions and gunfire Saturday further south in Gaza City's Zeitoun neighbourhood.



Hezbollah’s New Strategy: Gradual Escalation, Focus on Ground Combat

An image of Imad Mughniyeh raised alongside Hezbollah missile launchers during a military drill in southern Lebanon. File photo
An image of Imad Mughniyeh raised alongside Hezbollah missile launchers during a military drill in southern Lebanon. File photo
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Hezbollah’s New Strategy: Gradual Escalation, Focus on Ground Combat

An image of Imad Mughniyeh raised alongside Hezbollah missile launchers during a military drill in southern Lebanon. File photo
An image of Imad Mughniyeh raised alongside Hezbollah missile launchers during a military drill in southern Lebanon. File photo

Since suffering major setbacks on September 17, the day its communication systems were targeted, Hezbollah appears to have outlined a new military strategy for confronting Israel in a potential large-scale war.

The strategy focuses on gradually increasing missile strikes and targeting key sites, while giving priority to ground combat. Hezbollah is aiming to resist Israeli attacks, which have recently spread to south Lebanon’s western sector after a week of fighting in the eastern and central sectors.

In a statement on Tuesday, Hezbollah confirmed its missile forces are ready to strike any location in Israel as directed by its leadership.

The group warned that further Israeli aggression could lead to strikes on Haifa and beyond, making those areas as vulnerable as the border towns of Kiryat Sehmona and Metula. It also hinted that its attacks wouldn’t be limited to missiles and drones.

Hezbollah Preparing for a Long Fight

Military expert Brig. Gen. Hassan Jouni explained that Hezbollah’s current actions are part of an existing plan rather than a new strategy.

“This phase is about implementing plans that were already in place,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Hezbollah is now intensifying its missile use and choosing more significant targets, having delivered recent blows to Haifa.

On the battlefield, Jouni said Hezbollah’s approach is clear: resist Israeli advances and inflict losses.

He emphasized that the group’s goal isn’t to prevent an Israeli occupation but to make it unsustainable. Hezbollah’s defense of the front lines, he added, is aimed at lowering Israeli morale and taking advantage of key positions.

Jouni also highlighted comments by Hezbollah’s deputy leader, Sheikh Naim Qassem, who said a prolonged conflict would put Israel in a tough position, suggesting Hezbollah is prepared for a long fight and will gradually escalate its use of missiles.

Haifa for Beirut’s Southern Suburbs ‘Dahiyeh’

Brig. Gen. Munir Shehadeh, Lebanon’s former coordinator with UNIFIL, said Hezbollah is fighting with little left to lose after Israel’s assassination of its leaders and the destruction of its communities.

Shehadeh suggested that Hezbollah’s strategy would involve targeting areas beyond Haifa and Tel Aviv, already hitting residential areas in Haifa under the “Haifa for Dahiyeh” equation.

Hezbollah, Shehadeh explained, is relying on close-range combat to prove its resilience after severe blows that would normally lead to surrender.

Iran Holds the Key

Retired Brig. Gen. George Nader expressed doubts that any strategy could save Hezbollah after the losses of its leaders and large missile stockpiles. He argued that while Hezbollah may still be able to fight on the ground, it will struggle to withstand a large-scale Israeli invasion.

Nader also noted that if Hezbollah had the capability to strike strategic targets within Israel, it would have already done so. He said the decision to launch such attacks ultimately rests with Iran, not Hezbollah.