The Taiwan Strait: Crucial Waterway and Military Flashpoint

This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)
This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)
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The Taiwan Strait: Crucial Waterway and Military Flashpoint

This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)
This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)

China launched fighter jets and other aircraft over the Taiwan Strait on Monday as part of military drills aimed at sending a "warning" to the self-ruled island.

Here, AFP looks at the critical waterway and growing military flashpoint:

- Where is the Taiwan Strait? -

The strait separates the southeastern Chinese province of Fujian from the main island of Taiwan, home to around 23 million people.

At its narrowest point, just 130 kilometers (about 80 miles) of windswept water separates the two major landmasses, and several outlying Taiwanese islands -- including Kinmen and Matsu -- lie just a few kilometers from the Chinese coastline.

China and Taiwan have been governed separately since Mao Zedong's communist army won a civil war and sent the opposition nationalist forces fleeing across the strait in 1949.

- Why is it important? -

The strait is a critical artery for global shipping through which a huge volume of trade passes every day.

Around $2.45 trillion of goods -- more than a fifth of global maritime trade -- transited the strait in 2022, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

Taiwan plays an outsized role in the global economy thanks to producing over 90 percent of the world's most advanced computing chips, used in everything from smartphones to cutting-edge military equipment.

Analysts say a Chinese invasion would deal a catastrophic blow to these supply chains.

More minor disruptions, such as a blockade of the island, would cause costly shipping cancellations and diversions that would impact worldwide consumers.

"In the event of a long conflict over Taiwan, financial markets would tank, trade would shrivel, and supply chains would freeze, plunging the global economy into a tailspin," Robert A. Manning, a China expert at Washington's Stimson Center, wrote this year.

A report by the Rhodium Group estimated that a blockade of the island could cost firms dependent on Taiwan's chips $1.6 trillion in revenue annually.

An invasion would also endanger Taiwan's way of life, embodied by its democratic freedoms and boisterous elections.

It would also risk a wider conflict because the United States, while not recognizing Taiwan diplomatically, has an agreement to help the island defend itself.

- What has China announced? -

Beijing said that it had launched military exercises called "Joint Sword-2024B" in areas to the north, south and east of Taiwan.

The armed forces deployed fighter jets, bombers and warships in the strait, and also simulated a rocket strike, state media said.

The military also said it had deployed an aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, to "strike on maritime and ground targets in the waters and airspace to the east" of the island.

The coast guard said four fleets were conducting "inspections" around the Taiwanese mainland and disclosed other patrols near Matsu.

The drills "test the joint operations capabilities of the theater command's troops" while sending a "stern warning to the separatist acts of 'Taiwan Independence' forces", according to Chinese authorities.

Taiwan has condemned the actions as "irrational and provocative", and the US has called them "unwarranted".

- Has this happened before? -

In late May, three days after the inauguration of President Lai Ching-te, China launched Joint Sword-2024A, an apparent precursor to the latest drills.

The Chinese military also held three days of drills encircling Taiwan in April last year in response to Lai's predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, meeting with then US Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

And in 2022, Beijing launched over a week of maneuvers after McCarthy's predecessor, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taiwan.

Several major crises punctuated the preceding decades, most recently in 1995-6, when China conducted missile tests around Taiwan.

It is not yet clear how the drills announced on Monday compare in scale and intensity to those of previous years.



UN Warns against 'Catastrophic' Regional Conflict

An armed ultra-Orthodox Jewish man holds a child by the hand as he walks in the Old City in Jerusalem at the start of the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur -AFP
An armed ultra-Orthodox Jewish man holds a child by the hand as he walks in the Old City in Jerusalem at the start of the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur -AFP
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UN Warns against 'Catastrophic' Regional Conflict

An armed ultra-Orthodox Jewish man holds a child by the hand as he walks in the Old City in Jerusalem at the start of the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur -AFP
An armed ultra-Orthodox Jewish man holds a child by the hand as he walks in the Old City in Jerusalem at the start of the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur -AFP

UN peacekeepers in Lebanon warned Saturday against a "catastrophic" regional conflict as Israeli forces battled Hezbollah and Hamas fighters on two fronts, on the holiest day of the Jewish calendar.

Israel has faced a fierce diplomatic backlash over incidents in south Lebanon that saw five Blue Helmets wounded.

On Saturday, the Lebanese health ministry said Israeli airstrikes on two villages located near the capital Beirut killed nine people.

Israel had earlier told residents of south Lebanon not to return home, as its troops launched a war on the country that has killed more than 1,200 people since September 23, and forced more than a million others to flee their homes.

"For your own protection, do not return to your homes until further notice... Do not go south; anyone who goes south may put his life at risk," Israeli military spokesman Avichay Adraee posted on X.

Hezbollah said Saturday it launched missiles across the border into northern Israel, where air raid sirens sounded and the military said it had intercepted a projectile.

In an interview with AFP, UNIFIL spokesman Andrea Tenenti told AFP he feared an Israeli escalation against Hezbollah in south Lebanon could soon spiral out of control "into a regional conflict with catastrophic impact for everyone".

The UN force said five peacekeepers have been wounded by fighting in south Lebanon in just two days, and Tenenti said "a lot of damage" had been caused to its posts there.

Around Israel, markets were closed and public transport halted as observant Jews fasted and prayed on Yom Kippur.

After the holiday, attention is likely to turn again to Israel's expected retaliation against Iran, which launched around 200 missiles at Israel on October 1.

Israel began pounding Gaza shortly after suffering its worst ever attacks from Hamas on October 7 last year, and it launched a ground offensive on Lebanon claiming targets against Hezbollah on September 30.

 

- 'Deliberately targeted' -

 

On Friday, Israel faced criticism from the UN, its Western allies and others over what it said was a "hit" on a UN peacekeeping position in Lebanon.

Two Sri Lankan peacekeepers were hurt in the second such incident in two days, UNIFIL said Friday.

Israel's military said soldiers had responded to "an immediate threat" around 50 metres (yards) from the UNIFIL base in Naqura, and has pledged to carry out a "thorough review".

The Irish military's chief of staff, Sean Clancy, said it was "not an accidental act", and French President Emmanuel Macron said he believed the peacekeepers had been "deliberately targeted".

Both countries are major contributors to UNIFIL whose peacekeepers are on the front line of the Israel-Hezbollah war.

Efforts to negotiate an end to the fighting have so far failed, but Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said his government would ask the UN Security Council to issue a new resolution calling for a "full and immediate ceasefire".

Lebanon's military said Friday an Israeli strike on one of its positions in south Lebanon killed two soldiers.

In a show of support for Iran's ally Hezbollah, the speaker of the Iranian parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf visited the site Saturday of a deadly Israeli strike earlier this week.

A source close to Hezbollah said the strike had targeted Hezbollah's security chief Wafiq Safa, but neither Hezbollah nor Israel has confirmed he was the target.

Ghalibaf's Lebanon visit, a signal of Tehran's defiance, comes after Israel vowed to respond to Iran's second-ever direct attack.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has vowed that the response will be "deadly, precise and surprising".

The United States is pushing for a "proportionate" response that would not tip the region into a wider war, with President Joe Biden urging Israel to avoid striking Iranian nuclear facilities or energy infrastructure.

 

- Gaza deaths -

 

Israeli operations in Gaza continue, with the army laying siege to an area around Jabalia in the north, causing more suffering for hundreds of thousands of people trapped there, according to the UN agency for Palestinian refugees.

Adraee, the Israeli military spokesman, posted another evacuation warning Saturday for an area near Jabalia.

"The specified area, including the shelters within it, is considered a dangerous combat zone," Adraee said on X, ordering residents to move to the humanitarian zone in southern Gaza.

Some residents said they were not prepared to do so.

"They tell us to go south, but we won't go because of the dangers and the army is shooting at people there," 27-year-old Sami Asliya told AFP.

"There is no safe place, neither in the south nor in the north -- everyone is at risk of death," he said.

On Friday, Gaza's civil defense agency reported 30 people killed in Israeli strikes in the area, including on schools being used as shelter by displaced people.

An AFP journalist in Gaza reported heavy shelling, explosions and gunfire Saturday further south in Gaza City's Zeitoun neighbourhood.