The Taiwan Strait: Crucial Waterway and Military Flashpoint

This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)
This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)
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The Taiwan Strait: Crucial Waterway and Military Flashpoint

This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)
This photo taken and released by the Taiwan Coast Guard on October 14, 2024 shows a Taiwan Coast Guard personnel using binoculars on a patrol ship off Pengjia Islet (Keelung) while pointing at a Chinese Coast Guard ship sailing in the distance outside Taiwan's territorial waters. (Handout / Taiwan Coast Guard /AFP)

China launched fighter jets and other aircraft over the Taiwan Strait on Monday as part of military drills aimed at sending a "warning" to the self-ruled island.

Here, AFP looks at the critical waterway and growing military flashpoint:

- Where is the Taiwan Strait? -

The strait separates the southeastern Chinese province of Fujian from the main island of Taiwan, home to around 23 million people.

At its narrowest point, just 130 kilometers (about 80 miles) of windswept water separates the two major landmasses, and several outlying Taiwanese islands -- including Kinmen and Matsu -- lie just a few kilometers from the Chinese coastline.

China and Taiwan have been governed separately since Mao Zedong's communist army won a civil war and sent the opposition nationalist forces fleeing across the strait in 1949.

- Why is it important? -

The strait is a critical artery for global shipping through which a huge volume of trade passes every day.

Around $2.45 trillion of goods -- more than a fifth of global maritime trade -- transited the strait in 2022, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

Taiwan plays an outsized role in the global economy thanks to producing over 90 percent of the world's most advanced computing chips, used in everything from smartphones to cutting-edge military equipment.

Analysts say a Chinese invasion would deal a catastrophic blow to these supply chains.

More minor disruptions, such as a blockade of the island, would cause costly shipping cancellations and diversions that would impact worldwide consumers.

"In the event of a long conflict over Taiwan, financial markets would tank, trade would shrivel, and supply chains would freeze, plunging the global economy into a tailspin," Robert A. Manning, a China expert at Washington's Stimson Center, wrote this year.

A report by the Rhodium Group estimated that a blockade of the island could cost firms dependent on Taiwan's chips $1.6 trillion in revenue annually.

An invasion would also endanger Taiwan's way of life, embodied by its democratic freedoms and boisterous elections.

It would also risk a wider conflict because the United States, while not recognizing Taiwan diplomatically, has an agreement to help the island defend itself.

- What has China announced? -

Beijing said that it had launched military exercises called "Joint Sword-2024B" in areas to the north, south and east of Taiwan.

The armed forces deployed fighter jets, bombers and warships in the strait, and also simulated a rocket strike, state media said.

The military also said it had deployed an aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, to "strike on maritime and ground targets in the waters and airspace to the east" of the island.

The coast guard said four fleets were conducting "inspections" around the Taiwanese mainland and disclosed other patrols near Matsu.

The drills "test the joint operations capabilities of the theater command's troops" while sending a "stern warning to the separatist acts of 'Taiwan Independence' forces", according to Chinese authorities.

Taiwan has condemned the actions as "irrational and provocative", and the US has called them "unwarranted".

- Has this happened before? -

In late May, three days after the inauguration of President Lai Ching-te, China launched Joint Sword-2024A, an apparent precursor to the latest drills.

The Chinese military also held three days of drills encircling Taiwan in April last year in response to Lai's predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, meeting with then US Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

And in 2022, Beijing launched over a week of maneuvers after McCarthy's predecessor, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taiwan.

Several major crises punctuated the preceding decades, most recently in 1995-6, when China conducted missile tests around Taiwan.

It is not yet clear how the drills announced on Monday compare in scale and intensity to those of previous years.



Hezbollah’s New Strategy: Gradual Escalation, Focus on Ground Combat

An image of Imad Mughniyeh raised alongside Hezbollah missile launchers during a military drill in southern Lebanon. File photo
An image of Imad Mughniyeh raised alongside Hezbollah missile launchers during a military drill in southern Lebanon. File photo
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Hezbollah’s New Strategy: Gradual Escalation, Focus on Ground Combat

An image of Imad Mughniyeh raised alongside Hezbollah missile launchers during a military drill in southern Lebanon. File photo
An image of Imad Mughniyeh raised alongside Hezbollah missile launchers during a military drill in southern Lebanon. File photo

Since suffering major setbacks on September 17, the day its communication systems were targeted, Hezbollah appears to have outlined a new military strategy for confronting Israel in a potential large-scale war.

The strategy focuses on gradually increasing missile strikes and targeting key sites, while giving priority to ground combat. Hezbollah is aiming to resist Israeli attacks, which have recently spread to south Lebanon’s western sector after a week of fighting in the eastern and central sectors.

In a statement on Tuesday, Hezbollah confirmed its missile forces are ready to strike any location in Israel as directed by its leadership.

The group warned that further Israeli aggression could lead to strikes on Haifa and beyond, making those areas as vulnerable as the border towns of Kiryat Sehmona and Metula. It also hinted that its attacks wouldn’t be limited to missiles and drones.

Hezbollah Preparing for a Long Fight

Military expert Brig. Gen. Hassan Jouni explained that Hezbollah’s current actions are part of an existing plan rather than a new strategy.

“This phase is about implementing plans that were already in place,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Hezbollah is now intensifying its missile use and choosing more significant targets, having delivered recent blows to Haifa.

On the battlefield, Jouni said Hezbollah’s approach is clear: resist Israeli advances and inflict losses.

He emphasized that the group’s goal isn’t to prevent an Israeli occupation but to make it unsustainable. Hezbollah’s defense of the front lines, he added, is aimed at lowering Israeli morale and taking advantage of key positions.

Jouni also highlighted comments by Hezbollah’s deputy leader, Sheikh Naim Qassem, who said a prolonged conflict would put Israel in a tough position, suggesting Hezbollah is prepared for a long fight and will gradually escalate its use of missiles.

Haifa for Beirut’s Southern Suburbs ‘Dahiyeh’

Brig. Gen. Munir Shehadeh, Lebanon’s former coordinator with UNIFIL, said Hezbollah is fighting with little left to lose after Israel’s assassination of its leaders and the destruction of its communities.

Shehadeh suggested that Hezbollah’s strategy would involve targeting areas beyond Haifa and Tel Aviv, already hitting residential areas in Haifa under the “Haifa for Dahiyeh” equation.

Hezbollah, Shehadeh explained, is relying on close-range combat to prove its resilience after severe blows that would normally lead to surrender.

Iran Holds the Key

Retired Brig. Gen. George Nader expressed doubts that any strategy could save Hezbollah after the losses of its leaders and large missile stockpiles. He argued that while Hezbollah may still be able to fight on the ground, it will struggle to withstand a large-scale Israeli invasion.

Nader also noted that if Hezbollah had the capability to strike strategic targets within Israel, it would have already done so. He said the decision to launch such attacks ultimately rests with Iran, not Hezbollah.