No one in Israel or Palestine expected the Israeli army to kill Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in what is described as an “accidental” strike, according to Israel’s account since Oct.7.
Israel officially announced Sinwar’s death in an strike on a house in Rafah, southern Gaza, just hours after the army began investigating whether he had been killed. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz called it a “major victory.”
Since Sinwar orchestrated Hamas’ “Al-Aqsa Flood” attack in October last year, he has become Israel’s top target.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi had vowed to kill him, using military and intelligence resources, along with US and Western support, to make his death a key war objective.
Turning Point
The war has reached a significant “turning point” with the killing of Sinwar, which may allow Israel to end the conflict. This development could also give Hamas more flexibility after losing its hardline leader, who has reshaped the group in recent years.
Before Israel confirmed Sinwar’s death, Gallant, Halevi, and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar visited the Gaza border for a security assessment. They also briefed US President Joe Biden about the situation.
Political analyst Mustafa Ibrahim told Asharq Al-Awsat that Sinwar’s assassination will have major impacts on future events.
A Hamas source described the news as a “shock.”
Following confirmation of Sinwar’s death, the source said Hamas leaders began discussions about their future, including the selection of a new leader, current confrontations, and ceasefire negotiations.
Sources familiar with Hamas’ decision-making suggest that Sinwar’s absence will shift control back to the leadership outside Gaza. This change could make negotiations for a ceasefire easier and quicker, which may align with Israeli interests.
Israeli public broadcaster Kan reported that urgent discussions occurred between the negotiation team and security officials following Sinwar’s killing.
Sinwar was among those released in the 2011 prisoner exchange between Hamas and Israel.
After his release, he quickly rose to power and was first elected head of Hamas in Gaza in 2017, succeeding Ismail Haniyeh, who then became the overall leader of the movement. Sinwar took over the leadership role in August.
Radical Control
One key change Sinwar made in Hamas was a “firmness of leadership,” according to a source close to the group. The source explained that Sinwar was a strong leader who made significant decisions about who would rise or fall within the organization.
He successfully pushed the military faction's agenda and took firm control of decision-making, even when communication with him became difficult for a time.
Most of Hamas’ leadership abroad, including members from Gaza and the West Bank, participated in crucial meetings and unanimously approved Sinwar as the leader without any competition.
Sinwar’s selection highlights the continued control of Gaza’s leadership within Hamas for the second consecutive term. This leadership, which includes Ismail Haniyeh and now Sinwar, has worked to align Hamas with the Iranian-led axis, according to analysts.
Comprehensive Review
A source close to Hamas told Asharq Al-Awsat that the movement has been significantly weakened by the loss of many of its hardline leaders. He suggested that Hamas is likely to conduct a thorough review of its policies, though a complete change is not guaranteed.
Regarding potential impacts, the source noted several key points: first, decision-making may shift back to leaders abroad, leading to significant changes; second, Hamas may have to make concessions that were difficult under Sinwar’s leadership, especially concerning the conflict, prisoner exchanges, and relations with the Palestinian Authority; and third, Hamas will seek to navigate current challenges, requiring extensive discussions.
The assassination of Sinwar is another setback for Hamas, which is already facing multiple difficulties.
