Impact of Sinwar’s Death on Hamas and the Gaza War

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in 2021 (AP)
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in 2021 (AP)
TT
20

Impact of Sinwar’s Death on Hamas and the Gaza War

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in 2021 (AP)
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in 2021 (AP)

No one in Israel or Palestine expected the Israeli army to kill Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in what is described as an “accidental” strike, according to Israel’s account since Oct.7.

Israel officially announced Sinwar’s death in an strike on a house in Rafah, southern Gaza, just hours after the army began investigating whether he had been killed. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz called it a “major victory.”

Since Sinwar orchestrated Hamas’ “Al-Aqsa Flood” attack in October last year, he has become Israel’s top target.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi had vowed to kill him, using military and intelligence resources, along with US and Western support, to make his death a key war objective.

Turning Point

The war has reached a significant “turning point” with the killing of Sinwar, which may allow Israel to end the conflict. This development could also give Hamas more flexibility after losing its hardline leader, who has reshaped the group in recent years.

Before Israel confirmed Sinwar’s death, Gallant, Halevi, and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar visited the Gaza border for a security assessment. They also briefed US President Joe Biden about the situation.

Political analyst Mustafa Ibrahim told Asharq Al-Awsat that Sinwar’s assassination will have major impacts on future events.

A Hamas source described the news as a “shock.”

Following confirmation of Sinwar’s death, the source said Hamas leaders began discussions about their future, including the selection of a new leader, current confrontations, and ceasefire negotiations.

Sources familiar with Hamas’ decision-making suggest that Sinwar’s absence will shift control back to the leadership outside Gaza. This change could make negotiations for a ceasefire easier and quicker, which may align with Israeli interests.

Israeli public broadcaster Kan reported that urgent discussions occurred between the negotiation team and security officials following Sinwar’s killing.

Sinwar was among those released in the 2011 prisoner exchange between Hamas and Israel.

After his release, he quickly rose to power and was first elected head of Hamas in Gaza in 2017, succeeding Ismail Haniyeh, who then became the overall leader of the movement. Sinwar took over the leadership role in August.

Radical Control

One key change Sinwar made in Hamas was a “firmness of leadership,” according to a source close to the group. The source explained that Sinwar was a strong leader who made significant decisions about who would rise or fall within the organization.

He successfully pushed the military faction's agenda and took firm control of decision-making, even when communication with him became difficult for a time.

Most of Hamas’ leadership abroad, including members from Gaza and the West Bank, participated in crucial meetings and unanimously approved Sinwar as the leader without any competition.

Sinwar’s selection highlights the continued control of Gaza’s leadership within Hamas for the second consecutive term. This leadership, which includes Ismail Haniyeh and now Sinwar, has worked to align Hamas with the Iranian-led axis, according to analysts.

Comprehensive Review

A source close to Hamas told Asharq Al-Awsat that the movement has been significantly weakened by the loss of many of its hardline leaders. He suggested that Hamas is likely to conduct a thorough review of its policies, though a complete change is not guaranteed.

Regarding potential impacts, the source noted several key points: first, decision-making may shift back to leaders abroad, leading to significant changes; second, Hamas may have to make concessions that were difficult under Sinwar’s leadership, especially concerning the conflict, prisoner exchanges, and relations with the Palestinian Authority; and third, Hamas will seek to navigate current challenges, requiring extensive discussions.

The assassination of Sinwar is another setback for Hamas, which is already facing multiple difficulties.



Syrians Return to Homs, ‘Capital of the Revolution’ 

A girl holds an independence-era Syrian flag out of the window of a bus carrying displaced Syrians returning home after years of displacement in the northern Aleppo province, at the entrance of the central city of Homs on February 10, 2025. (AFP)
A girl holds an independence-era Syrian flag out of the window of a bus carrying displaced Syrians returning home after years of displacement in the northern Aleppo province, at the entrance of the central city of Homs on February 10, 2025. (AFP)
TT
20

Syrians Return to Homs, ‘Capital of the Revolution’ 

A girl holds an independence-era Syrian flag out of the window of a bus carrying displaced Syrians returning home after years of displacement in the northern Aleppo province, at the entrance of the central city of Homs on February 10, 2025. (AFP)
A girl holds an independence-era Syrian flag out of the window of a bus carrying displaced Syrians returning home after years of displacement in the northern Aleppo province, at the entrance of the central city of Homs on February 10, 2025. (AFP)

Once dubbed the capital of the revolution against Bashar al-Assad, Homs saw some of the fiercest fighting in Syria's civil war. Now, displaced people are returning to their neighborhoods, only to find them in ruins.

It was in Homs that the opposition first took up arms to fight Assad's crackdown on peaceful protests in 2011.

The military responded by besieging and bombarding rebel areas such as Baba Amr, where US journalist Marie Colvin and French journalist Remi Ochlik were killed in a bombing in 2012.

Since Assad's ouster, people have started returning to neighborhoods they fled following successive evacuation agreements that saw Assad take back control.

"The house is burned down, there are no windows, no electricity," said Duaa Turki at her dilapidated home in Khaldiyeh neighborhood.

"We removed the rubble, laid a carpet" and moved in, said the 30-year-old mother of four.

"Despite the destruction, we're happy to be back. This is our neighborhood and our land."

Her husband spends his days looking for a job, she said, while they hope humanitarian workers begin distributing aid to help the family survive.

The siege of Homs lasted two years and killed around 2,200 people, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

During the siege, thousands of civilians and opposition fighters were left with nothing to eat but dried foods and grass.

In May 2014, under an evacuation deal negotiated with the former government, most of those trapped in the siege were evacuated, and two years later, Assad seized the last opposition district of Waer.

"We were besieged... without food or water, under air raids, and barrel bombings," before being evacuated to the opposition-held north, Turki said.

A boy walks past the debris of buildings in the Khaldiyeh district in Homs on February 10, 2025. (AFP)

- 'Precious soil of Homs' -

AFP journalists saw dozens of families returning to Homs from northern Syria, many of them tearful as they stepped out of the buses organized by local activists.

Among them was Adnan Abu al-Ezz, 50, whose son was wounded by shelling during the siege and who later died because soldiers at a checkpoint barred him from taking him to hospital.

"They refused to let me pass, they were mocking me," he said with tears in his eyes.

"I knew my house was nearly destroyed, but I came back to the precious soil of Homs," he said.

While protests and fighting spread across Syria over the course of the 13-year war, Homs's story of rebellion holds profound symbolism for the demonstrators.

It was there that Abdel Basset al-Sarout, a football goalkeeper in the national youth team, joined the protests and eventually took up arms.

He became something of a folk hero to many before he joined an armed group and was eventually killed in fighting.

In 2013, his story became the focus of a documentary by Syrian filmmaker Talal Derki named "The Return to Homs", which won international accolades.

Homs returnee Abu al-Moatasim, who remembers Sarout, recounted being detained for joining a protest.

When he saw security personnel approaching in a car, he prayed for "God to drop rocket on us so I die" before reaching the detention center, one of a network dotted around the country that were known for torture.

His father bribed an officer in exchange for his release a few days later, he said.

A vegetable vendor waits for customers in front of a damaged building in Homs on February 10, 2025. (AFP)

- 'Build a state' -

In Baba Amr, for a time early in the war a bastion of the opposition Free Syrian Army, there was rubble everywhere.

The army recaptured the district in March 2012, following a siege and an intense bombardment campaign.

It was there that Colvin and Ochlik were killed in a bombing of an opposition press center.

In 2019, a US court found Assad's government culpable in Colvin's death, ordering a $302.5 million judgement for what it called an "unconscionable" attack that targeted journalists.

Touring the building that housed the press center, Abdel Qader al-Anjari, 40, said he was an activist helping foreign journalists at that time.

"Here we installed the first internet router to communicate with the outside world," he said.

"Marie Colvin was martyred here, targeted by the regime because they did not want (anyone) to document what was happening," he said.

He described her as a "friend" who defied the "regime blackout imposed on journalists" and others documenting the war.

After leaving Homs, Anjari himself became an opposition fighter, and years later took part in the offensive that ousted Assad on December 8, 2024.

"Words cannot describe what I felt when I reached the outskirts of Homs," he said.

Now, he has decided to lay down his arms.

"This phase does not call for fighters, it calls for people to build a state," he said.