The Unsinkable Donald Trump

Republican presidential nominee, former US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on October 27, 2024 in New York City. (Getty Images/AFP)
Republican presidential nominee, former US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on October 27, 2024 in New York City. (Getty Images/AFP)
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The Unsinkable Donald Trump

Republican presidential nominee, former US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on October 27, 2024 in New York City. (Getty Images/AFP)
Republican presidential nominee, former US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on October 27, 2024 in New York City. (Getty Images/AFP)

He was impeached twice, found liable in fraud and sexual abuse lawsuits, convicted of dozens of felonies and has been declared politically dead again and again -- but count Donald Trump out at your peril.

With just over a week to go until his third presidential election -- and a little over three months after he was literally shot at -- the Republican tycoon's political stamina is as robust as ever.

The 78-year-old has emerged from a summer of missteps and a lurch into authoritarian rhetoric with better odds of securing a second White House term than at any point since that July assassination attempt in a field in Pennsylvania.

Trump detractors have watched the unforced errors in his 2024 campaign with a mix of delight, frustration and bewilderment as the man whose downfall has long been predicted has managed to keep his supporters on board.

Depending on who you ask, Trump's biggest fumbles have been a divisive vice-presidential pick, a laissez-faire attitude to his daily campaign work and an excessive focus on outgoing president Biden.

Trump's own words have, as ever, been extraordinary -- from wild conspiracy theories about immigrants eating people's pets and lies about hurricanes to authoritarian threats of revenge against his opponents.

- Secret sauce -

And then there's what Democrats have labelled the "weird" stuff -- the personal insults and name-calling, rambling interviews and rally speeches, and a campaign event that ended with Trump swaying onstage to music for 40 minutes.

The oldest major-party presidential candidate ever, Trump is out on bail in two criminal cases that could mean him seeing out his days in jail and in theory he is due to be sentenced in a third just after the election.

And yet the race remains a toss-up, with a trend line moving incrementally in Trump's favor that suggests he is weathering Democratic rival Kamala Harris's warnings that he is unfit for office.

For some analysts, Trump's secret sauce is his ability to play the part of the heroic outsider -- targeted by corrupt elites for his insurgent campaign to shake up politics on behalf of the forgotten millions.

Political consultant Andrew Koneschusky sees four planks to Trump's campaign -- an appeal to rudderless young men, exploitation of anger over inflation, the weaponization of race and gender and the scapegoating of immigrants.

"Trump's campaign strategy relies heavily on tapping into negative emotions, which typically register more strongly than positive ones," said the analyst, a former press secretary to Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer.

"In some cases, this is distasteful or revolting. For some voters it might also be effective."

- 'Avenging angel' -

Donald Nieman, a political analyst and professor at Binghamton University in New York state, believes Trump's unorthodox conduct -- the "rants, conspiracy theories, vulgarities, unvarnished racist and sexist attacks" -- thrill a base that sees Trump as their "avenging angel."

"Many others hold their noses and support him because they believe he will be better on issues they care about -- the economy, immigration, abortion," Nieman said.

Dubbed "Teflon Don" by US headline writers, Trump has a salesman's instinct for self-publicity, honed in his days as a brash 1980s New York developer trying to force his way into the celebrity gossip columns.

And while liberals and much of the media look at Trump's unorthodox, freewheeling style -- his rally speeches about windmills and fictional serial killers -- as disqualifying, his fans see authenticity.

Utah-based political analyst and PR expert Adrienne Uthe believes Trump and his base share an emotional connection missing in most political campaigns, as he taps into their patriotism, distrust of the media and fear of losing their culture.

"His supporters see him as a champion against what they perceive as a corrupt establishment. Despite controversies, Trump frames himself as a fighter, unyielding in the face of opposition," she told AFP.

"Many of his followers admire this resilience, viewing him as someone who defends their values and disrupts a political system they believe has ignored them for decades."



Iran’s Centrifuges: The Long Road Towards a Nuclear Bomb

This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)
This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)
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Iran’s Centrifuges: The Long Road Towards a Nuclear Bomb

This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)
This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)

The UN nuclear agency has confirmed that Iran plans to install around 6,000 new centrifuges to enrich uranium, according to a report seen by AFP on Friday.

“Iran informed the Agency that it intended to feed” around 6,000 centrifuges at its sites in Fordo and Natanz to enrich uranium to up to five percent, higher than the 3.67 percent limit Tehran had agreed to in 2015.

The Iranian decision came in response to a resolution adopted on November 21 by the UN nuclear watchdog that censures Tehran for what the agency called lack of cooperation.

On Thursday, Iran had threatened to end its ban on acquiring nuclear weapons if Western sanctions are reimposed.

The country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said in an interview that the nuclear debate inside Iran is likely to shift towards the possession of its own weapons if the west goes ahead with a threat to reimpose all UN sanctions,

What are centrifuges?

They are precise devices with cylinders that rotate much faster than the speed of sound, to collect enriched uranium atoms.

To explain how centrifugation works, rotating cylinders are much like medical laboratory equipment used to test blood.

The high rotation speeds exert a rotational force that separates the various components of blood as a function of their density and quantity in the sample.

In the case of uranium, the centrifuge operates using the familiar principle of centrifugal force. This force separates two gases of unequal masses in a spinning cylinder or tube. The heavier uranium-238 isotope collects at the outer edges of the cylinder while the lighter uranium-235 collects near the axis of rotation at the center.

Around 20 kg of uranium enriched to a 90% purity level would be needed for a single nuclear weapon. It would take about 1,500 SWU to produce a weapon-equivalent of 90 percent-enriched uranium from this enriched uranium.

At Fordo, Iran is currently using the two only operating cascades of IR-6 centrifuges there to enrich to 60% from 20%.

There are 1,044 centrifuges active at the Fordo uranium enrichment plant, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said.

He had earlier asked the Iran Atomic Energy Agency to begin inserting uranium gas into newly activated advanced centrifuges.

Early this month, a spokesperson for the US State Department said Iran's expansion of uranium enrichment activities in defiance of key nuclear commitments is "a big step in the wrong direction”.

His statement came after Tehran announced it would start injecting uranium gas into centrifuges at Fordo.

Dispute

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, signed in 2015 between Tehran and Western countries, says advanced centrifuges for uranium enrichment could operate until January 2027.

The difference between the first generation of centrifuges (IR-1) and the other generations is speed. The latest generation, IR-6, could enrich uranium up to 10 times faster than the first-generation IR-1, according to Iranian officials.

During the heyday of its nuclear program, Iran operated a total of 10,204 first-generation IR-1 centrifuges at the Natanz and Fordo facilities. But under the deal, Iran's commitments included operating no more than 5,060 IR-1 centrifuges for a period of 10 years.

Although the centrifuges that Iran installed before the 2015 nuclear deal were of the first generation, Tehran’s recent uranium enrichment activity at nuclear sites has reached disturbingly advanced levels, potentially increasing the nuclear proliferation risk.

Major centrifuge activities in Iran

May 2008: Iran installed several centrifuges including more modern models.

March 2012: Iranian media announced 3,000 centrifuges at Natanz.

August 2012: The International Atomic Energy Agency announced that Iran had installed large parts of the centrifuges at Fordo.

November 2012: An IAEA report confirmed that all advanced centrifuges had been installed at Fordo, although there were only four working centrifuges, and another four fully equipped, vacuum tested, and ready to go.

February 2013: IAEA says Iran has operated 12,699 IR-1 centrifuges at the Natanz site.

June 2018: Iran’s supreme leader revealed Tuesday that it ultimately wants 190,000 nuclear centrifuges — a figure 30 times higher than world powers allowed under the 2015 deal.

September 2019: Iran mounted 22 IR-4, one IR-5, 30 IR-6, and three IR-6 for testing, outside the treaty boundaries.

September 2019: Iran announced it started operating advanced and fast centrifuges to enrich uranium.

November 2024: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announces that his country will operate several thousand advanced centrifuges.

November 2024: Iranian state television broadcasts AEOI Chief Mohammad Eslami announcing that “gasification of a few thousands of new generation centrifuges has been started.”