Kamala Harris: Can Underestimated Trailblazer Beat Trump?

 US Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris steps off Air Force Two at Joint Base in Maryland on October 27, 2024. (AFP)
US Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris steps off Air Force Two at Joint Base in Maryland on October 27, 2024. (AFP)
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Kamala Harris: Can Underestimated Trailblazer Beat Trump?

 US Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris steps off Air Force Two at Joint Base in Maryland on October 27, 2024. (AFP)
US Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris steps off Air Force Two at Joint Base in Maryland on October 27, 2024. (AFP)

The call that upended everything for Kamala Harris came on a Sunday morning in July as the US vice president did a jigsaw puzzle at home with her grand-nieces.

"The phone rings, and it´s Joe," Harris told radio host Howard Stern recently. "I got up to take the call -- and then life changed."

President Joe Biden's revelation that he was going to drop out of the 2024 White House race and endorse Harris as the Democratic nominee triggered one of the most remarkable transformations in American politics.

Harris was previously saddled with record low approval ratings for a "veep."

Within a few short weeks she created an election campaign out of nothing. She held rapturous rallies, raised more than $1 billion in funds and brought what she called a burst of joy to a party that had given up hope.

But with the now polls showing the 60-year-old in a dead heat with Republican former president Donald Trump, Harris is in the fight of her life to win on November 5 and become the first female president in US history.

"It's not easy. Usually people run for president for two years, and she's just been running since late July," David Karol, who teaches government and politics at the University of Maryland, told AFP.

- Difficult debut -

Harris was a trailblazer from the moment she entered the White House as America's first female, Black and South Asian vice president.

Yet the trail proved difficult at first. Harris faced withering criticism that she was not up to the job of being a heartbeat from the presidency.

Already criticized for vagueness on policy during a failed presidential run against Biden in 2019, she increasingly became notorious -- like Biden himself -- for "word salads."

Tasked by Biden with getting to the roots of the country´s illegal migration problem, Harris fumbled and granted Republicans an attack line about being a failed "border czar" that they use to this day.

But things began to change in 2022. Harris found her voice when the US Supreme Court overturned the federal right to abortion.

She rallied around the country on the issue and took on an increasingly prominent role in Biden´s second presidential campaign -- with officials privately admitting she was gearing up for her own presidential run in 2028.

Biden also increasingly tasked her with diplomatic missions on Ukraine and the Middle East.

But few dreamed that the moment for her to take a tilt at the White House would come so soon.

Partly that was because Harris had long been underestimated, by some Democrats and by Republicans alike.

Trump would soon find that the woman he called "crazy" and subjected to sexist and racist taunts was a force to be reckoned with. In their only debate she gained the upper hand by taunting the former president.

- 'Momala' -

Harris, however has deliberately steered away from overtly leaning into her race or her gender during the campaign.

When she does talk about her personal background it has largely been about her Indian-born mother who raised her and her sister alone -- while her Jamaican-born father rarely gets a mention.

Or there's her very public affection for "Second Gentleman" Doug Emhoff.

Famously his children Cole and Emma, who are now her stepchildren, dubbed her "Momala."

She has also used their relationship to call out Trump's running mate J.D. Vance for previously describing top Democrats as "childless cat ladies."

But it is more common to hear her focus on her professional history as a prosecutor and then as California attorney general -- and contrasting herself with Trump, who's bidding to become the first convicted felon in the Oval Office.

Harris has also repeatedly brought up the fact that's she's a gun owner, as she reaches out to Republican voters.

Yet there have also been familiar weaknesses. She remains uncomfortable with the media, and her failure to sit for any interviews for several weeks mid-campaign drew Republican fire.

The question now is whether she can put the puzzle together and shatter America's highest glass ceiling.

"I think she has run a good campaign. And if she loses, some people will say 'oh, that's because she didn't run a good campaign' -- and I think that's wrong," said Karol.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.