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Asharq Al-Awsat Uncovers New Details on Sinwar’s Movements During the Gaza Conflict

Yahya Sinwar 
Yahya Sinwar 
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Asharq Al-Awsat Uncovers New Details on Sinwar’s Movements During the Gaza Conflict

Yahya Sinwar 
Yahya Sinwar 

Reliable information from Asharq Al-Awsat sources within and close to Hamas reveals that Israel nearly captured the group's leader, Yahya Sinwar, at least five times before he was killed during a routine military operation in Rafah, southern Gaza, last month.

The sources described Sinwar's movements and those with him during the ongoing conflict in Gaza, which has lasted over a year. They noted that Sinwar sent a message to his family about the death of his nephew, Ibrahim Muhammad Sinwar, who was with him.

This message arrived two days after Sinwar was also killed.

Khan Younis Operation

During the Israeli military operation in Khan Younis in January, it was believed that Sinwar was hiding in one of the tunnels.

After entering several tunnels, Israeli forces found recordings from cameras showing Sinwar moving around and transferring supplies into a tunnel with his family just hours before the attack on Oct. 7, 2023, as well as on the day of the attack.

Despite this, Israel could not locate him in the tunnels or above ground. As the operation expanded, Sinwar had to find a safe place for his wife and children away from him due to the ongoing pursuit, according to reliable sources for Asharq Al-Awsat.

Sources report that Sinwar’s wife and children were safe, receiving written messages from him at least once a month.

As military operations intensified in Khan Younis, Sinwar chose to stay in the area, often separating from his brother Muhammad and Raef Salameh, the regional brigade commander who was killed in a July airstrike alongside Muhammad Deif, the leader of Hamas’s military wing.

They occasionally met in safe houses or tunnels since the conflict began.

The sources noted that the four did not remain together at all times; they spent hours or days together before parting based on the situation.

A closely guarded secret reveals that Israeli forces were just meters away from a house where Sinwar was hiding in Block G of Khan Younis, accompanied only by his personal bodyguard.

Sinwar was armed and ready for a potential Israeli raid.

However, the movements of Hamas fighters from house to house, as they demolished walls for street fighting, revealed Sinwar’s location.

He was quickly evacuated through gaps created by the fighters in neighboring homes and taken to a safe house about one kilometer away.

He was later moved to another location where he met his brother Muhammad and Salameh before they all separated as the Israeli operation expanded near the Nasser Medical Complex.

Sources say that in February, under pressure from his brother and Salameh, as well as Hamas fighters, Sinwar was forced to leave Khan Younis for Rafah. By then, Israeli forces had almost complete control over Khan Younis and had effectively tightened their siege.

However, Sinwar was safely transported to Rafah through coordinated movements above and below ground.

Sources indicate that the person who stayed with Sinwar throughout the conflict was Ibrahim Muhammad Sinwar, the son of his brother Muhammad, a senior Hamas leader.

Both Yahya and Muhammad named their firstborn sons after each other.

Ibrahim was killed in an Israeli airstrike in August while exiting a tunnel to monitor Israeli movements in Rafah, southern Gaza, alongside his uncle.

Sinwar sent a message to his brother’s family explaining the circumstances of Ibrahim’s death and detailing where he was buried in an underground tunnel, stating that he had personally prayed over his body.

The family received this message two days after Sinwar’s own death, indicating that it took more than two months for it to reach them.

The timing of the message, arriving just after Sinwar’s death, highlights the challenging security conditions he faced amid ongoing Israeli pursuit.

It also reflects the extreme precautions he took to avoid leaving any gaps that could lead Israel to him, which helps explain the circumstances of his “accidental” death.

Sources reveal that Sinwar stayed in Rafah for several months, moving between different areas, particularly in the western part since late May. He used both underground and above-ground shelters.

During his time away from his brother Muhammad, as well as Deif and Salameh, Sinwar communicated with them through written messages, following specific security protocols he defined.

This method also applied to his communications with Hamas leaders locally and abroad, especially regarding ceasefire negotiations and potential prisoner exchanges.

Sinwar was reportedly in tunnels in Rafah, including one where six prisoners were killed. It is believed he may have ordered their execution as Israeli forces advanced in late September.

Before his death, Sinwar and his companions experienced severe food shortages, going three days without eating while preparing for an Israeli confrontation. They moved between damaged buildings in the area.

In the final two weeks, attempts were made by Mahmoud Hamdan, the commander of the Tel Sultan brigade, who was killed the day after Sinwar, to extract him from the area. However, these efforts failed due to heavy military activity.

Sources indicate that Israeli forces came close to Sinwar’s location at least five times, including three times above ground and two underground.

Each time, he was moved to different locations despite wanting to remain with the fighting forces.

When asked if Sinwar’s presence in Rafah was related to assessing the Philadelphia corridor, sources denied this.

However, individuals close to Hamas suggested that he may have been considering a potential Israeli withdrawal from the corridor and its implications for prisoner exchange negotiations and the situation on the ground.

In related news, Hamas has issued a statement denying reports regarding the fate of Deif, the leader of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades.

Earlier, Asharq Al-Awsat reported new indications of Deif’s death in an Israeli airstrike in Khan Younis in July. Despite these reports, Hamas officials continue to assert that Deif is alive, while Israeli officials claim he has been killed.

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Here’s What to Watch as Election Day Approaches in the US

People cast their ballots on the last day of early voting for the general election in Michigan at the Livingston Educational Service Agency in Howell, Michigan on November 3, 2024. (AFP)
People cast their ballots on the last day of early voting for the general election in Michigan at the Livingston Educational Service Agency in Howell, Michigan on November 3, 2024. (AFP)
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Here’s What to Watch as Election Day Approaches in the US

People cast their ballots on the last day of early voting for the general election in Michigan at the Livingston Educational Service Agency in Howell, Michigan on November 3, 2024. (AFP)
People cast their ballots on the last day of early voting for the general election in Michigan at the Livingston Educational Service Agency in Howell, Michigan on November 3, 2024. (AFP)

Election Day is nearly upon us. In a matter of hours, the final votes in the 2024 presidential election will be cast.

In a deeply divided nation, the election is a true toss-up between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump.

We know there are seven battleground states that will decide the outcome, barring a major surprise. But major questions persist about the timing of the results, the makeup of the electorate, the influx of misinformation — even the possibility of political violence. At the same time, both sides are prepared for a protracted legal battle that could complicate things further.

Here's what to watch on the eve of Election Day 2024:

History will be made either way

Given all the twists and turns in recent months, it's easy to overlook the historical significance of this election.

Harris would become the first female president in the United States' 248-year history. She would also be the first Black woman and person of South Asian descent to hold the office. Harris and her campaign have largely played down gender and race fearing that they might alienate some supporters. But the significance of a Harris win would not be lost on historians.

A Trump victory would represent a different kind of historical accomplishment. He would become the first person convicted of a felony elected to the US presidency, having been convicted of 34 felony counts in a New York hush-money case little more than five months ago.

Trump, who is still facing felony charges in at least two separate criminal cases, argued that he is the victim of a politicized justice system. And tens of millions of voters apparently believe him — or they're willing to overlook his extraordinary legal baggage.

US Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally at Michigan State University's Jenison Field House in East Lansing, Michigan, on November 3, 2024. (AFP)

How long will it take to know the winner? Election Day in the United States is now often considered election week as each state follows its own rules and practices for counting ballots — not to mention the legal challenges — that can delay the results. But the truth is, nobody knows how long it will take for the winner to be announced this time.

In 2020, The Associated Press declared President Joe Biden the winner on Saturday afternoon — four days after polls closed. But even then, The AP called North Carolina for Trump 10 days after Election Day and Georgia for Biden 16 days later after hand recounts.

Four years earlier, the 2016 election was decided just hours after most polls closed. The AP declared Trump the winner on election night at 2:29 a.m. (it was technically Wednesday morning on the East Coast).

This time, both campaigns believe the race is extremely close across the seven swing states that are expected to decide the election, barring a major surprise: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The size of the map and the tightness of the race make it hard to predict when a winner could be declared.

Where can I find early clues about how the contest might unfold? Look to two East Coast battleground states, North Carolina and Georgia, where the results could come in relatively quickly. That doesn't mean we'll get the final results in those states quickly if the returns are close, but they are the first swing states that might offer a sense of what kind of night we're in for.

To go deeper, look to urban and suburban areas in the industrial North and Southeast, where Democrats have made gains since 2020.

In North Carolina, Harris’ margins in Wake and Mecklenburg Counties, home to the state capital of Raleigh and the state’s largest city, Charlotte, respectively, will reveal how much Trump will need to squeeze out of the less-populated rural areas he has dominated.

In Pennsylvania, Harris needs heavy turnout in deep blue Philadelphia, but she's also looking to boost the Democrats’ advantage in the arc of suburban counties to the north and west of the city. She has campaigned aggressively in Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery counties, where Biden improved on Clinton’s 2016 winning margins. The Philadelphia metro area, including the four collar counties, accounts for 43 percent of Pennsylvania’s vote.

Elsewhere in the Blue Wall, Trump needs to blunt Democratic growth in Michigan's key suburban counties outside of Detroit, especially Oakland County. He faces the same challenge in Wisconsin's Waukesha County outside of Milwaukee.

Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump pumps his fist after speaking at the end of a campaign rally at Atrium Health Amphitheater in Macon, Georgia, on November 3, 2024. (AFP)

Where are the candidates? Trump will likely spend the very early hours of Election Day in Michigan, where he is scheduled to hold a final late-night rally in Grand Rapids as has become his tradition.

The Republican candidate plans to spend the rest of the day in Florida, where he is expected to vote in person -- despite previously saying he would vote early. He's scheduled to hold a campaign watch party in Palm Beach Tuesday night.

Harris plans to attend an Election Night party at Howard University in Washington, a historically Black university where she graduated with a degree in economics and political science in 1986 and was an active member of Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority.

Aside from Howard, she has no public schedule announced for Election Day.

Harris said Sunday that she had “just filled out” her mail-in ballot and it was “on its way to California.”

Who's left to show up on Election Day? On the eve of Election Day, it's unclear which voters will show up to cast ballots on Tuesday.

More than 77 million people participated in early voting — either in person or through the mail. So many people already cast ballots that some officials say the polls in states like Georgia might be a “ghost town” on Election Day.

One major reason for the surge is that that Trump has generally encouraged his supporters to vote early this time, a reversal from 2020 when he called on Republicans to vote only in-person on Election Day. The early vote numbers confirm that millions of Republicans have heeded Trump's call in recent weeks.

The key question, however, is whether the surge of Republicans who voted early this time will ultimately cannibalize the number of Republicans who show up on Tuesday.

There are also shifts on the Democratic side. Four years ago, as the pandemic lingered, Democrats overwhelmingly cast their ballots early. But this time around, without the public health risk, it's likely that more Democrats will show up in person on Election Day.

That balance on both sides is critical as we try to understand the early returns. And it's on the campaigns to know which voters they still need to turn out on Tuesday. On that front, Democrats may have an advantage.

Trump's campaign and the Republican National Committee have outsourced much of their get-out-the-vote operation to outside groups, including one funded largely by billionaire Trump ally Elon Musk that’s facing new questions about its practices. Harris’ campaign, by contrast, is running a more traditional operation that features more than 2,500 paid staffers and 357 offices in battleground states alone.

Chocolate bars with the faces of Democratic presidential nominee US Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential nominee and former US President Donald Trump are displayed at a store in John F. Kennedy International Airport, New York, US, October 25, 2024. (Reuters)

Could there be unrest? Trump has been aggressively promoting baseless claims in recent days questioning the integrity of the election. He falsely insists that he can lose only if Democrats cheat, even as polls show that show the race is a true toss-up.

Trump could again claim victory on election night regardless of the results, just as he did in 2020.

Such rhetoric can have serious consequences as the nation saw when Trump loyalists stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 in one of the darkest days in modern American history. And unfortunately, there is still a potential of further violence this election season.

The Republican National Committee will have thousands of “election integrity” poll monitors in place on Tuesday searching for any signs of fraud, which critics fear could lead to harassment of voters or election workers. In some key voting places, officials have requested the presence of sheriff deputies in addition to bulletproof glass and panic buttons that connect poll managers to a local 911 dispatcher.

At the same time, Trump allies note that he has faced two assassination attempts in recent months that raise the possibility of further threats against him. And police in Washington and other cities are preparing for the possibility of serious Election Day unrest.

As always, it's worth noting that a broad coalition of top government and industry officials, many of them Republicans, found that the 2020 election was the “most secure” in American history.”