Asharq Al-Awsat Uncovers New Details on Sinwar’s Movements During the Gaza Conflict

Yahya Sinwar 
Yahya Sinwar 
TT

Asharq Al-Awsat Uncovers New Details on Sinwar’s Movements During the Gaza Conflict

Yahya Sinwar 
Yahya Sinwar 

Reliable information from Asharq Al-Awsat sources within and close to Hamas reveals that Israel nearly captured the group's leader, Yahya Sinwar, at least five times before he was killed during a routine military operation in Rafah, southern Gaza, last month.

The sources described Sinwar's movements and those with him during the ongoing conflict in Gaza, which has lasted over a year. They noted that Sinwar sent a message to his family about the death of his nephew, Ibrahim Muhammad Sinwar, who was with him.

This message arrived two days after Sinwar was also killed.

Khan Younis Operation

During the Israeli military operation in Khan Younis in January, it was believed that Sinwar was hiding in one of the tunnels.

After entering several tunnels, Israeli forces found recordings from cameras showing Sinwar moving around and transferring supplies into a tunnel with his family just hours before the attack on Oct. 7, 2023, as well as on the day of the attack.

Despite this, Israel could not locate him in the tunnels or above ground. As the operation expanded, Sinwar had to find a safe place for his wife and children away from him due to the ongoing pursuit, according to reliable sources for Asharq Al-Awsat.

Sources report that Sinwar’s wife and children were safe, receiving written messages from him at least once a month.

As military operations intensified in Khan Younis, Sinwar chose to stay in the area, often separating from his brother Muhammad and Raef Salameh, the regional brigade commander who was killed in a July airstrike alongside Muhammad Deif, the leader of Hamas’s military wing.

They occasionally met in safe houses or tunnels since the conflict began.

The sources noted that the four did not remain together at all times; they spent hours or days together before parting based on the situation.

A closely guarded secret reveals that Israeli forces were just meters away from a house where Sinwar was hiding in Block G of Khan Younis, accompanied only by his personal bodyguard.

Sinwar was armed and ready for a potential Israeli raid.

However, the movements of Hamas fighters from house to house, as they demolished walls for street fighting, revealed Sinwar’s location.

He was quickly evacuated through gaps created by the fighters in neighboring homes and taken to a safe house about one kilometer away.

He was later moved to another location where he met his brother Muhammad and Salameh before they all separated as the Israeli operation expanded near the Nasser Medical Complex.

Sources say that in February, under pressure from his brother and Salameh, as well as Hamas fighters, Sinwar was forced to leave Khan Younis for Rafah. By then, Israeli forces had almost complete control over Khan Younis and had effectively tightened their siege.

However, Sinwar was safely transported to Rafah through coordinated movements above and below ground.

Sources indicate that the person who stayed with Sinwar throughout the conflict was Ibrahim Muhammad Sinwar, the son of his brother Muhammad, a senior Hamas leader.

Both Yahya and Muhammad named their firstborn sons after each other.

Ibrahim was killed in an Israeli airstrike in August while exiting a tunnel to monitor Israeli movements in Rafah, southern Gaza, alongside his uncle.

Sinwar sent a message to his brother’s family explaining the circumstances of Ibrahim’s death and detailing where he was buried in an underground tunnel, stating that he had personally prayed over his body.

The family received this message two days after Sinwar’s own death, indicating that it took more than two months for it to reach them.

The timing of the message, arriving just after Sinwar’s death, highlights the challenging security conditions he faced amid ongoing Israeli pursuit.

It also reflects the extreme precautions he took to avoid leaving any gaps that could lead Israel to him, which helps explain the circumstances of his “accidental” death.

Sources reveal that Sinwar stayed in Rafah for several months, moving between different areas, particularly in the western part since late May. He used both underground and above-ground shelters.

During his time away from his brother Muhammad, as well as Deif and Salameh, Sinwar communicated with them through written messages, following specific security protocols he defined.

This method also applied to his communications with Hamas leaders locally and abroad, especially regarding ceasefire negotiations and potential prisoner exchanges.

Sinwar was reportedly in tunnels in Rafah, including one where six prisoners were killed. It is believed he may have ordered their execution as Israeli forces advanced in late September.

Before his death, Sinwar and his companions experienced severe food shortages, going three days without eating while preparing for an Israeli confrontation. They moved between damaged buildings in the area.

In the final two weeks, attempts were made by Mahmoud Hamdan, the commander of the Tel Sultan brigade, who was killed the day after Sinwar, to extract him from the area. However, these efforts failed due to heavy military activity.

Sources indicate that Israeli forces came close to Sinwar’s location at least five times, including three times above ground and two underground.

Each time, he was moved to different locations despite wanting to remain with the fighting forces.

When asked if Sinwar’s presence in Rafah was related to assessing the Philadelphia corridor, sources denied this.

However, individuals close to Hamas suggested that he may have been considering a potential Israeli withdrawal from the corridor and its implications for prisoner exchange negotiations and the situation on the ground.

In related news, Hamas has issued a statement denying reports regarding the fate of Deif, the leader of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades.

Earlier, Asharq Al-Awsat reported new indications of Deif’s death in an Israeli airstrike in Khan Younis in July. Despite these reports, Hamas officials continue to assert that Deif is alive, while Israeli officials claim he has been killed.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
TT

What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.