COP29: What Is the Latest Science on Climate Change?

A flare burns off excess gas from a gas plant in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 21, 2019. (Reuters)
A flare burns off excess gas from a gas plant in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 21, 2019. (Reuters)
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COP29: What Is the Latest Science on Climate Change?

A flare burns off excess gas from a gas plant in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 21, 2019. (Reuters)
A flare burns off excess gas from a gas plant in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 21, 2019. (Reuters)

This year's UN climate summit - COP29 - is being held during yet another record-breaking year of higher global temperatures, adding pressure to negotiations aimed at curbing climate change.

The last global scientific consensus on climate change was released in 2021 through the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, however scientists say that evidence shows global warming and its impacts are unfolding faster than expected.

Here is some of the latest climate research:

1.5C BREACHED?

The world may already have hit 1.5 degree Celsius (2.7 F) of warming above the average pre-industrial temperature - a critical threshold beyond which it is at risk of irreversible and extreme climate change, scientists say.

A group of researchers made the suggestion in a study released on Monday based on an analysis of 2,000 years of atmospheric gases trapped in Antarctic ice cores that extends the understanding of pre-industrial temperature trends.

Scientists have typically measured today's temperatures against a baseline temperature average for 1850-1900. By that measure, the world is now at nearly 1.3 C (2.4 F) of warming.

But the new data suggests a longer pre-industrial baseline, based on temperature data spanning the year 13 to 1700, the study published in the journal Nature Geoscience said.

Either way, 2024 is certain to be the warmest year on record.

SUPERCHARGED HURRICANES

Not only is ocean warming fueling stronger Atlantic storms, it is also causing them to intensify more rapidly, for example, jumping from a Category 1 to a Category 3 storm in just hours.

Growing evidence shows this is true of other ocean basins.

Hurricane Milton needed only one day in the Gulf of Mexico in October to go from tropical storm to the Gulf's second-most powerful hurricane on record, slamming Florida's west coast.

Warmer air can also hold more moisture, helping storms carry and eventually release more rain. As a result, hurricanes are delivering flooding even in mountain towns like Asheville, North Carolina, inundated in September by Hurricane Helene.

WILDFIRE DEATHS

Global warming is drying waterways and sapping moisture from forests, creating conditions for bigger and hotter wildfires from the US West and Canada to southern Europe and Russia's Far East creating more damaging smoke.

Research published last month in Nature Climate Change calculated that about 13% of deaths associated with toxic wildfire smoke, roughly 12,000 deaths, during the 2010s could be attributed to the climate effect on wildfires.

CORAL BLEACHING

With the world in the throes of a fourth mass coral bleaching event — the largest on record — scientists fear the world's reefs have passed a point of no return.

Scientists will be studying bleached reefs from Australia to Brazil for signs of recovery over the next few years if temperatures fall.

AMAZON ALARM

Brazil's Amazon is in the grips of its worst and most widespread drought since records began in 1950. River levels sank to all-time lows this year, while fires ravaged the rainforest.

This adds concern to scientific findings earlier this year that between 10% and 47% of the Amazon will face combined stresses of heat and drought from climate change, as well as other threats, by 2050.

This could push the Amazon past a tipping point, with the jungle no longer able to produce enough moisture to quench its own trees, at which point the ecosystem could transition to degraded forests or sandy savannas.

Globally, forests appear to be struggling.

A July study found that forests overall last year failed to absorb as much carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as in the past, due largely to the Amazon drought and wildfires in Canada.

That means a record amount of CO2 entered the atmosphere.

VOLCANIC SURGE

Scientists fear climate change could even boost volcanic eruptions.

In Iceland, volcanoes appear to be responding to rapid glacier retreat. As ice melts, less pressure is exerted on the Earth's crust and mantle.

Volcanologists worry this could destabilize magma reservoirs and appears to be leading to more magma being created, building up pressure underground.

Some 245 volcanoes across the world lie under or near ice and could be at risk.

OCEAN SLOWDOWN

The warming of the Atlantic could hasten the collapse of a key current system, which scientists warn could already be sputtering.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which transports warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic, has helped to keep European winters milder for centuries.

Research in 2018 showed that AMOC has weakened by about 15% since 1950, while research published in February in the journal Science Advances, suggested that it could be closer to a critical slowdown than previously thought.



Nuclear Neighbors India and Pakistan are a Step Closer To War. Here’s a Timeline of How It Happened

An Indian police personnel stands outside a house that was damaged by Pakistani artillery shelling in Jammu on May 10, 2025. (Photo by Rakesh BAKSHI / AFP)
An Indian police personnel stands outside a house that was damaged by Pakistani artillery shelling in Jammu on May 10, 2025. (Photo by Rakesh BAKSHI / AFP)
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Nuclear Neighbors India and Pakistan are a Step Closer To War. Here’s a Timeline of How It Happened

An Indian police personnel stands outside a house that was damaged by Pakistani artillery shelling in Jammu on May 10, 2025. (Photo by Rakesh BAKSHI / AFP)
An Indian police personnel stands outside a house that was damaged by Pakistani artillery shelling in Jammu on May 10, 2025. (Photo by Rakesh BAKSHI / AFP)

A gun massacre of tourists on April 22 has pushed India and Pakistan a step closer to war, marking the biggest breakdown in relations since 2019.
Conflict between India and Pakistan is not rare, with the two countries having periodically engaged in wars, clashes and skirmishes since gaining independence from British India in 1947.
What’s different about this escalation is the frequency and intensity of strikes and retaliation.
Although the US had said it would not step in, it is now offering assistance in “starting constructive talks” between India and Pakistan to avoid future conflicts. But calls for restraint from the international community have yet to make an impact.
Here’s a timeline of how the latest conflict has unfolded:
April 22 Gunmen shoot and kill at least 26 tourists at a Pahalgam resort in Indian-controlled Kashmir, a major shift in a regional conflict that has largely spared civilians. The unidentified gunmen also wound 17 other people. A group called Kashmir Resistance, which India accuses Pakistan of backing, claims the attack.
Survivors tell The Associated Press that gunmen asked people if they were Hindu and then opened fire.
April 23 India downgrades diplomatic ties, closes the only functional land border crossing, and suspends a crucial water-sharing treaty that has survived two wars and a major border skirmish between the two countries.
India launches a manhunt for the Pahalgam assailants. Pakistan denies involvement with the attack.
April 24 India and Pakistan cancel visas for each other’s nationals, setting a deadline for them to leave. In retaliation, Pakistan shuts its airspace for all Indian-owned or Indian-operated airlines, and suspends all trade with India, including to and from any third country.
Government ministers on both sides hint the dispute could escalate to military action.
April 25 India says its troops exchanged fire with Pakistani soldiers at the Line of Control, the de facto border dividing the disputed Kashmir region.
Pakistan warns it could suspend an agreement that established the Line of Control, in what would be a major and worrying step. The United Nations urges both sides to “exercise maximum restraint.”
April 26 Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif vows his government will respond “with full force and might” to Indian attempts to stop or divert the flow of water.
Iran offers mediation, while Trump says he expects them to work out their differences. “There’s great tension between Pakistan and India, but there always has been,” he tells reporters aboard Air Force One.
April 30 Authorities in Indian-controlled Kashmir temporarily close dozens of resorts in the scenic Himalayan region after the deadly attack on tourists.
Troops from both countries exchange fire over the Line of Control for a fifth consecutive night.
Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar says his government has “credible intelligence” that India intends to carry out military action against Pakistan in the next 24 to 36 hours.
May 1 US Secretary of State Marco Rubio calls senior officials in India and Pakistan in an effort to defuse the crisis. US State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce says Rubio in his call with India expressed sorrow over the killings in Pahalgam and reaffirmed the US’s “commitment to cooperation with India against terrorism."
Pakistan says Rubio emphasized the need for both sides to “continue working together for peace and stability” in South Asia.
May 3 Pakistan test-fires a ballistic missile with a range of 450 kilometers (about 280 miles). Missiles are not fired toward the border area with India; they are normally fired into the Arabian Sea or the deserts of the southwest Balochistan province.
India suspends the exchange of all mail from Pakistan through air and surface routes and bans the direct and indirect import of goods from its neighbor. It also bars Pakistani-flagged ships from entering its ports and prohibits Indian-flagged vessels from visiting Pakistani ports.
May 7 India fires missiles on Pakistan, which calls the strikes an “act of war” and vows to avenge those who died in the pre-dawn attack.
The missiles kill 31 people, including women and children, in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and the country’s Punjab province. The strikes targeted at least nine sites “where terrorist attacks against India have been planned,” says India’s Defense Ministry.
Pakistan claims it downed several Indian fighter jets.
May 8 India fires attack drones into Pakistan, killing at least two civilians, the Pakistani military says. India, meanwhile, accuses its neighbor of attempting its own attack and acknowledges targeting its archrival’s air defense system.
India evacuates thousands of people from villages near the highly militarized frontier in the Kashmir region. Flights remain suspended at over two dozen airports across northern and western regions of India.
Pakistan's Punjab province announces the immediate closure of all schools and other educational institutions.
May 9 India suspends its biggest domestic cricket tournament for a week following the escalating military tensions with Pakistan. Pakistan initially says it will move its own domestic T20 tournament to the United Arab Emirates because of the crisis, but then says it will only postpone matches.
Several northern and western Indian states shut schools and other educational institutions.
US Vice President JD Vance says a potential war between India and Pakistan would be “none of our business.”
India's army says drones have been sighted in 26 locations across many areas in Indian states bordering Pakistan and Indian-controlled Kashmir, including the main city of Srinagar. The drones were tracked and engaged, it adds.
The Group of Seven nations, or G7, urge “maximum restraint” from both India and Pakistan, warning that further military escalation poses a serious threat to regional stability.
May 10 Pakistan says India has fired missiles at air bases inside the country and that retaliatory strikes are underway. The Indian missiles targeted Nur Khan air base in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, near the capital Islamabad, Murid air base in Chakwal city, and Rafiqui air base in the Jhang district of eastern Punjab province, according to the Pakistani army's chief spokesperson.
Pakistan says it has fired missiles at Indian military positions.
Residents in Indian-controlled Kashmir report hearing loud explosions at multiple places in the region, including Srinagar, Jammu, and the garrison town of Udhampur.