The ground battles between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon remain intense, with no end in sight for the coming weeks. The arrival of winter will bring weather changes that could slow down operations. but won't stop the fighting.
Experts say that while winter weather, especially rain and fog, can make it harder for fighters and vehicles to move, it has a limited impact on the overall conflict. Air operations, which rely on advanced technology, are less affected.
The region’s mild winter conditions, unlike harsher winters in other countries, will not be a decisive factor in the battle.
Retired General Abdul Rahman Shheitly believes that modern military equipment is designed to work in any weather.
However, he told Asharq Al-Awsat that fog and rain can give both sides an advantage by obscuring visibility, making it harder to spot each other.
This benefits the attacking side, Israel, which has superior technology, while Hezbollah’s movements could be hindered by muddy terrain.
Shheitly also noted that weather affects displaced civilians, which could put pressure on political negotiations to end the conflict.
Retired General Hassan Jouni, former deputy chief of staff of operations in the Lebanese Armed Forces, argued that weather conditions affect the attacker more than the defender. Since Hezbollah is defending its ground, it is less impacted by the cold and rain.
The weather only slightly affects vehicle movement, and does not stop the fighting.
Jouni noted that the region doesn’t experience severe winter weather, so air operations will be unaffected by rain or cold. Modern drones, missiles, and aircraft are designed to function in such conditions, with GPS ensuring precise targeting.
Both Hezbollah and Israel rely heavily on drones. Hezbollah’s drones are noted for their accuracy and ability to avoid Israel’s Iron Dome defense, while Israel uses drones for surveillance and targeted strikes.
More than a year has passed since the conflict began after Hezbollah opened its "support front” for Hamas on October 8, 2023. The fighting, mostly limited to airstrikes during the winter of 2023, escalated with Israel’s ground operation a month ago, though its full goals remain unclear.
As the ground battles continue, Israel seems focused on creating a buffer zone in the South rather than occupying towns. Israel has destroyed over 37 villages to achieve this goal.
The next steps remain uncertain.
Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi has stated that the military is preparing for further ground operations in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah remains determined to hold its ground and prevent Israeli advances.
