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How Will the ‘Battle for Damascus’ Resonate in Beirut and Baghdad?

A Syrian anti government fighter poses for a picture in front of one of the water wheels, or norias, of Hama, after forces captured of the city of Hama on December 6, 2024. (Photo by OMAR HAJ KADOUR / AFP)
A Syrian anti government fighter poses for a picture in front of one of the water wheels, or norias, of Hama, after forces captured of the city of Hama on December 6, 2024. (Photo by OMAR HAJ KADOUR / AFP)
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How Will the ‘Battle for Damascus’ Resonate in Beirut and Baghdad?

A Syrian anti government fighter poses for a picture in front of one of the water wheels, or norias, of Hama, after forces captured of the city of Hama on December 6, 2024. (Photo by OMAR HAJ KADOUR / AFP)
A Syrian anti government fighter poses for a picture in front of one of the water wheels, or norias, of Hama, after forces captured of the city of Hama on December 6, 2024. (Photo by OMAR HAJ KADOUR / AFP)

The chances of the Syrian conflict turning into an open and possibly long-lasting war between competing regional powers are growing, following a sudden shift in the balance of power.

For years, foreign forces have been drawn to Syria, using their military strength to support President Bashar al-Assad’s government.

The conflict reached its height after 2011 when Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and allied Iraqi factions, backed by Russia, joined the civil war. At the same time, the United States stationed troops in Syria to fight ISIS.

Later, key international players agreed to a political deal to reduce tensions, known as the “Astana Process.” However, Iran kept its military presence to secure the supply route between Tehran and Beirut, while the US set up military bases in northeastern Syria.

Roots of 2011

Response: When the Syrian uprising began in 2011, before it turned into a civil war, Türkiye was uncertain about its political and military options. The Turkish National Security Council spent weeks in May 2011 reviewing reports on the "Syrian crisis" from Hakan Fidan, then head of intelligence and now foreign minister.

Two years later, Türkiye saw Iran's Revolutionary Guard, Hezbollah, and Iraqi militias taking positions in Syria. Meanwhile, Türkiye focused on countering Kurdish forces in northern Syria with support from Arab allies. It also hosted millions of refugees, creating both an economic burden and political tensions at home between the ruling AKP and opposition CHP.

Extremist Groups: ISIS and other extremist groups expanded across Syria and Iraq, prompting a range of forces to join the fight. These included the US-led coalition, Kurdish factions, Iran’s Popular Mobilization Forces, the Revolutionary Guard, and the Syrian army.

Russian Role: Russia entered the Syrian conflict at a time when it was not yet focused on the war in Ukraine. It took control of Syria's coastline, strengthened its presence in the Middle East, and deepened its alliance with President Bashar al-Assad.

Syria’s ‘Al-Aqsa Flood’

Tehran and Moscow: After the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon, Iran found itself unable to act. When Syrian armed factions launched a rapid advance beyond Aleppo and Idlib, Iran did not respond clearly. Meanwhile, Russia was too focused on the war in Ukraine to intervene.

Turkish Timing: Türkiye made its move clear, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stating just days ago that the situation in Syria is "managed calmly," showing Türkiye’s intentions to act ahead of others towards Damascus.

Syrian Factions’ Organization: The opposition groups fighting against both Assad and Iran showed increasing organization last week. While their leaders are linked to radical movements, the groups have so far avoided war crimes, maintaining discipline. It remains to be seen if this continues.

Syrian Army: The Syrian army’s retreat was notable as cities fell, including those after Aleppo. This could indicate a political decision to avoid fighting, weakening any political solution, or that the army is too weak and disorganized to protect the cities.

Battle for Damascus

“Iran’s options are now limited,” says an Iraqi political advisor who recently visited Washington and heard “new” views on Syria.

“Tehran has no bargaining power left, which makes it more dangerous if it decides to act with no political leverage,” the advisor warned.

Historically, Iran has never allowed Assad’s fall. However, sending forces now to support Assad would mean declaring war on Türkiye, especially with Russian hesitation and US indifference.

In Baghdad and Beirut, risks are growing as factions advance toward southern Syria, reaching the town of Qusayr and heading toward Damascus.

Iraqi faction leaders say, “Baghdad is tightening the pressure for the first time in years,” but “the religious and ideological factors won’t be easy to manage” if Syria’s minority groups or Shiite shrines in Damascus are threatened.

This depends heavily on the actions of the Syrian factions.

They acknowledge that moving now is difficult due to limited time, resources, and supply lines. However, retaliation could soon start in Beirut and Baghdad.

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10 Years after Europe's Migration Crisis, the Fallout Reverberates in Greece and Beyond

File photo: Migrants of African origin trying to flee to Europe are crammed on board of a small boat, as Tunisian coast guards prepare to transfer them onto their vessel, at sea between Tunisia and Italy, on August 10, 2023. (Photo by FETHI BELAID / AFP)
File photo: Migrants of African origin trying to flee to Europe are crammed on board of a small boat, as Tunisian coast guards prepare to transfer them onto their vessel, at sea between Tunisia and Italy, on August 10, 2023. (Photo by FETHI BELAID / AFP)
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10 Years after Europe's Migration Crisis, the Fallout Reverberates in Greece and Beyond

File photo: Migrants of African origin trying to flee to Europe are crammed on board of a small boat, as Tunisian coast guards prepare to transfer them onto their vessel, at sea between Tunisia and Italy, on August 10, 2023. (Photo by FETHI BELAID / AFP)
File photo: Migrants of African origin trying to flee to Europe are crammed on board of a small boat, as Tunisian coast guards prepare to transfer them onto their vessel, at sea between Tunisia and Italy, on August 10, 2023. (Photo by FETHI BELAID / AFP)

Fleeing Iran with her husband and toddler, Amena Namjoyan reached a rocky beach of this eastern Greek island along with hundreds of thousands of others. For months, their arrival overwhelmed Lesbos. Boats fell apart, fishermen dove to save people from drowning, and local grandmothers bottle-fed newly arrived babies.

Namjoyan spent months in an overcrowded camp. She learned Greek. She struggled with illness and depression as her marriage collapsed. She tried to make a fresh start in Germany but eventually returned to Lesbos, the island that first embraced her. Today, she works at a restaurant, preparing Iranian dishes that locals devour, even if they struggle to pronounce the names. Her second child tells her, “‘I’m Greek.’”

“Greece is close to my culture, and I feel good here,” Namjoyan said. “I am proud of myself.”

In 2015, more than 1 million migrants and refugees arrived in Europe — the majority by sea, landing in Lesbos, where the north shore is just 10 kilometers (6 miles) from Türkiye. The influx of men, women and children fleeing war and poverty sparked a humanitarian crisis that shook the European Union to its core. A decade later, the fallout still reverberates on the island and beyond.

For many, Greece was a place of transit. They continued on to northern and western Europe. Many who applied for asylum were granted international protection; thousands became European citizens. Countless more were rejected, languishing for years in migrant camps or living in the streets. Some returned to their home countries. Others were kicked out of the European Union.

For Namjoyan, Lesbos is a welcoming place — many islanders share a refugee ancestry, and it helps that she speaks their language. But migration policy in Greece, like much of Europe, has shifted toward deterrence in the decade since the crisis. Far fewer people are arriving illegally. Officials and politicians have maintained that strong borders are needed. Critics say enforcement has gone too far and violates fundamental EU rights and values.

“Migration is now at the top of the political agenda, which it didn’t use to be before 2015,” said Camille Le Coz Director of the Migration Policy Institute Europe, noting changing EU alliances. “We are seeing a shift toward the right of the political spectrum.”

A humanitarian crisis turned into a political one

In 2015, boat after boat crowded with refugees crashed onto the doorstep of Elpiniki Laoumi, who runs a fish tavern across from a Lesbos beach. She fed them, gave them water, made meals for aid organizations.

“You would look at them and think of them as your own children," said Laoumi, whose tavern walls today are decorated with thank-you notes.

From 2015 to 2016, the peak of the migration crisis, more than 1 million people entered Europe through Greece alone. The immediate humanitarian crisis — to feed, shelter and care for so many people at once — grew into a long-term political one.

Greece was reeling from a crippling economic crisis. The influx added to anger against established political parties, fueling the rise of once-fringe populist forces.

EU nations fought over sharing responsibility for asylum seekers. The bloc’s unity cracked as some member states flatly refused to take migrants. Anti-migration voices calling for closed borders became louder.

Today, illegal migration is down across Europe While illegal migration to Greece has fluctuated, numbers are nowhere near 2015-16 figures, according to the International Organization for Migration. Smugglers adapted to heightened surveillance, shifting to more dangerous routes.

Overall, irregular EU border crossings decreased by nearly 40% last year and continue to fall, according to EU border and coast guard agency Frontex.

That hasn’t stopped politicians from focusing on — and sometimes fearmongering over — migration. This month, the Dutch government collapsed after a populist far-right lawmaker withdrew his party’s ministers over migration policy.

In Greece, the new far-right migration minister has threatened rejected asylum seekers with jail time.

A few miles from where Namjoyan now lives, in a forest of pine and olive trees, is a new EU-funded migrant center. It's one of the largest in Greece and can house up to 5,000 people.

Greek officials denied an Associated Press request to visit. Its opening is blocked, for now, by court challenges.

Some locals say the remote location seems deliberate — to keep migrants out of sight and out of mind.

“We don’t believe such massive facilities are needed here. And the location is the worst possible – deep inside a forest,” said Panagiotis Christofas, mayor of Lesbos’ capital, Mytilene. “We’re against it, and I believe that’s the prevailing sentiment in our community.”

A focus on border security

For most of Europe, migration efforts focus on border security and surveillance.

The European Commission this year greenlighted the creation of “return” hubs — a euphemism for deportation centers — for rejected asylum seekers. Italy has sent unwanted migrants to its centers in Albania, even as that faces legal challenges.

Governments have resumed building walls and boosting surveillance in ways unseen since the Cold War.

In 2015, Frontex was a small administrative office in Warsaw. Now, it's the EU's biggest agency, with 10,000 armed border guards, helicopters, drones and an annual budget of over 1 billion euros.

On other issues of migration — reception, asylum and integration, for example — EU nations are largely divided.

The legacy of Lesbos

Last year, EU nations approved a migration and asylum pact laying out common rules for the bloc's 27 countries on screening, asylum, detention and deportation of people trying to enter without authorization, among other things.

“The Lesbos crisis of 2015 was, in a way, the birth certificate of the European migration and asylum policy,” Margaritis Schinas, a former European Commission vice president and a chief pact architect, told AP.

He said that after years of fruitless negotiations, he's proud of the landmark compromise.

“We didn’t have a system,” Schinas said. “Europe’s gates had been crashed."

The deal, endorsed by the United Nations refugee agency, takes effect next year. Critics say it made concessions to hardliners. Human rights organizations say it will increase detention and erode the right to seek asylum.

Some organizations also criticize the “externalization” of EU border management — agreements with countries across the Mediterranean to aggressively patrol their coasts and hold migrants back in exchange for financial assistance.

The deals have expanded, from Türkiye to the Middle East and across Africa. Human rights groups say autocratic governments are pocketing billions and often subject the displaced to appalling conditions.

Lesbos still sees some migrants arrive Lesbos' 80,000 residents look back at the 2015 crisis with mixed feelings.

Fisherman Stratos Valamios saved some children. Others drowned just beyond his reach, their bodies still warm as he carried them to shore.

“What’s changed from back then to now, 10 years on? Nothing,” he said. “What I feel is anger — that such things can happen, that babies can drown.”

Those who died crossing to Lesbos are buried in two cemeteries, their graves marked as “unknown.”

Tiny shoes and empty juice boxes with faded Turkish labels can still be found on the northern coast. So can black doughnut-shaped inner tubes, given by smugglers as crude life preservers for children. At Moria, a refugee camp destroyed by fire in 2020, children’s drawings remain on gutted building walls.

Migrants still arrive, and sometimes die, on these shores. Lesbos began to adapt to a quieter, more measured flow of newcomers.

Efi Latsoudi, who runs a network helping migrants learn Greek and find jobs, hopes Lesbos’ tradition of helping outsiders in need will outlast national policies.

“The way things are developing, it’s not friendly for newcomers to integrate into Greek society,” Latsoudi said. "We need to do something. ... I believe there is hope.”