Should Lebanon Fear the ‘New Syria’?

People wait with their belongings at the Al-Masnaa crossing as they prepare to return to Syria, on the Lebanese-Syrian border, Lebanon, 11 December 2024. (EPA)
People wait with their belongings at the Al-Masnaa crossing as they prepare to return to Syria, on the Lebanese-Syrian border, Lebanon, 11 December 2024. (EPA)
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Should Lebanon Fear the ‘New Syria’?

People wait with their belongings at the Al-Masnaa crossing as they prepare to return to Syria, on the Lebanese-Syrian border, Lebanon, 11 December 2024. (EPA)
People wait with their belongings at the Al-Masnaa crossing as they prepare to return to Syria, on the Lebanese-Syrian border, Lebanon, 11 December 2024. (EPA)

Celebration may have swept Lebanon over the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria given its decades of brutal hegemony over its smaller neighbor, but some Lebanese officials have warned of imminent dangers should extremists assume rule in Damascus.

Head of the Free Patriotic Movement MP Gebran Bassil spoke of an “existential concern among all segments that fear the Islamist groups that are now in control in Syria.”

He questioned the assurances from the groups, recalling how they had occupied some eastern Lebanese regions in recent years, which could force Lebanon into taking a defensive position.

Bassil and others fear a repeat of the 2014 attacks by ISIS and the Al-Nusra Front against the eastern Lebanese border. The groups had attacked the border town of Arsal, killing soldiers and civilians, and occupying regions across the border with Syria.

Lebanese security agencies have intensified measures along the border to prevent a reoccurrence of such an attack, which seems pressing given the presence of hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees throughout Lebanon.

FPM deputy leader Dr. Naji Hayek stressed that as long as the Syrians “don’t meddle in the affairs of our country, then they are free to choose what they want.”

He told Asharq Al-Awsat: “We wish the Syrian people well and hope the new regime will meet the aspirations of the people, who alone can shape the form of their government.”

“Our one fear is meddling in Lebanon’s affairs,” he added.

He hoped democracy would prevail in Syria, warning against totalitarianism. “We did not agree on the form of the previous regime and hope the new one will be better,” he remarked.

Member of the Strong Republic bloc MP Ghada Ayoub said she was not surprised with Bassil’s comments, saying that the regime in Syria was not the only thing that fell, “but so have the masks of Lebanese officials, including Bassil, who were banking on the survival of this regime.”

Bassil lost an ally in Assad and an integral part of the “Axis of Resistance”, which the FPM struck an understanding with in 2006 that allowed then FPM leader Michel Aoun to become president of Lebanon, she told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The Strong Republic bloc positively views the change in Syria, she stressed, saying the former regime was “hostile to Lebanon for 50 years.”

“It believed that Lebanon should be annexed to Syria and that decisions should be taken from Damascus, not Beirut. We mustn't forget all the wars it waged in Lebanon and against the Lebanese people, as well as the crimes, assassinations and arrests that it carried out,” she went on to say.

“The Assad regime also allowed Syria to become a passage for Iranian militias that meddled with Lebanon’s fate and allowed Iran to seize control of Lebanon,” Ayoub added.

“So, a new phase has started in Syria with the collapse of the regime. We must congratulate the Syrian people on their newfound freedom,” she stressed.

“Lebanon wants to build normal relations with Syria based on respect for each other’s sovereignty, away from Assad’s old slogan of ‘one people in two countries’,” she stated.

Islamist movements and terrorist affairs expert Ahmed al-Ayyoubi said Lebanon has nothing to fear from the “new Syria.”

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the extremist threat comes from the remaining ISIS cells, which the ousted regime and Iran sought to exploit and that they may exploit against the alliance of revolutionaries in Damascus.

He said that Damascus’ new rulers have obstacles to overcome, but extremism is not one of them.

He stressed the need to always focus on preserving freedoms and building a just civilian state.

Moreover, Ayyoubi explained that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was not the sole component of the victorious factions in Syria. Rather, they are formed of various diverse groups that will be represented in the expected transitional council.

Furthermore, he noted that Iran has sought to pin the label of terrorism on Sunni groups to present itself and its militias as a leader of an anti-terrorism axis.

The reality is far from the truth, Ayyoubi added, saying that the Assad regime “was harboring the most extremist and terrorist groups, and they are Hezbollah and the Shiite militias that are aligned with Iran.”

On December 6, two days before the ouster of the regime, the armed Syrian factions addressed the Lebanese people to reassure them that they were hoping to establish “diplomatic ties with them that achieve mutual interests.”



What to Know About the Flash Floods in Texas That Killed over 100 People

 Firefighters from Ciudad Acuña, Mexico, transport a recovered body on the flooded Guadalupe River days after a flash flood swept through the area, Monday, July 7, 2025, in Ingram, Texas. (AP)
Firefighters from Ciudad Acuña, Mexico, transport a recovered body on the flooded Guadalupe River days after a flash flood swept through the area, Monday, July 7, 2025, in Ingram, Texas. (AP)
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What to Know About the Flash Floods in Texas That Killed over 100 People

 Firefighters from Ciudad Acuña, Mexico, transport a recovered body on the flooded Guadalupe River days after a flash flood swept through the area, Monday, July 7, 2025, in Ingram, Texas. (AP)
Firefighters from Ciudad Acuña, Mexico, transport a recovered body on the flooded Guadalupe River days after a flash flood swept through the area, Monday, July 7, 2025, in Ingram, Texas. (AP)

Flash floods in Texas killed at least 100 people over the Fourth of July holiday weekend and left others still missing, including girls attending a summer camp. The devastation along the Guadalupe River, outside of San Antonio, has drawn a massive search effort as officials face questions over their preparedness and the speed of their initial actions.

Here's what to know about the deadly flooding, the colossal weather system that drove it in and around Kerr County, Texas, and ongoing efforts to identify victims.

Massive rain hit at just the wrong time, in a flood-prone place

The floods grew to their worst at the midpoint of a long holiday weekend when many people were asleep.

The Texas Hill Country in the central part of the state is naturally prone to flash flooding due to the dry dirt-packed areas where the soil lets rain skid along the surface of the landscape instead of soaking it up. Friday's flash floods started with a particularly bad storm that dropped most of its 12 inches (30 centimeters) of rain in the dark early morning hours.

After a flood watch notice midday Thursday, the National Weather Service office issued an urgent warning around 4 a.m. that raised the potential of catastrophic damage and a severe threat to human life. By at least 5:20 a.m., some in the Kerrville City area say water levels were getting alarmingly high. The massive rain flowing down hills sent rushing water into the Guadalupe River, causing it to rise 26 feet (8 meters) in just 45 minutes.

Death toll is expected to rise and the number of missing is uncertain

In Kerr County, home to youth camps in the Texas Hill Country, searchers have found the bodies of 75 people, including 27 children, Sheriff Larry Leitha said Monday morning. Fatalities in nearby counties brought the total number of deaths to 94 as of Monday afternoon.

Ten girls and a counselor were still unaccounted for at Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp along the river.

For past campers, the tragedy turned happy memories into grief.

Beyond the Camp Mystic campers unaccounted for, the number of missing from other nearby campgrounds and across the region had not been released.

Gov. Greg Abbott on Sunday had said that there were 41 people confirmed to be unaccounted for across the state and more could be missing.

Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice said during a Monday news conference he couldn't give an estimate of the number of people still missing, only saying “it is a lot.”

Officials face scrutiny over flash flood warnings

Survivors have described the floods as a “pitch black wall of death” and said they received no emergency warnings.

Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, who lives along the Guadalupe River, said Saturday that “nobody saw this coming.” Officials have referred to it as a “100-year-flood,” meaning that the water levels were highly unlikely based on the historical record.

And records behind those statistics don’t always account for human-caused climate change. Though it’s hard to connect specific storms to a warming planet so soon after they occur, meteorologists say that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture and allow severe storms to dump even more rain.

Additionally, officials have come under scrutiny about why residents and youth summer camps along the river were not alerted sooner than 4 a.m. or told to evacuate.

Rice said Monday that he did not immediately know if there had been any communication between law enforcement and the summer camps between 1 a.m. and 4 a.m. on Friday. But Rice said various factors, including spotty cell service in some of the more isolated areas of Kerr County and cell towers that might have gone out of service during the weather, could have hindered communication.

Rice said officials want to finish the search and rescue and then review possible issues with cell towers, radios and emergency alerts.

Officials noted that the public can grow weary from too many flooding alerts or forecasts that turn out to be minor.

Kerr county officials said they had presented a proposal for a more robust flood warning system, similar to a tornado warning system, but that members of the public reeled at the cost.

Monumental clearing and rebuilding effort

The flash floods have erased campgrounds and torn homes from their foundations.

"It’s going to be a long time before we’re ever able to clean it up, much less rebuild it," Kelly said Saturday after surveying the destruction from a helicopter.

Other massive flooding events have driven residents and business owners to give up, including in areas struck last year by Hurricane Helene.

President Donald Trump said he would likely visit the flood zone on Friday.

AP photographers have captured the scale of the destruction, and one of Texas' largest rescue and recovery efforts.