Here’s What Happens Next During the Ceasefire in Gaza

Palestinian former inmates of the Ofer military prison are welcomed upon arriving to Ramallah after being released as part of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, in the West Bank city of Ramallah, 25 January 2025. (EPA)
Palestinian former inmates of the Ofer military prison are welcomed upon arriving to Ramallah after being released as part of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, in the West Bank city of Ramallah, 25 January 2025. (EPA)
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Here’s What Happens Next During the Ceasefire in Gaza

Palestinian former inmates of the Ofer military prison are welcomed upon arriving to Ramallah after being released as part of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, in the West Bank city of Ramallah, 25 January 2025. (EPA)
Palestinian former inmates of the Ofer military prison are welcomed upon arriving to Ramallah after being released as part of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, in the West Bank city of Ramallah, 25 January 2025. (EPA)

The first week of the latest ceasefire between Israel and the Hamas group is complete. Hamas has begun to release hostages and Israel has freed nearly 300 Palestinian prisoners.

But the deal has hit its first major complication. Israel on Saturday said a female civilian hostage named Arbel Yahoud was supposed to be released and it has delayed the planned return of hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza.

Here’s a look at what’s ahead in the five remaining weeks of the ceasefire's first phase.

What’s happened so far

This is the second ceasefire in 15 months of the deadliest and most destructive war between Israel and Hamas, which controls Gaza. The first occurred over a year ago and lasted a week. The current ceasefire is longer and holds the potential to end the war, though the steps toward that are vastly more challenging than what’s unfolding now. The mediators are Qatar, Egypt and the United States.

Early this week, the first three Israeli hostages held in Gaza were released and the first 90 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel were released several hours later. On Saturday, another four hostages and 200 Palestinian prisoners were released.

Meanwhile, Israeli forces have pulled back to buffer zones inside Gaza, fighting has stopped, hundreds of trucks carrying humanitarian aid have entered the territory and many Palestinians displaced by the war have been returning to what remains of their homes and communities.

What’s next

Saturday was Day 7 of the ceasefire. Starting on Day 14, next Saturday, three hostages should be released every seven days in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners.

By the end of the 42 days, all living women, children and older people held by the fighters should be freed. Eventually, bodies of hostages might be included in the releases, as Israel believes at least a third of the more than 90 captives still inside Gaza were killed in the Oct. 7, 2023 attack that triggered the war or have died in captivity.

By Sunday, Israel was meant to allow Palestinians to return to badly hit northern Gaza. But Israel now says Palestinians will not be able to cross north through the Netzarim corridor that bisects the territory east to west because Yahoud had not been freed.

The deal called for the release of civilian women on Saturday and soldiers were freed instead. It was not immediately clear why Yahoud was not released.

Hamas said it held Israel responsible for “any delay in implementing the agreement and its repercussions.”

A senior Hamas official said the group told mediators that Yahoud will be released next week. An Egyptian official involved in negotiations called the matter a “minor issue” that mediators were working to resolve. Both spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

Already, hundreds of anxious Palestinians were gathering and waiting to cross into northern Gaza, which like much of the rest of the territory has been largely destroyed.

One Palestinian was shot and killed near the Netzarim corridor on Saturday, according to Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir al-Balah. Israel's military didn't immediately comment.

After the first six weeks

In the ceasefire’s second phase, all remaining hostages are to be released in return for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a “sustainable calm.” Talks about Phase 2 are set to begin on Day 16, Feb. 3.

But a lot remains to be discussed. Israel has said that after the ceasefire's first phase, it will decide how to proceed.

Israel has said it won’t agree to a complete withdrawal from Gaza until Hamas’ military and political capabilities are eliminated. Hamas says it will not hand over the last hostages until Israel removes all troops from the territory.

Both sides will have to agree to a plan for governing Gaza. Hamas has said it would be willing to step aside, but it may still seek a hand in any future government, which Israel has rejected. And Hamas is unlikely to give up its weapons.

If all sides reach the third phase, it is likely to be less contentious. The bodies of remaining hostages would be returned in exchange for a three- to five-year reconstruction plan in Gaza, but who will pay for it remains unclear.



A Week Into the Fragile Israel-Iran Peace Agreement, Here's What We Still Don't Know

People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
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A Week Into the Fragile Israel-Iran Peace Agreement, Here's What We Still Don't Know

People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

It's been a week since the United States pressed Israel and Iran into a truce, ending a bloody, 12-day conflict that had set the Middle East and globe on edge.

The fragile peace, brokered by the US the day after it dropped 30,000-pound "bunker-busting" bombs on three of Iran's key nuclear sites, is holding. But much remains unsettled, The Associated Press reported.

How badly Iran’s nuclear program was set back remains murky. The prospects of renewed US-Iran peace talks are up in the air. And whether US President Donald Trump can leverage the moment to get Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 's government and Hamas focused on a ceasefire and hostage deal that brings about an end to the 20-month war in Gaza remains an open question.

Here is a look at what we still don't know:

How far Iran's nuclear program has been set back Trump says three targets hit by American strikes were “obliterated.” His defense secretary said they were “destroyed.”

A preliminary report issued by the US Defense Intelligence Agency, meanwhile, said the strikes did significant damage to the Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan sites, but did not totally destroy the facilities.

Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday that the three Iranian sites with “capabilities in terms of treatment, conversion and enrichment of uranium have been destroyed to an important degree.” But, he added, “some is still standing” and that because capabilities remain, “if they so wish, they will be able to start doing this again.” He said assessing the full damage comes down to Iran allowing inspectors access.

What future US-Iran relations might look like

After the ceasefire deal came together, Trump spoke of potentially easing decades of biting sanctions on Tehran and predicted that Iran could become a “great trading nation” if it pulled back once-and-for-all from its nuclear program.

The talk of harmony didn't last long.

Ali Khamenei, in his first public appearance after the ceasefire was announced, claimed Tehran had delivered a “slap to America’s face." Trump responded by suggesting the supreme leader own up to the fact Iran “got beat to hell. The president also said he was backing off reviewing any immediate sanction relief, because of Khamenei's heated comments.

White House officials say the US and Iran are already in early discussions about resuming negotiations that had ended after Israel began launching strikes. But Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says there's no agreement in place to restart talks.

It's unclear if Iran's leadership is ready to come to the table so soon after the fighting has ended — especially if Trump holds to the position that Iran must give up nuclear enrichment for even civilian use. And Trump has offered conflicting statements about his commitment to talks. “We may sign an agreement,” he said Wednesday at a NATO summit press conference. He added, “I don’t think it’s that necessary.”

What role Iran's supreme leader will play

Khamenei's age and recent diminished appearance have raised questions about the scope of his involvement in US-Iran relations and Iran's response to both American and Israeli strikes. But despite having spent the last few weeks in a bunker as threats to his life escalated, there is little indication that Khamenei does not still reign supreme over the country's massive military and governmental operations.

Khamenei has ruled three times longer than his predecessor, the late Ruhollah Khomeini, and has shaped life for the country's more than 90 million people perhaps even more dramatically.

He entrenched the system of rule by the “mullahs,” or Shiite Muslim clerics. That secured his place in the eyes of hard-liners as the unquestionable authority, below only that of God. At the same time, Khamenei built the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard into the dominant force in Iran’s military and internal politics.

How Iran might strike back Iran's retaliatory missile attacks on a US base in Qatar following the American bombardment were sloughed off by the White House as a half-hearted, face-saving measure. The US was forewarned and the salvos were easily fended off.

Yet Iran remains a persistent threat, particularly via cyberwarfare. Hackers backing Tehran have already targeted US banks, defense contractors and oil industry companies — but so far have not caused widespread disruptions to critical infrastructure or the economy.

The US Department of Homeland Security last week issued a public bulletin warning of increased Iranian cyber threats. And the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, is urging organizations that operate critical infrastructure like water systems, pipelines or power plants to stay vigilant.

Whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold It remains a fragile peace.

Immediately following the US strikes, Trump got on the phone with Netanyahu and told the Israeli leader not to expect further US offensive military action, according to a senior White House official who was not authorized to comment publicly about the sensitive diplomatic talks.

But even as he agreed to deal, Netanyahu made clear that Israel will strike again “if anyone in Iran tries to revive this project.”

The ceasefire deal came without any agreement from Tehran on dismantling its nuclear program. Khamenei claims the attacks “did nothing significant” to Iran's nuclear facilities.

Trump expressed confidence that Iran, at the moment, has no interest in getting its nuclear program back up. “The last thing they’re thinking about right now is enriched uranium,” Trump said.

Still, Trump says he expects Iran to open itself to international inspection to verify that it doesn’t restart its nuclear program by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN nuclear watchdog, or some other organization "that we respect, including ourselves.”

Whether Trump can now press Netanyahu on Gaza

The president took a big gamble with his decision to order strikes on Iran's nuclear fortress.

As a candidate, he promised to quickly end Russia's brutal war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, but has failed to find a resolution to either. He also vowed to keep the US military out of foreign conflicts.

But after helping Israel with US strikes on Iran, Trump — in conversations with Netanyahu and other world leaders in recent days — has made clear he wants a deal completed soon, according to two people familiar with the private discussions and were not authorized to comment publicly.

On Friday, Trump told reporters, “We think within the next week we’re going to get a ceasefire.”

Trump didn't offer any further explanation for his optimism. But Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer is expected to be in Washington this week for talks on a Gaza ceasefire, Iran and other matters, according to an official familiar with the matter. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.