Marwan Hamadeh to Asharq Al-Awsat: Rifaat Assad Mocked His Brother, Called for Partition of Lebanon, Syria

Marwan Hamadeh speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat. (Aasharq Al-Awsat)
Marwan Hamadeh speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat. (Aasharq Al-Awsat)
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Marwan Hamadeh to Asharq Al-Awsat: Rifaat Assad Mocked His Brother, Called for Partition of Lebanon, Syria

Marwan Hamadeh speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat. (Aasharq Al-Awsat)
Marwan Hamadeh speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat. (Aasharq Al-Awsat)

Hafez al-Assad did not settle for ruling Syria with an iron grip—he also sought to control Lebanon, and he got his way.

Throughout the 1980s, there was frequent talk of a second power center in Syria, represented by Rifaat al-Assad, the president’s brother and rival.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, former Lebanese lawmaker and minister Marwan Hamadeh recounts how Rifaat advocated for dividing Syria and Lebanon into sectarian mini-states and shifting alliances from the Soviet Union to the United States and Israel.

“Rifaat was ultimately exiled, but he remained untouchable. They let him leave, taking with him a trove of secrets and betrayals—betrayals against everyone, including his own brother, Hafez. Didn’t he attempt a power grab in 1983?”

“He took advantage of Hafez al-Assad’s illness and hospitalization, deploying tanks and his forces. He commanded a faction much like the sectarian and ideological militias that function as parallel armies,” said Hamadeh when asked about Rifaat.

“Dealing with Hafez al-Assad was inevitable—Lebanon shares borders with both Syria and Israel, and Syria was our gateway to the Arab world. We went to Hafez, but we never imagined we would encounter Rifaat, the man widely believed—along with Air Force Intelligence chief Mohammed al-Khouly—to have orchestrated the assassination of Kamal Jumblatt,” he added.

President Hafez al-Assad and his brother Rifaat in January 1984. (AFP file)

‘You look so much like your father’

“One day in 1983, Rifaat invited us to dinner at a villa in Eastern Mezzeh, not far from the notorious Mezzeh prison. Walid Jumblatt (son of Kamal Jumblatt) and I were stunned. How could we accept the invitation? And how could we refuse? At the time, we were in exile in Damascus during the Mountain War against the Lebanese Forces. As the saying goes, it was an offer we couldn’t refuse. We decided to go but remained extremely cautious,” Hamadeh recounted.

“The atmosphere felt more like a tavern than a formal gathering. Rifaat was heavily intoxicated but spoke freely, rambling without pause. We were eager for the evening to end when he suddenly said, ‘I have some advice for you.’”

According to Hamadeh, Rifaat proceeded and said: “You’re aligning yourselves with my brother, Hafez. That means you’re on the side of the Soviets, against America, and fighting Israel through the national resistance. But why bother? Go strike a deal with the Maronites—give them part of Mount Lebanon, take the southern part for yourselves, and establish your own state. My brother is a fool. We Alawites have the best region—mountains, coastline. We’ll set up our own state there, without all this nonsense. We’ll reconcile with the Americans, sign a peace deal with Israel, and move forward.”

After Rifaat concluded his statement, Hamadeh and Walid nudged each other under the table.

“We knew better than to react—positively or negatively. In Damascus, whether you were in a villa or a hotel, you could be certain that everything was recorded, every word monitored. We said nothing. We finished dinner and left, unharmed—or so we believed. I doubt Rifaat managed to extract anything from us, and I don’t think Hafez’s security services got anything either,” Hamadeh remarked.

Forty days after Kamal Jumblatt’s assassination in 1977, Walid traveled to Damascus to meet Hafez al-Assad, who reportedly told him, “You look so much like your father.”

When asked if the account was true, Hamadeh confirmed.

“The massacre that followed Kamal Jumblatt’s assassination, which targeted Christian civilians in the Chouf, also struck Christian Jumblatt supporters—those who considered themselves leftist or came from families aligned with the Jumblatt camp in the historic Druze rivalry between the Jumblatt and Yazbaki factions. Walid was furious when he realized the killings had reached these communities. He rushed from village to village alongside the Druze spiritual leader, trying to stop the bloodshed. It deeply affected him. He felt he had not only inherited his father’s murder but had also walked into a conspiracy designed to drive an irreversible wedge between the Druze and Christians,” recalled Hamadeh.

“Investigations later revealed the identities of the Syrian operatives behind the assassination. A respected judge from Sidon, Hassan al-Qawas, conducted a thorough probe—his findings remain locked away in Walid Jumblatt’s personal safe and in Lebanon’s Justice Palace, but no action was ever taken against the killers,” he added.

‘Larger conspiracy’

As per Hamadeh, the inquiry found that four Syrian intelligence officers hijacked a Christian man’s car. He escaped and reached Baakline, where he revealed the assassins’ escape route. They had fled toward Jdeideh, in the outskirts of Beirut.

The operation was carried out by Syrian intelligence under the command of Maj. Ibrahim Hweiji, who reported to al-Khouly. The details of the murder became clear.

Walid then gathered his party members and senior Druze clerics, telling them: “I know who killed my father. You know that I know. And I know that you know.”

But he warned them that a larger conspiracy was at play—one aimed at driving the Arab presence out of Mount Lebanon and dismantling the Druze stronghold, either by forcing them into exile in southern Syria’s Jabal al-Arab or pushing them into the sea.

“I cannot let this happen,” Walid told them. “I will go to Syria—it is our only Arab gateway, the only Arab route. I will not turn to Israel, and I refuse to be cast into the sea,” he added.

When he arrived in Damascus, Hafez received him with remarkable courtesy—whether genuine or laced with deception was unclear. The Syrian leader feigned surprise at what had happened, distancing himself from the crime even though it was carried out by his own men.

“You look so much like your father,” Hafez told Walid, before offering reassurances about the fate of the Druze in Mount Lebanon, describing them as the guardians of Arab frontiers since the Crusades.

This initial dialogue opened a narrow pathway for cooperation, which later expanded, particularly after Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon.

In the battles for Beirut, Walid’s forces fought alongside remnants of the Syrian army—specifically the 82nd Brigade, led by Gen. Mohammed Halal, a Sunni officer from Daraa—who, despite limited manpower, resisted the Israeli advance alongside Amal Movement fighters.

Bashar al-Assad and Walid Jumblatt. (AFP file)

‘No chemistry’

Hamadeh touched on the fraught relationship between Walid Jumblatt and Hafez’s successor, Bashar al-Assad, and said:

“The first open rejection of Bashar’s policies by Walid led to a major crisis in 2000. Syria, under Bashar’s leadership and through Lebanese intelligence, launched an all-out electoral war against us—and against Rafik al-Hariri in Beirut. They incited opposition against him, but we won all the seats in Mount Lebanon, and Hariri secured a sweeping victory in Beirut.”

At the same time, Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon.

“Hezbollah realized that Israel was looking to cut its losses and decided to pull out,” Hamadeh said.

“Among Christians, discussions soon followed, leading to the issuance of the Maronite bishops' statement. Their position aligned with ours: if the enemy (Israel) had withdrawn, then the brother (Syria) should also reconsider its presence. The Christian clergy explicitly called for a Syrian military withdrawal. We, on the other hand, took a more measured stance, urging a reduction in Syria’s presence. In parliament, Walid called for a Syrian redeployment,” he added.

This triggered an immediate backlash. Assem Kanso, a former colleague and then-secretary of Lebanon’s Baath Party, accused Walid of treason and called for his execution.

“That was the first major crisis of Bashar’s rule, right at the start of his presidency,” Hamadeh said.

“Frankly, I can say that relations between Walid and Bashar were never good. From their very first meeting, there was simply no chemistry between them,” explained Hamadeh.

“We always knew that Hafez al-Assad was behind decisions involving assassinations and kidnappings. At An-Nahar, we were well aware of the abduction of Michel Abu Jaoudeh.”

“But Hafez’s son, Bashar, was a different story—closed off, detached. He brought his wife from London, projected a modern image, and claimed to be the champion of the internet in the Middle East. Yet within three months, he couldn’t tolerate the cafes and clubs he had allowed to open in Damascus. Do you remember what happened to the intellectuals? He briefly opened the door for them, then slammed it shut. Many ended up in Seydnaya and Tadmur prisons.”

“There was never any chemistry between Bashar and Walid,” Hamadeh reiterated.

Lahoud’s extension

“Bashar began tightening the screws on us, and we started looking for a way out. In 2003, he forced Rafik al-Hariri to reshuffle the government, removing some of his key allies. He then tried to push us out as well, but neither Hariri nor Walid gave in. We remained in the cabinet that oversaw the 2004 presidential election. At the time, Hariri had famously declared, ‘I would cut off my hand before extending Emile Lahoud’s term.’ Walid shared the same conviction.”

“We spoke with Bashar, who tried to offer reassurances, but we knew he was orchestrating Lahoud’s extension. There were figures with strong ties to Syria, though not necessarily to Bashar—people like Jean Obeid, who had broad Arab and international acceptance, particularly in the Gulf. But Bashar refused to consider anyone other than Lahoud.”

“Tensions escalated significantly at that point, coinciding with a rare alignment between the US and France on expelling Syria from Lebanon.”

“Resolution 1559 was the product of a US-French understanding, and Michel Aoun had played a role in its preparation before striking a deal with the Syrians to secure his return from exile and eventually become president,” said Hamadeh.

“In February 2004, I traveled to Brussels as acting foreign minister. At the time, we had suspended executions to maintain our standing with Europe, which opposed the death penalty. I gave assurances to that effect—an agreement that remains in place today. After leaving a Lebanon-Europe conference, the Dutch foreign minister, who chaired the meeting, told me: ‘You have succeeded this time as a good lawyer for a losing case.’”

“I had promised that we would not amend the constitution regarding capital punishment, a move that sparked controversy back home. We held annual conferences with Europe—one economic, which I had organized in November, and another political, attended by foreign ministers. I stepped in for Jean Obeid, who told me he was planning an African tour and wanted to avoid embarrassment, as the Syria issue would be raised in the conference.”

“The Dutch minister then delivered a stark message: ‘You got through this year, but next year, there will be only one item on the agenda: Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon.’”

Rafik al-Hariri (C), Walid Jumblatt (L) and Nabih Berri.

‘Break Lebanon over your head’

“The decision had already been made between the Americans and their allies—before Rafik al-Hariri even knew about it. When he did, he seemed encouraged, believing it meant Emile Lahoud’s term would not be extended and that Lebanon could shift away from Syria’s grip, particularly as Hezbollah’s growing military and security presence was becoming intolerable.”

“That August, Hariri, [parliament Speaker] Nabih Berri, and Walid Jumblatt were summoned to Damascus. Syrian intelligence chief in Lebanon Rustum Ghazaleh visited them, informing them that President Bashar al-Assad expected them at a meeting the next morning at 9 a.m.”

“Jumblatt refused outright. Berri agreed to go. Hariri hesitated, but Ghazaleh pressed him, insisting that as Lebanon’s prime minister, his presence was mandatory,” said Hamadeh. “When Ghazaleh made another attempt to persuade Jumblatt, his response was unequivocal: ‘I will not go.’”

“The meeting between Hariri and Assad reportedly lasted just 10 minutes, with Hariri standing the entire time. According to reports, Assad bluntly told him: ‘You want to change Lebanon’s face. You want to impose a president. You want to force us out. I will break Lebanon over your head, over Walid Jumblatt’s head, and over Jacques Chirac’s head.’”

Hariri returned to Walid Jumblatt’s residence in Clemenceau, Beirut, where Hamadeh was waiting alongside MP Bassem al-Sabaa. He recounted what had transpired with Bashar.

According to Hamadeh, Jumblatt told him: “You voted for Lahoud’s extension because they would have killed you otherwise.”

Hariri responded: “And you?”

Jumblatt replied: “I’m going to the mountains to save myself.”

That’s exactly what happened. Hariri, however, could not come to terms with the situation.

“We—the three Progressive Socialist Party ministers and Fares Boueiz—resigned instead of voting. Jean Obeid, meanwhile, did not attend, but in the end, they forced him to be counted as present. He refused to go, yet they ordered Cabinet Secretary-General Suheil Bouji to record his attendance,” said Hamadeh.

“Hariri ultimately gave in and attended the extension session, where he cast his vote in favor. A list of 29 MPs who rejected Lahoud’s extension was published—an honor roll of dissent,” he added.

“From that list, they picked me. In October 2004, I was targeted in an assassination attempt. Three-and-a-half months later, Hariri was assassinated.”

“On February 14, 2005, I was at An-Nahar newspaper, meeting European Ambassador Patrick Renaud. I still remember his name vividly because of what happened next. We heard a massive explosion—a real tremor. Initially, we thought it might have been an arms depot detonating.”

“We immediately started calling Clemenceau, where Jumblatt was, and Qoreitem, Hariri’s residence. By then, Jumblatt had already rushed to the American University Hospital,” recounted Hamadeh.

“You ask if I was targeted because of my close ties to both men? Without a doubt. Perhaps the goal was to eliminate me ahead of the elections—to ensure I would not run. Maybe they thought: this one can be dealt with. They had a candidate lined up against me, but he always lost. That time, however, there was no election—I won unopposed because of the assassination attempt.”

Syrian withdrawal

Hamadeh’s friendship with Hariri and his unique position allowed him to mediate whenever tensions arose with Walid Jumblatt—whether over economic policies that Walid disagreed with or other matters.

“I always stepped in to reconcile them, preserving and strengthening their alliance,” said Hamadeh. “Over 15 to 20 years, their relationship evolved into a genuine friendship. They stood together on everything—from security and economic policies to building hospitals. It was a true partnership, and I was one of its guardians,” he remembered.

“After Hariri’s assassination, Walid wept for him—and perhaps for Lebanon as well. He feared Syria’s grip would tighten, with a Syrian-backed president in Lahoud and a government under Omar Karami, handpicked by Damascus,” said Hamadeh.

The March 14 mass protest—sparked by Hariri’s killing—was a revelation for Walid. He realized that the momentum created by Hariri’s blood would ultimately force Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon.

“Yet, Walid was also wary. He knew that politics is a cycle of ebb and flow—that the victory could eventually turn against us. Our immediate goal was to remove Lahoud from the presidency, and Walid was eager to push him out,” added Hamadeh.

“However, when Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir opposed the move, insisting the president should serve out his term, we had to adjust our course. This led us to commit a serious mistake—the 2005 Quadripartite Agreement with Hezbollah,” he added.

When asked if he accused the Syrian regime of attempting to assassinate him, Hamadeh said: “And Hezbollah as well. I have the indictment right here on my desk, detailing everything.”

He alleged that all assassination operations were led by a unit commanded by Hezbollah member Imad Mughniyeh, but the actual executor was Mustafa Badreddine, known by the alias Sami Issa.

“Badreddine lived in Jounieh under a Christian name. He owned a jewelry shop, had a yacht, and moved within the city’s elite circles, surrounded by wealthy acquaintances.”

Among the operatives, he pointed to Salim Jamil Ayyash, who was convicted in absentia for Hariri’s assassination.

“The others are dead—Imad Mughniyeh was killed early on, and Badreddine was assassinated later. Under international law, they can no longer be pursued,” said Hamadeh.

He emphasized that while Syria facilitated the assassinations, the decision and execution originated in Tehran and ended in Hezbollah’s stronghold of Haret Hreik in Beirut’s southern suburbs.

Rafik al-Hariri (L) and Marwan Hamadeh seated at parliament. (Courtesy of Marwan Hamadeh)

Arab Syria

When asked about his feelings upon arriving in Damascus and finding interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa sitting in the chair once occupied by both Bashar and Hafez al-Assad, Hamadeh reflected:

“The whole trip stirred emotions. Crossing from the Al-Masnaa border to Jdeidet Yabous, not through military checkpoints or Syrian intelligence, felt different. The road was clear, with no scrutiny, and there were no statues or inscriptions declaring 'Assad forever' along the way. All the military barracks were either destroyed or abandoned. As you approach Damascus, you feel like you’re stepping back into the times of the Umayyads and Abbasids, returning to the heart of Arab Syria.”

He continued, describing the route to the presidential palace: “It reminded me that Hariri was the one who built this palace, funded by Saudi Arabia. But today, you arrive at the palace and find no guards until you reach the gates. Upon entering, you're welcomed by a young man exuding wisdom, calm, and rationality. He may not act on everything he says, but you feel his clear vision.”

Reflecting on al-Sharaa’s character, Hamadeh noted: “I found in al-Sharaa a blend of revolutionary spirit and leadership. He wants to quickly shift Syria from an era of factions to a republic, from the time of divisions to the time of the state. Syria is still fragmented, with issues like the Kurdish and Druze concerns that we raised, but thankfully, progress is being made. He’s cautious about the Alawites, fearing reprisals from his own people, but insists, ‘We have nothing against the Alawites.’ A significant portion of them opposed the Assad regime.”

He added that al-Sharaa believed that the people of Damascus, and Syria more broadly, should not be blamed for events that transpired over 1,400 years ago. He saw the situation as a political accident, the weight of which has been unfairly placed on entire communities, even to this day.

As he reflected on the tension between Syria and Iran, Hamadeh also recalled how al-Sharaa's forces rapidly swept through the country in a lightening campaign that ousted Assad in December.

“I asked how they managed to travel from Aleppo to Damascus in just three days. He explained, ‘We didn’t breach military borders. The people opened the roads for us. The people of Hama and Homs welcomed us, their only concern was to avoid further bloodshed.’ They started by freeing prisoners, allowing people to breathe before they liberated government buildings or military establishments like the Ministry of Defense,” said Hamadeh.

“This was very reminiscent of what happened when Kamal Jumblatt was assassinated, with some blaming the Christian community, even though it was the Syrian regime behind the murder,” he added.

When asked about his surprise that Syria was now free of Iranian influence, Hamadeh said: “What surprised me was that Syria is now in the hands of its people, without a security state. The former security apparatus would target anyone, even those with minimal connections to the Assad regime. That was al-Sharaa's main concern—ensuring this didn’t happen. There are still employees from the Assad era who remain today.”

Optimism

He was then asked about his feelings when conducting the interview at An-Nahar newspaper’s building, a publication with a long history of clashes with the Assad regime. Hamadeh said: “Our newspaper was bombed, occupied, and its editor-in-chief Michel Abu Ghida was kidnapped. He was later freed with the help of Yasser Arafat and Kamal Jumblatt through mediation with Hafez al-Assad and Hikmat al-Shihabi. They tried to assassinate Gebran Tueni when he was still young. They came back, occupied our office, seized the archives, and took the entire newspaper’s records. For almost 20 days, we, along with other media outlets, were in a state of siege. From that point, we were all in the same cage.”

Hamadeh continued, recounting the tragic story: “The rest of the story is well known. They assassinated journalist and writer Samir Kassir, then they killed Tueni. We tried to send him abroad for safety, but he refused. They also attempted to bankrupt the newspaper. Hariri had a stake in An-Nahar, and they pressured him to sell it. Assad himself personally imposed this. We didn’t have the funds to buy his shares, but Hariri crafted a deal, delaying the payment until after the election of a new president, with the understanding that Lahoud wouldn’t be re-elected and that Lebanon would finally be free from Syrian pressure. But that never happened. After Hariri’s assassination, the deal was torn up.”

When asked about the election of Gen. Joseph Aoun as Lebanon’s president and the formation of a government led by Nawaf Salam, Hamadeh expressed optimism for Lebanon’s future.

“The opportunity came before they were chosen. It arose from their profiles—one preserved the army, and the other preserved his dignity and knowledge. They brought forward a Lebanese movement that wasn’t originally coordinated, but it translated into a popular wave,” he remarked. “We’ve returned to the Arab fold. As soon as the new president was elected, we knew we had emerged from the cage into the embrace of the Arab world. This marks the difference between the Assad regime and the systems they used to attack, which have proven to be more progressive than them.”



Pro-Israel Lobby Spends Big on US Midterms as Backlash Grows

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at the AIPAC policy conference in Washington, DC, US, March 6, 2018. (Reuters)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at the AIPAC policy conference in Washington, DC, US, March 6, 2018. (Reuters)
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Pro-Israel Lobby Spends Big on US Midterms as Backlash Grows

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at the AIPAC policy conference in Washington, DC, US, March 6, 2018. (Reuters)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at the AIPAC policy conference in Washington, DC, US, March 6, 2018. (Reuters)

The most powerful pro-Israel lobby in the United States is spending more than any other outside group on the 2026 midterms -- even as its once-coveted backing becomes an increasingly potent weapon for political opponents.

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) has poured tens of millions of dollars into races nationwide through its main election-spending vehicle, the United Democracy Project (UDP).

The so-called "super PAC" -- a group allowed to lavish unlimited sums to influence elections, provided it operates independently of candidates -- has spent $54 million on congressional races, according to campaign finance monitor OpenSecrets.

That has made it the single largest outside spender of the cycle, OpenSecrets said, while the wider pro-Israel donor network spent $71 million -- placing it second only to the cryptocurrency industry.

The extraordinary financial firepower underscores AIPAC's continued influence in Washington -- but also a growing backlash over US policy toward Israel and the role of wealthy interest groups in American elections.

AIPAC has concentrated much of its spending on Democratic primaries, supporting candidates strongly committed to Israel and trying to defeat critics of unconditional US military aid.

It didn't respond to a request for comment, but it has rejected suggestions that its influence is collapsing, saying hundreds of candidates it backed have won their primaries.

Its money has indeed delivered victories this year, but also some expensive failures.

- Money meets resistance -

In Michigan, AIPAC and allied groups spent around $30 million in an unsuccessful effort to prevent progressive former health official Abdul El-Sayed from winning the Democratic Senate nomination over establishment-backed Congresswoman Haley Stevens.

Progressives have also defeated candidates supported by AIPAC-linked money in congressional contests in California, Illinois and New York, often turning the group's spending itself into a campaign issue.

Eli Clifton, of US foreign policy think tank the Quincy Institute, said UDP was the biggest spender in Michigan, although 97 percent of its large contributions came from outside the state -- and its biggest donors are Republican billionaires.

"This is a special interest that participates outside of the partisan framework, and it's really all about advancing the interests of a foreign country," he told AFP.

Unease over the group is no longer confined to Democrats.

Allies of Mike Rogers, the Republican Senate nominee in Michigan, recently asked AIPAC not to run advertisements publicly on his behalf, US media reported, fearing its overt involvement would benefit El-Sayed in the Arab-American heartland.

- Shifting opinion -

The discomfort reflects a broader transformation in US attitudes toward Israel following years of war in Gaza and widening conflict across the Middle East.

A June Quinnipiac University poll found 48 percent of American voters believed Washington was too supportive of Israel, including 66 percent of Democrats -- the highest overall figure in nine years of the survey.

The change has been clearest on the Democratic left, where candidates increasingly portray AIPAC as too closely aligned with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and emblematic of big-money interests overwhelming ordinary voters.

But criticism has spread to the populist right, where some "America First" conservatives have attacked Washington's support for Israel and blamed pro-Israel lobbying for drawing the United States deeper into foreign conflicts.

AIPAC's financial strength, meanwhile, continues to grow. OpenSecrets says the organization itself has contributed $30 million to UDP.

And its political power remains formidable, with US military aid to Israel continuing to attract broad support in Congress.

But the primaries have demonstrated that record spending cannot guarantee victory -- and a once-prized endorsement can now, in some races, be something candidates would rather their opponents talked less about.

"That's precisely why they never mention US foreign policy and Israel in their ads," Casey Kennedy, co-founder of the Track AIPAC advocacy platform, told AFP.

"AIPAC knows AIPAC is toxic, and the more they spend, the more toxic they become with voters across the political spectrum."


Satellite Images Show Bedrock and Glacier Collapsed on Nepal-China Border, Then Rivers Flooded

 This satellite image provided by Vantor shows destruction at Syapru Besi, Nepal on Thursday, Aug. 27, 2026. (Satellite image ©2026 Vantor via AP)
This satellite image provided by Vantor shows destruction at Syapru Besi, Nepal on Thursday, Aug. 27, 2026. (Satellite image ©2026 Vantor via AP)
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Satellite Images Show Bedrock and Glacier Collapsed on Nepal-China Border, Then Rivers Flooded

 This satellite image provided by Vantor shows destruction at Syapru Besi, Nepal on Thursday, Aug. 27, 2026. (Satellite image ©2026 Vantor via AP)
This satellite image provided by Vantor shows destruction at Syapru Besi, Nepal on Thursday, Aug. 27, 2026. (Satellite image ©2026 Vantor via AP)

As rescue teams searched for missing people following catastrophic flooding along the Nepal-China border, Earth scientists reviewed satellite imagery for clues to the cause and assessed the devastation.

The flooding Wednesday killed hundreds of people in Nepal and Tibet, and hundreds more are missing, including foreigners and pilgrims.

Geomorphologists Kristen Cook and Dan Shugar said initial images from Nepal were obscured by clouds and dust from the debris, so they could only see that part of a glacier had broken off from Langtang Lirung peak, near the border with Tibet. In clearer images from Thursday, they said they could see that the bedrock underneath the glacier had collapsed, taking the massive chunk of ice down with it and sending boulders and ice into the valley.

“It shows the whole area without anything hidden, and we could see that, yes, it looked like there was not only this glacier that had failed, but a much larger chunk of the bedrock of the mountainside itself that had given way,” said Shugar, associate professor at the University of Calgary. “You have this big bedrock failure that took part of the glacier with it.”

This satellite image provided by Vantor shows Syapru Besi, Nepal on Oct. 18, 2023. (Satellite image ©2026 Vantor via AP)

Shugar said it’s heart-wrenching to look downstream from there on the images, to where people were living, and see how the debris has buried villages.

After slamming to the valley floor, the debris maintained its momentum through the steep, narrow valley as ice melted, said Cook, at the Université Grenoble Alpes in France. Water and mud several stories high swept through communities.

The Trishuli River surged during the flooding. Before and after satellite images of the Kolpurtar, Betrawati and Syapru Besi areas of Nepal show that the river is now much wider, and brown and black, because it overtopped its banks in some areas and filled with debris in others. The change in the color of the water shows how much sediment the flow was carrying, turning from greenish to very brown because it's full of mud, Cook said.

Towns and villages that were devastated along the river banks are submerged in debris and mud. They appear as areas of brown. Some houses are still poking through in an image of the Betrawati area.

The flooding toppled and swept away buildings in Syapru Besi, a popular tourist spot where a famous trek to Langtang begins. In before and after images, a side river is now wider too, because the flow was so powerful it pushed upstream.

The flooding “left a wasteland in its wake” that will take many years to recover from, said Alton Byers, a mountain geographer at the University of Colorado at Boulder. Byers lived in Nepal and now returns there yearly to study glacial hazards and work with communities to prepare. This is the largest glacier flood he has seen, by far.

This satellite image provided by Vantor shows destruction at Syapru Besi, Nepal on Thursday, Aug. 27, 2026. (Satellite image ©2026 Vantor via AP)

Byers, faculty research scientist at the university's Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, said he thinks Wednesday's flooding is related to climate change. The Earth's warming is melting glaciers and permafrost, causing instability and the breakage of massive amounts of snow and ice at high altitudes. That can be a catalyst for a series of cascading events, he said.

“All the indicators, to me, point to the impacts of warming trends,” he said. “In this case, the permafrost that for millennia has helped to hold together high-altitude rock and ice and soil and glaciers is now weakening and becoming unstable."

Cook and Shugar said that at this point, they can't say for sure there's a direct link to climate change. Slopes fail and landslides happen, Cook said, though permafrost is melting and that is destabilizing mountainsides.

“While we cannot at this point directly link this collapse to climate change, it is not unexpected to see more events of this type with a warming climate,” Cook said. “Not this big, hopefully not this big.”


China's Help Critical, But Unlikely, for US to Choke off Iran

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent laid out plans this week to strangle Iran's economy. Kent NISHIMURA / AFP
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent laid out plans this week to strangle Iran's economy. Kent NISHIMURA / AFP
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China's Help Critical, But Unlikely, for US to Choke off Iran

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent laid out plans this week to strangle Iran's economy. Kent NISHIMURA / AFP
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent laid out plans this week to strangle Iran's economy. Kent NISHIMURA / AFP

The United States has threatened the "economic asphyxiation" of Iran, but analysts say that a successful chokehold would require unlikely cooperation from China.

Almost six months into the Middle East war, Washington this week laid out plans to expand sanctions against Iran, warning that any nation which continued to enable Tehran would become a "global pariah".

China is among countries whose entities have already been hit by the sweeping US plan, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent telling Beijing to "get with the program".

But Beijing instead has defended its cooperation with Tehran and vowed to safeguard its interests.

The apparent impasse is likely to further strain ties between Beijing and Washington, ahead of an expected visit by China's President Xi Jinping to the US capital in September.

- Oil 'central lever' -

Iran has weathered sanctions for decades, using complex international financial networks to evade restrictions.

Cutting off Iran "would certainly require China's help", said political scientist Dylan Loh of Singapore's Nanyang Technological University.

Beijing is a key customer for Iranian oil, while "a good amount of their trade also relies on (the Chinese currency) renminbi, which can be outside the reach of US sanctions", Loh told AFP.

Before the war, Tehran exported millions of barrels of oil a day, mostly to China.

"Oil is the central economic lever," said Nino Lezhava, a fellow at the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis.

Although most ship traffic in the vital Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, China is not totally cut off from Iran's crude thanks to the highways and railways of Central Asia, said Sun Degang, a professor of political science at Shanghai's Fudan University.

Despite Chinese purchases being lower than before, they remain an important source of revenue.

"Simply continuing to... maintain commercial channels and provide alternative payment mechanisms can substantially reduce the effectiveness of economic isolation," said Lezhava.

- 'Economic sovereignty' -

The United States is well aware of this.

Bessent said "no one is above the reach of US sanctions" when asked if Washington would target Chinese banks that do business with Iran.

However, while its sanctions announced on Monday targeted some Chinese entities accused of helping Tehran procure "critical technology", Washington has so far held back from punishing major Chinese financial institutions.

The United States "can't expect to obtain China's support if it continues to implement sanctions on Chinese companies", said Fudan University's Sun.

"Sino-Iranian trade relations are legitimate and China will safeguard its economic sovereignty."

China is already feeling some consequences from the Strait of Hormuz disruption, adding to economic strain from persistently sluggish domestic consumption.

Cutting off Iran would exacerbate that, as well as implicate Beijing in a messy conflict that has already weakened its strategic rival Washington.

Overall, China has "little reason" to cooperate with the United States on sanctions, said Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.

- 'Push back' -

On Tuesday, China's foreign ministry said its cooperation with Iran has "always been conducted within the framework of international law and should not be interfered with or disrupted".

Chong said that "Beijing seems highly confident of its ability to push back successfully against the US", were it pressured.

China has expanded its capacities to deal "precisely with such scenarios", said Loh.

"China has its own tools to respond to protect its own interest as we have seen in the tit-for-tat export controls," he added.

China and the United States spent much of last year embroiled in an escalating trade war but reached a fragile truce when the two presidents met last October.

A successful global campaign against Iran may require Washington "to provide incentives" to Beijing to join it, said Lim Tai Wei, a professor and East Asia expert at Japan's Soka University.

China would only cooperate "if the costs of supporting Iran became significantly higher than the strategic and economic benefits", said Lezhava.