What Are Hamas' Military Options as Gaza War Resumes?

People sit as Palestinians make their way to flee their homes, after the Israeli army issued evacuation orders for a number of neighborhoods, following heavy Israeli strikes, in the northern Gaza Strip March 18, 2025. REUTERS/Mahmoud Issa
People sit as Palestinians make their way to flee their homes, after the Israeli army issued evacuation orders for a number of neighborhoods, following heavy Israeli strikes, in the northern Gaza Strip March 18, 2025. REUTERS/Mahmoud Issa
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What Are Hamas' Military Options as Gaza War Resumes?

People sit as Palestinians make their way to flee their homes, after the Israeli army issued evacuation orders for a number of neighborhoods, following heavy Israeli strikes, in the northern Gaza Strip March 18, 2025. REUTERS/Mahmoud Issa
People sit as Palestinians make their way to flee their homes, after the Israeli army issued evacuation orders for a number of neighborhoods, following heavy Israeli strikes, in the northern Gaza Strip March 18, 2025. REUTERS/Mahmoud Issa

Until the final moments before Israel resumed its military operations against Gaza, Hamas continued to receive invitations to negotiate and assurances that Tel Aviv preferred a political path over a military one to secure the return of its hostages.

However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, backed by the United States, delivered a surprise blow to the Palestinian faction with a massive airstrike that targeted dozens of locations and killed hundreds.

Since the official expiration of the ceasefire on March 1, Hamas has instructed its leaders and members to take heightened security precautions, move cautiously, avoid using vehicles and modern communication tools, and revert to traditional methods of communication.

In the lead-up to the renewed offensive, Israel ramped up its intelligence operations in Gaza—a move Palestinian faction sources had previously confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat—aiming to update its target database.

This was reflected in the overnight strike, which hit senior and field-level Hamas figures across all its wings, as well as military leaders from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

Tough Choices Ahead for Hamas

Despite Israel’s large-scale assault, Hamas and other Palestinian factions have yet to mount a military response. But what are their options?

Hamas now faces difficult choices regarding its response to the latest escalation.

Sources within the group told Asharq Al-Awsat that it is weighing all options, including a political course, to prevent a broader Israeli offensive in Gaza while allowing its armed wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the opportunity to reassert control and retaliate for what it described as “massacres.”

Hamas still retains some military capabilities to strike Israeli forces, sources told Asharq Al-Awsat. However, the decision on how and when to respond lies with the military leadership of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, depending on battlefield conditions and the progress of mediation efforts aimed at de-escalation, the sources said.

“We are in the holy month of Ramadan and approaching Eid al-Fitr. The movement has no intention to escalate, contrary to Israel’s claims before its attack, which were merely a pretext for its crimes,” one source said.

According to the sources, Hamas will determine its stance in the coming hours—whether to allow its military wing to set the “zero hour” for a response or to pursue mediation efforts that would ensure the immediate opening of border crossings and the entry of humanitarian aid without delay.

What Remains of Hamas’ Military Capabilities?

After 15 months of war, Hamas has suffered significant losses in its military capabilities, particularly its stockpile of long-range rockets once fired at Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and other deep Israeli cities. This decline has been evident over the past three months, with fewer rocket launches.

Despite these setbacks, the al-Qassam Brigades managed a partial recovery, producing a limited number of long-range rockets. On December 28, 2024—just 21 days before a ceasefire agreement—Hamas launched two rockets toward Jerusalem.

Notably, they were fired from Beit Hanoun, in northern Gaza, where Israeli ground forces were operating at the time. The group has also continued to fire short-range rockets at Israeli settlements near Gaza, particularly from southern areas of the enclave.

Field sources, including some from Hamas, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades managed to retrieve manufacturing tools and equipment from tunnels and production sites targeted and destroyed by Israel.

The group rehabilitated some of the equipment and found certain devices intact despite Israeli airstrikes, the sources said.

According to the sources, Hamas' military wing had hoped the ceasefire would last longer, allowing it to resume producing rockets, explosive devices, and other weaponry. However, efforts were severely limited due to a shortage of raw materials.

The sources added that a significant number of rockets—including guided missiles such as Kornet anti-tank missiles and Yassin 105 shells—were recovered from storage sites, homes of Hamas commanders and fighters, and even tunnels, following extensive searches beneath the rubble.

On the personnel front, Hamas has been restructuring its military brigades and recruiting new fighters in preparation for a potential resumption of hostilities—an effort it had already begun amid the fighting in northern Gaza, the sources said.



A Week Into the Fragile Israel-Iran Peace Agreement, Here's What We Still Don't Know

People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
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A Week Into the Fragile Israel-Iran Peace Agreement, Here's What We Still Don't Know

People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

It's been a week since the United States pressed Israel and Iran into a truce, ending a bloody, 12-day conflict that had set the Middle East and globe on edge.

The fragile peace, brokered by the US the day after it dropped 30,000-pound "bunker-busting" bombs on three of Iran's key nuclear sites, is holding. But much remains unsettled, The Associated Press reported.

How badly Iran’s nuclear program was set back remains murky. The prospects of renewed US-Iran peace talks are up in the air. And whether US President Donald Trump can leverage the moment to get Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 's government and Hamas focused on a ceasefire and hostage deal that brings about an end to the 20-month war in Gaza remains an open question.

Here is a look at what we still don't know:

How far Iran's nuclear program has been set back Trump says three targets hit by American strikes were “obliterated.” His defense secretary said they were “destroyed.”

A preliminary report issued by the US Defense Intelligence Agency, meanwhile, said the strikes did significant damage to the Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan sites, but did not totally destroy the facilities.

Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday that the three Iranian sites with “capabilities in terms of treatment, conversion and enrichment of uranium have been destroyed to an important degree.” But, he added, “some is still standing” and that because capabilities remain, “if they so wish, they will be able to start doing this again.” He said assessing the full damage comes down to Iran allowing inspectors access.

What future US-Iran relations might look like

After the ceasefire deal came together, Trump spoke of potentially easing decades of biting sanctions on Tehran and predicted that Iran could become a “great trading nation” if it pulled back once-and-for-all from its nuclear program.

The talk of harmony didn't last long.

Ali Khamenei, in his first public appearance after the ceasefire was announced, claimed Tehran had delivered a “slap to America’s face." Trump responded by suggesting the supreme leader own up to the fact Iran “got beat to hell. The president also said he was backing off reviewing any immediate sanction relief, because of Khamenei's heated comments.

White House officials say the US and Iran are already in early discussions about resuming negotiations that had ended after Israel began launching strikes. But Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says there's no agreement in place to restart talks.

It's unclear if Iran's leadership is ready to come to the table so soon after the fighting has ended — especially if Trump holds to the position that Iran must give up nuclear enrichment for even civilian use. And Trump has offered conflicting statements about his commitment to talks. “We may sign an agreement,” he said Wednesday at a NATO summit press conference. He added, “I don’t think it’s that necessary.”

What role Iran's supreme leader will play

Khamenei's age and recent diminished appearance have raised questions about the scope of his involvement in US-Iran relations and Iran's response to both American and Israeli strikes. But despite having spent the last few weeks in a bunker as threats to his life escalated, there is little indication that Khamenei does not still reign supreme over the country's massive military and governmental operations.

Khamenei has ruled three times longer than his predecessor, the late Ruhollah Khomeini, and has shaped life for the country's more than 90 million people perhaps even more dramatically.

He entrenched the system of rule by the “mullahs,” or Shiite Muslim clerics. That secured his place in the eyes of hard-liners as the unquestionable authority, below only that of God. At the same time, Khamenei built the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard into the dominant force in Iran’s military and internal politics.

How Iran might strike back Iran's retaliatory missile attacks on a US base in Qatar following the American bombardment were sloughed off by the White House as a half-hearted, face-saving measure. The US was forewarned and the salvos were easily fended off.

Yet Iran remains a persistent threat, particularly via cyberwarfare. Hackers backing Tehran have already targeted US banks, defense contractors and oil industry companies — but so far have not caused widespread disruptions to critical infrastructure or the economy.

The US Department of Homeland Security last week issued a public bulletin warning of increased Iranian cyber threats. And the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, is urging organizations that operate critical infrastructure like water systems, pipelines or power plants to stay vigilant.

Whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold It remains a fragile peace.

Immediately following the US strikes, Trump got on the phone with Netanyahu and told the Israeli leader not to expect further US offensive military action, according to a senior White House official who was not authorized to comment publicly about the sensitive diplomatic talks.

But even as he agreed to deal, Netanyahu made clear that Israel will strike again “if anyone in Iran tries to revive this project.”

The ceasefire deal came without any agreement from Tehran on dismantling its nuclear program. Khamenei claims the attacks “did nothing significant” to Iran's nuclear facilities.

Trump expressed confidence that Iran, at the moment, has no interest in getting its nuclear program back up. “The last thing they’re thinking about right now is enriched uranium,” Trump said.

Still, Trump says he expects Iran to open itself to international inspection to verify that it doesn’t restart its nuclear program by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN nuclear watchdog, or some other organization "that we respect, including ourselves.”

Whether Trump can now press Netanyahu on Gaza

The president took a big gamble with his decision to order strikes on Iran's nuclear fortress.

As a candidate, he promised to quickly end Russia's brutal war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, but has failed to find a resolution to either. He also vowed to keep the US military out of foreign conflicts.

But after helping Israel with US strikes on Iran, Trump — in conversations with Netanyahu and other world leaders in recent days — has made clear he wants a deal completed soon, according to two people familiar with the private discussions and were not authorized to comment publicly.

On Friday, Trump told reporters, “We think within the next week we’re going to get a ceasefire.”

Trump didn't offer any further explanation for his optimism. But Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer is expected to be in Washington this week for talks on a Gaza ceasefire, Iran and other matters, according to an official familiar with the matter. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.