Seven weeks of war have failed to topple Iran’s theocratic rulers or force them to meet all of President Donald Trump's demands, but for US adversaries and allies it has cast a spotlight on one of his central vulnerabilities: economic pressure.
Even with Iran’s announcement on Friday that it was reopening the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, the Middle East crisis has revealed the limits of Trump's willingness to tolerate domestic economic pain.
Trump joined Israel in attacking Iran on February 28 based on what he said were imminent security threats, especially over its nuclear program. But now, with US gasoline prices high, inflation rising and his approval ratings down, Trump is racing to secure a diplomatic deal that could stem the fallout at home.
Iran has taken a beating militarily, but demonstrated it can exact economic costs that Trump and his aides underestimated, unleashing the worst-ever global energy shock, analysts say.
RISING ENERGY COSTS, RECESSION RISK
Trump has often publicly shrugged off domestic economic concerns driven by the war. But he can hardly ignore that though the US does not depend on the one-fifth of global oil shipments that were effectively blocked by Iran’s chokehold on the strait, surging energy costs have hit US consumers. The International Monetary Fund’s warning of a risk of global recession adds to the gloom.
Pressure for a way out of the unpopular war has mounted as Trump’s fellow Republicans defend narrow majorities in Congress in the November midterm elections.
None of this has been lost on Iran's leaders, who have used their grip on the strait to push Trump's team to the negotiating table.
Analysts say US rivals China and Russia may draw their own lesson: while Trump has shown an appetite for military force in his second term, he looks for a diplomatic off-ramp as soon as the economic heat becomes uncomfortable at home.
“Trump is feeling the economic pinch, which is his Achilles heel in this war of choice,” said Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy adviser in the Obama administration who heads the Global Situation Room strategic consultancy.
White House spokesman Kush Desai said that while working toward a deal with Iran to resolve "temporary" energy market problems, the administration "has never lost focus on implementing the president’s affordability and growth agenda."
FEELING THE PRESSURE
Trump’s abrupt shift on April 8 from airstrikes to diplomacy followed pressure from financial markets and parts of his base.
Some of the economic pain is borne by US farmers, a key Trump constituency, due to disrupted fertilizer shipments, and is also reflected in higher airfares from increased jet fuel prices.
With the clock ticking on a two-week ceasefire, it remains to be seen whether a president who embraces unpredictability will reach a deal that meets his war goals, extend the truce beyond April 21, or relaunch the bombing campaign.
But global oil prices fell sharply and financial markets, which Trump often sees as a barometer of his success, flourished on Friday after Iran said the strait would be open for the remainder of a separate US-brokered 10-day truce between Israel and Lebanon.
Trump was quick to declare the strait safe as he touted a deal-in-the-making with Iran that he said would be completed soon and mostly on his terms. But Iranian sources told Reuters gaps remained to be resolved. Experts have warned that even if the war ends soon, the economic damage could take months if not years to fix. A key question is whether any deal achieves the objectives Trump has laid out, including closing Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon, which Tehran has long denied it is seeking.
Iran has a stockpile of highly enriched uranium believed buried by US-Israeli strikes in June. Trump told Reuters on Friday the emerging deal calls for the US to work with Iran to recover the material and bring it to the US. Iran denied agreeing to a transfer anywhere outside its territory.
A senior Trump administration official said the US was maintaining "several redlines" in negotiations with Iran. At the same time, Trump’s call at the war’s outset for Iranians to overthrow their government has gone unheeded. Allies from Europe to Asia were initially stunned by Trump’s decision to go to war without consulting them or seeming to take into account the risk to them of Iran closing the strait.
“The alarm bell ringing for allies right now is how the war has highlighted that the administration can act erratically, without much regard for consequences,” said Gregory Poling, an Asia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
After Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, former Democratic President Joe Biden was cautious about imposing sanctions on Moscow’s energy sector out of concern for reducing oil supplies and inflating US gas prices.
But Trump, who ran for a second term on promises of cheap gas and low inflation, has shown himself sensitive to accusations that his policies raise prices. An example was when he reduced tariffs on China last year after it retaliated.
MISCALCULATIONS
Just as Trump misjudged Beijing’s response in a trade war, he seems to have miscalculated how Iran might strike back economically in a shooting war by attacking energy infrastructure in Gulf states and blocking the strategic waterway between them.
Trump mistakenly believed the war would be a limited operation like the January 3 lightning raid in Venezuela and June’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, US officials have said privately. But this time the repercussions are more far-reaching.
The message to Asian allies such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan may be that Trump, who is looking for warmer ties with China, can be expected to pursue his regional goals with less regard for their geopolitical and economic security.
Analysts believe those governments will adjust for any contingency, such as a Chinese bid to seize Taiwan, out of concern over Trump’s reliability.
