With the US-led anti-extremist coalition leaving Iraq, Baghdad faces mounting pressure to rein in Tehran-backed armed groups, a difficult task in a country long caught between its allies, the US and Iran.
Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, who assumed power earlier this year with the United States' blessing, has pledged that after the coalition exits on Wednesday, pro-Iran groups would hand over their weapons to the state.
But the issue has proven far more complicated than simple announcements, said AFP.
Iraq has long been a proxy battleground for the US and Iran, with each interfering in major political decisions and government formation.
The ongoing Middle East war, during which Iran-backed groups in Iraq targeted US facilities there and around the region hundreds of times, has deepened Iraq's entanglement.
- 'Tricky' -
Several senior Iraqi officials told AFP that Iran will not accept that the factions hand over their weapons, especially amid the regional war, and its officials have clearly relayed the message.
"If there's a deal between the US and Iran, I think that this whole issue becomes very easy to deal with," Iraqi political analyst Sajad Jiyad said.
But Jiyad said "Iran has been very clear that while there is a conflict going on, they cannot give up their strategic capabilities", including the Iraqi groups and "their ability to attack US interests in Iraq and the region".
It is, however, a "tricky situation", because Iran doesn't want an "unstable Iraq", he added.
"Iran's agenda is to reach a deal with the US, so that these groups will naturally reduce their visibility and activity," without giving up capabilities.
The factions also want assurances that the US won't target them before they consider surrendering their weapons.
But if no progress is forthcoming in terms of disarming these groups, then "the US is not going to make a longer-term commitment of not targeting them", he said.
It will continue on its usual paths: diplomatic and economic pressure through sanctions, and occasional strikes.
- 'Liability' -
The US-led coalition deployed to Iraq and Syria in 2014 to fight the ISIS group, which seized large swathes of both countries and committed atrocities.
Both the coalition and Tehran-backed groups fought ISIS, their common enemy.
After ISIS's defeat in Iraq in 2017, those groups demanded the withdrawal of US troops and began targeting them with drones and missiles, triggering US retaliatory strikes that killed several of their commanders over the years.
US pressure on successive Iraqi governments to disarm the factions mounted, especially after they intervened in support of Palestinians during the Gaza war in 2023, and later backed Tehran in the Middle East war.
Political analyst Jiyad said little should be expected after the coalition's pullout.
"We are not going to get disarmament... but there has to be some sort of progress and some plan," he said.
"What is probably going to happen is the process begins" towards a solution, but it will require time and "trust-building measures".
The Tehran-backed groups feel the government is unable to protect them from the US, and the government sees them as a "liability," he added.
- No plan -
While some groups said they would disarm, other powerful factions refuse to do so.
But the government "does not even have a plan" for how it is going to disarm them, a diplomatic source in Baghdad said.
Two senior politicians told AFP that Zaidi, a newcomer to politics, had repeatedly said he was ready to "confront" the groups if they don't disarm.
For weeks, tensions grew until an unannounced truce was reached, with the intervention of senior politicians who are now hoping to work out a deal.
An Iraqi official said that "the issue needs time to reassure the factions, and prevent any confrontation between Iraqi forces and the armed groups".
Kazem al-Fartoussi, spokesperson for the Kataeb Sayyid al-Shuhada armed group, said the factions don't want a confrontation with the state because "there will be no winners".
But "our weapons are precious, so we have said these weapons are in exchange for sovereignty," including the withdrawal of foreign troops and an end to American political and economic interference.
Fartoussi said the factions are in talks with the government about "regulating" their weapons, as well as their relationship with the state, but he doesn't trust the US.
For the Americans and Israelis, their objective is "nothing other than eliminating the factions, not the weapons," Fartoussi said.
If the issue is the factions' "existence", then "we reject any discussion".
