The Red October: 100 Years Later

Lenin addressing troops at Red Square in Moscow in May 25, 1919. Getty images
Lenin addressing troops at Red Square in Moscow in May 25, 1919. Getty images
TT

The Red October: 100 Years Later

Lenin addressing troops at Red Square in Moscow in May 25, 1919. Getty images
Lenin addressing troops at Red Square in Moscow in May 25, 1919. Getty images

This month marks the centenary of the 1917 Revolution in Russia which led to the foundation of the Soviet Union. Many in the Russian Federation will mark the occasion with special festivities. A majority of Russians have moved away from the Communist heritage. The remnant of the Communist Party receives no more than 10 to 15 per cent of the votes in elections. All over the world almost all Communist Parties have either disappeared or morphed into different identities. Nostalgics of Communism will also be in festive mood. However, it would also provide an occasion to remember the victims of the Bolshevik revolution and its child Stalinism. Here, we cast a glance at the origins of the Red October in its early phase.

Russian President Boris Yeltsin called it “the greatest tragedy in the history of Russian people.” To the French poet Louis Aragon it was “the event that redefined the modern world”. An American journalist labeled it “Ten days that Shook the World.”

The “it” in question was the October Revolution which led to the seizure of power in Russia by the Bolshevik Party 100 years ago. Well, seizure of power may not be the right phrase if only because when the Bolsheviks pushed themselves to the front of the stage there was no power in Russia to seize. The Tsarist edifice had collapsed and the provisional government headed by Alexander Kerensky was acting like a headless chicken. On occasions, Prime Minister Kerensky had to find a horse-driven droshky to take him to the office because the driver of his limousine hadn’t turned up. Exhausted by three years of war and carnage the vast empire was on the edge of famine, its administration in taters and its agriculture almost wiped out.

When a group of armed sailors appeared at an open session of the Duma, the Russian parliament that had emerged from the country’s first and last free elections, the deputies had only one thought: how to flee into safety. Suddenly, Russia, the largest country in the world, was left without anyone in charge. The Bolsheviks pretended they could fill the vacuum but soon found out they couldn’t. They were a small party of middle class urban intellectuals, most of them just back from exile, with little contact with the Russian heartland. In the election for Duma the party had won around five per cent of the votes. But its leader Vladimir Illych Ulianov, better known by his nom de guerre of Lenin, believed that in war-torn Russia power was like a jewel box that had fallen in the street for anyone to pick up. He was determined to be the one who does it. What he didn’t realize was that in doing so he would not inherit a power that had ceased to exist but a responsibility that his party was in no position to assume.

Initially, Lenin, who was a master of tweets long before twitter was invented only hoped to win a propaganda battle thanks to his daily missives. Days after he was told that he was now in charge he “tweeted” that his aim was that the Bolsheviks, acting through what he called Soviets of Workers, Peasants, Soldiers and Sailors, would be able to hang on for at least 100 days so as to last longer than the Paris Commune, the model for the Communist Utopia, had lasted in 1871.

When the 100 days came and went, Lenin began to realize that triggering a revolution is far easier than building a new society. He saw Russia plunged into a civil war that lasted almost four years, claiming millions of victims. In 1921 he wrote: “The civil war has decimated our proletariat exactly when we want it to build the new Russia.”

Half regretting his own propaganda, Lenin shared his doubts with the 11th Congress of his party. “Because of my position, every day I hear a lot of sentimental Communist lies; and sometimes I get sick of them.”

Having mobilized his party‘s energy to destroy the cursed “bourgeoisie,” he realized that Russia needed that very same bourgeoisie to rebuild.

“The idea that Communists alone could build the Communist society is naïve, absolutely childish. We Communists are but a drop in the ocean of the people. We’ll be able to build Communism only if we make the vanquished bourgeoisie work for us”.

Marx had taught that every state belongs to one dominant class in different stages of history, starting with the primitive commune to capitalism and passing by feudalism. While casting himself as an arch-Marxist, however, Lenin rejected that linear analysis. He insisted that there could be a shortcut for direct passage from capitalism to Communism. During that shortcut the state would be controlled by “the vanguard of the proletariat”, that is to say the Communist Party.

Experience quickly showed that Lenin’s romantic optimism had been misplaced. The mass of Russians lived in starvation as Politburo members fought over whether or not to use the Tsarist gold reserves for importing canned food from France. Lenin decided to sue terror to fore peasants to share part of their meagre crops to feed the starving cities.

In a letter, his kind of “tweet”, to Lev Kamenev, who was in charge of the economy, Lenin said: “There is no evolution without terror: political terror and economic terror!”

To use terror systematically, Lenin created CHEKA, the secret police and precursor of the KGB headed by Polish Felix Dzezhinski.

However, the Bolsheviks were not numerous enough to provide the leadership, management and administration required by a huge country at a time of exceptional crisis. In 1924, as he was approaching his early death, Lenin estimated the number of Bolshevik cadres at around 4,700, many of them having jumped on the bandwagon after the victory of the Revolution.

That led Lenin and his party towards a new policy which he dubbed “one step backwards for two steps forward”. The label was the New Economic Policy or NEP which envisaged the creation of mixed public-private enterprises and the creation of state capitalism. When Preobrazhenski, a member of the party’s central committee, publicly took Lenin to task for pursuing a new version of capitalism, the father of the revolution opted for sophistry in response.

“In capitalist society the proletariat works for the bourgeoisie, “he said. “In Communist society, the bourgeoisie works for the proletariat.”

"Peasants ask us: The capitalist is able to supply things that we want, charging exorbitant prices and humiliated and robbed us. But he was, after all, able to supply things,“ Lenin said. “But what about you, Communists? Can you supply the things we need? You Communists may be saints destined for heavens. But can you get things done? Can you supply what we need?"

It took history almost 80 years to provide the answer, which was “no.”

Initially, Lenin wanted a talk-fest in which all Russians, used to silence for centuries, would air their grievances in public and make their views heard. Soon, however, he realized that freedom of speech and of press could be dangerous for the kind of centralized state he was trying to build.

Three years after “Red October”, the heavy Russian silence which Tolstoy had claimed was due to drunkenness, was back in force. Lenin told the party congress: “We can have free debates on weekends but absolute obedience to the Soviet leader, the dictator, the rest of the week. One wonders what would have happened today when every chat-room in cyberspace is a Soviet!

Having called for the abolition of censorship, Lenin soon returned to measures that the Tsarist regime would not have thought of. He described press freedom as deadly and dangerous. Freedom for whom, and for what?

He insisted that “all over the world wherever there are capitalists, press freedom means freedom to buy newspapers, to buy writers, to bribe, buy and fabricate public opinion for the benefit of the bourgeoisie.”

His argument was that once “history” had chosen the path of Revolution, there could be no free choice that might harm or hamper the course of Revolution. Thus, freedom of choice belongs to pre-Revolutionary societies, a bourgeois value.

When faced with the inevitable failure of his Revolution to produce “positive improvement” in the material of the workers and peasants, Lenin blamed Russia’s “deep-rooted backwardness.”

“Facts and figures reveal the vast and urgent task we face to reach the level of an ordinary West European civilized country, bearing in mind the semi-Asiatic ignorance from which we have not been able to extricate ourselves,” he wrote in a message to the Central Committee.

“As long as our countryside lacks the material basis for Communism in the countryside, under no circumstances should we immediately advance purely and exclusively Communist ideas. (Doing that) would be harmful, I might say even fatal.”

At one point, Lenin suggested to send students to Britain, Germany, Canada and the United Sates to learn how to organize and manage modern industries and offices. The Central Committee took no action because the Soviet state had no money for that and there was no guarantee the Western "enemies" would issue the necessary visas.

Sometimes, Lenin's proposed solutions for major problems were derisory. In one memo to the Central Committee he said the country's educational system was on the verge of collapse. But the solution he suggested was increase bread ration for teachers!

In another memo he presented his parable of the mountain in which a group of climbers have gone far up a range but feel lost and unable to reach the summit. The way out of the situation is to climb down and cast a fresh look at what lies ahead on the way to the summit. The trouble is that human societies cannot be treated as blank pages on which one could doodle as one wishes in the hope of finding the right shape. You make a mistake on the path, people die. You correct the mistake, people die.

Isolated within its ideological cocoon, the Bolshevik leaders also spent much time on in-fighting and clan rivalries. Lenin wanted to promote Bukharin as the rising star, describing him as “the most valuable theoretician of our party.” That made Stalin jealous. In the end, Stalin could put Bukharin to death, after Lenin had died.

Lenin disliked Larin and did all he could to marginalize him. Zinoviev and Kamenev couldn’t stand each other. Lenin’s concubine, Nadezhda Krupskaya, had a quarrel with Stalin who had been rude to her on telephone. That led to Lenin writing to the Central Committee asking it to replace Stalin, which didn’t happen because Lenin died a few months later.

Lenin's great genius was to realize that there is no standard model, no recipe fr revolutions.

"Every revolution," he wrote, "is a leap into the unknown, and each time a different unknown."



Negotiators Zero in on Potential Deal to Disarm Syria’s Last Battleground

A member of Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stands along a street after opposition fighters seized the capital and ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Hasakah, Syria, December 11, 2024. (Reuters)
A member of Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stands along a street after opposition fighters seized the capital and ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Hasakah, Syria, December 11, 2024. (Reuters)
TT

Negotiators Zero in on Potential Deal to Disarm Syria’s Last Battleground

A member of Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stands along a street after opposition fighters seized the capital and ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Hasakah, Syria, December 11, 2024. (Reuters)
A member of Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stands along a street after opposition fighters seized the capital and ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Hasakah, Syria, December 11, 2024. (Reuters)

Negotiators are zeroing in on a potential deal to resolve one of the most explosive questions looming over Syria's future: the fate of Kurdish forces that the US considers key allies against ISIS but neighboring Türkiye regards as a national security threat.

Diplomatic and military negotiators from the United States, Türkiye, Syria and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are showing more flexibility and patience than their public statements suggest, a dozen sources told Reuters, including five directly involved in the intensive web of discussions in recent weeks.

This could set the stage for an accord in the coming months that would see some Kurdish fighters leave Syria's restive northeast and others brought under the authority of the new defense ministry, six of the sources said.

However, many thorny issues need to be resolved, they said. These include how to integrate the SDF alliance's well-armed and trained fighters into Syria's security framework and administer territory under their control, which includes key oil and wheat fields.

In an interview with Saudi Arabia's Asharq News channel on Tuesday, SDF commander Mazloum Abdi said the alliance's "basic demand" is for decentralized administration - a potential challenge to Syria's new leadership, which wants to bring all of the country back under the government's authority after ousting Bashar al-Assad last month.

Abdi indicated that the SDF has no intention of dissolving, saying it was open to linking with the defense ministry and operating according to its rules, but as "a military bloc".

Syria's new defense minister, Murhaf Abu Qasra, rejected that approach in an interview with Reuters on Sunday, saying the suggestion that the SDF remain one bloc "is not right."

The former opposition fighters now in power in Damascus have said they want all armed groups to integrate into Syria's official forces, under a unified command. The SDF, when asked for comment, referred Reuters to its commander's interview.

How much autonomy Kurdish factions retain likely hinges on whether incoming US president Donald Trump continues Washington's longtime support of its Kurdish allies, according to diplomats and officials on all sides.

Trump has not spoken publicly about his intentions, including his plans for some 2,000 US troops stationed in Syria. A Trump representative did not comment.

Any deal also depends on whether Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan holds off on a threatened military offensive against the People's Protection Units (YPG), the Kurdish group that spearheads the SDF alliance.

Ankara views them as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has been waging an insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984 and is deemed a terrorist group by both Türkiye and the US.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said this month that Syria's new authorities "should be given an opportunity to ... end the occupation and terror the YPG created", but he did not say how long Ankara would wait for it to disarm before launching an incursion.

A Turkish Foreign Ministry source said disarming armed groups and the departure of "foreign terrorist fighters" were essential for Syria's stability and territorial integrity, so the sooner this happens the better.

"We are voicing this expectation of ours in the strongest terms during our contacts with both the United States and the new administration in Damascus," the source said.

INTENSIVE TALKS

US and Turkish officials have been holding "very intensive" discussions since fighters led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, launched a lightning offensive from their northwestern stronghold that deposed Assad on Dec. 8, a senior US diplomat told Reuters.

The two countries share a "common view of where things should end up", including a belief that all foreign fighters should exit Syrian territory, the diplomat said, noting Turkish negotiators "have a very high sense of urgency" to settle things.

However, the diplomat, who like some other sources requested anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations, said the talks were "hugely complex" and would take time.

Parallel talks are taking place between the US and both the SDF and HTS, Türkiye and HTS, and the SDF and HTS, officials from all sides say.

Part of a stateless ethnic group straddling Iraq, Iran, Türkiye, Armenia and Syria, Kurds had been among the few winners of the Syrian conflict, gaining control over Arab-majority areas as the US partnered with them in the campaign against ISIS. They now hold nearly a quarter of the country.

But Assad's fall has left Syrian Kurdish factions on the back foot, with Türkiye-backed armed groups gaining ground in the northeast and the country's new rulers in Damascus friendly with Ankara.

Türkiye, which provided direct support to some opposition groups against Assad, has emerged as one of the most influential power brokers in Syria since his fall. Like the US, it has designated HTS a terrorist group because of its al-Qaeda past, but Ankara is believed to have significant sway over the group.

Officials on all sides worry that failure to reach a ceasefire and longer-term political accord in the northeast could destabilize Syria as it seeks to recover from a 13-year civil war that killed hundreds of thousands, displaced millions and drew in countries including Russia, Iran and Israel.

Dozens of people in northern Syria have been reported killed since December in clashes between the Kurdish-led SDF and Türkiye’s allies, and in cross-border Turkish airstrikes.

Failure to resolve the fate of Kurdish factions in Syria could also undermine nascent efforts to end the PKK's insurgency in Türkiye.

The United Nations has warned of "dramatic consequences" for Syria and the region if a political solution is not found in the northeast.

POTENTIAL TRADE-OFFS

US support for the SDF has been a source of tension with its NATO ally, Türkiye.

Washington views the SDF as a key partner in countering ISIS, which Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned will try to use this period to re-establish capabilities in Syria. The SDF is still guarding tens of thousands of detainees linked to the group.

Erdogan said on Wednesday that Türkiye has the power to "crush" all terrorists in Syria, including ISIS and Kurdish militants.

Türkiye wants the management of camps and prisons where ISIS detainees are being held transferred to Syria's new rulers and has offered to help them. It has also demanded that the SDF expel all foreign fighters and senior PKK members from its territory and disarm the remaining members in a way it can verify.

Abdi, the SDF commander, has shown flexibility regarding some Turkish demands, telling Reuters last month that its foreign fighters, including PKK members, would leave Syria if Türkiye agrees to a ceasefire.

The PKK said in a statement to Reuters on Thursday that it would agree to leave if the SDF maintains control of the northeast or a significant role in joint leadership.

Such assurances are unlikely to satisfy Ankara at a time when the SDF is "trying to stay alive and autonomous" in Syria, Omer Onhon, Türkiye’s last ambassador to Damascus, told Reuters.

In Ankara on Wednesday, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani said the extensive US-backed SDF presence was no longer justified, and the new administration would not allow Syrian land to be a source of threats to Türkiye. Standing next to him, his Turkish counterpart, Fidan, said it was time to put anti-terror pledges into practice.

Abdi told Asharq News that he has met with Syria's de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and the two sides agreed to set up a joint military committee to decide how the SDF would integrate with the defense ministry. He described the meeting with Sharaa, who heads HTS, as positive.

Abu Qasra, the defense minister, accused SDF leaders on Sunday of "procrastinating" on the issue, saying "consolidation of all areas under the new administration ... is a right of the Syrian state."

The new leadership believes that allowing SDF fighters to continue operating as a bloc would "risk destabilization, including a coup", a ministry official told Reuters.

Abdi argued that a decentralized administration would not threaten Syria's unity, saying the SDF is not demanding the kind of federalism introduced in Iraq, where Kurds have their own regional government.

Some Syrian officials and diplomats say the SDF will likely need to relinquish control of significant territory and oil revenues, gained during the war, as part of any political settlement.

In return, Kurdish factions could be granted protections for their language and culture within a decentralized political structure, said Bassam al-Kuwatli, president of the small Syrian Liberal Party, which supports minority rights but is not involved in the talks.

A senior Syrian Kurdish source acknowledged that some such trade-offs would likely be needed but did not elaborate.

Abdi told Asharq News that the SDF was open to handing over responsibility for oil resources to the new administration, provided the wealth was distributed fairly to all provinces.

Washington has called for a "managed transition" of the SDF's role.

The US diplomat said Assad's ouster opens the door for Washington to eventually consider withdrawing its troops from Syria, though much depends on whether trusted forces like its Kurdish allies remain engaged in efforts to counter any ISIS resurgence.

Trump's return to the White House on Monday has raised hopes in Türkiye of a favorable deal, given the rapport he established with Erdogan during his first term.

Trump has spoken approvingly about Erdogan's role in Syria, calling him a "very smart guy", and said Türkiye would "hold the key" to what happens there.

"The Americans won't abandon (the SDF)," said Onhon, Türkiye’s former ambassador. "But the arrival of someone as unpredictable as Trump must worry them in a way too."