IMF: Gloomy Brexit Forecasts for UK are Coming True

Christine Lagarde, the IMF Managing Director. Stefan Rousseau/AP
Christine Lagarde, the IMF Managing Director. Stefan Rousseau/AP
TT
20

IMF: Gloomy Brexit Forecasts for UK are Coming True

Christine Lagarde, the IMF Managing Director. Stefan Rousseau/AP
Christine Lagarde, the IMF Managing Director. Stefan Rousseau/AP

The International Monetary Fund has strongly defended its gloomy forecasts for the UK after Brexit, saying pre-referendum warnings of slower growth were coming true.

IMF declared that the exit of UK from the EU is the greatest danger on its economy. In its report on Wednesday, the Fund assured that in case a progress was made in negotiations then this would reinforce trust in the British economy, and in case they failed then this might lead to an unorganized exit from EU, and therefore a collapse in European capital markets.

Since the turn of the year, Lagarde said activity had slowed notably and the UK’s recent performance was a disappointment in the light of the best showing by the global economy since the financial crash.

The IMF’s latest forecast suggests that the UK’s medium-term potential productivity growth is only 1.5, similar to 2017.

Lagarde pointed out that the British economy is affected with the electorates decision, last year, to exit the EU and the government decision to move on with the separation decision.

The Fund stressed that UK is facing uncertainty because it is beginning an ambitious mission to negotiate on the exit from the EU, warning that despite the progress achieved by the UK in talks, but there is still a risk of not reaching a final deal.

Talks include agreeing on a trade deal with the EU and negotiating on new arrangements with around 60 countries to discuss agreements in which UK was a member of during its membership in the EU.

British Prime Minister Theresa May said that UK will exert best efforts to protect the position of London as the globally biggest financial center, during talks of separation from the EU.



Saudi Arabia’s Non-Oil Industrial Sector Grows 5.3% in 2024

Saudi flags along a street in the capital, Riyadh (Reuters) 
Saudi flags along a street in the capital, Riyadh (Reuters) 
TT
20

Saudi Arabia’s Non-Oil Industrial Sector Grows 5.3% in 2024

Saudi flags along a street in the capital, Riyadh (Reuters) 
Saudi flags along a street in the capital, Riyadh (Reuters) 

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil industrial sector recorded a strong 5.3% growth in 2024, underlining the Kingdom’s ongoing progress in diversifying its economy in line with the Vision 2030 agenda. The latest figures from the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT) reveal that this growth was largely driven by manufacturing, utilities, and infrastructure development.

Despite the robust performance of the non-oil sector, overall industrial production declined by 2.3% compared to 2023. This contraction was mainly due to a 5.2% drop in oil-related activities, following the Kingdom’s adherence to OPEC+ oil production cuts. As a result, mining and quarrying shrunk by 6.8%.

Manufacturing expanded by 4.7% year-on-year, with food production up 6.2% and chemical manufacturing, including refined petroleum products, rising by 2.8%. These gains reflect increasing industrial capacity and rising demand in both domestic and export markets.

Other areas of growth included utilities and public services. Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning activities grew by 3.5%, while water supply, sewage, and waste management services posted a 1.6% increase.

Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim recently stated that non-oil activities now account for 53% of the Kingdom’s real GDP, compared to significantly lower levels before the launch of Vision 2030. He also noted a 70% increase in private investment in non-oil sectors over the same period.

The Kingdom’s non-oil exports reached SAR 515 billion (approximately $137 billion) in 2024, marking a 13% rise over 2023 and a 113% increase since 2016. Export growth spanned petrochemical and non-petrochemical products, with merchandise exports alone totaling SAR 217 billion.

According to a recent World Bank report, Saudi Arabia’s economy grew by 1.8% in 2024, up from 0.3% in 2023. While oil-sector output fell 3%, the non-oil economy expanded by 3.7%, cushioning the broader economy from energy market volatility. The World Bank forecasts continued growth, projecting a 2.8% increase in 2025 and an average of 4.6% annually through 2026 and 2027.