Iraq’s ruling Coordination Framework has been on an intriguing journey that started with the United States’ adamant rejection of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki being appointed to head a new government and that ended with President Donald Trump personally congratulating Ali al-Zaidi on his appointment as PM-designate earlier this week.
On January 27, Trump threatened to cut US support to Iraq if Maliki returned to power. After 93 days, the Shiite forces in Iraq were surprised when Trump congratulated al-Zaidi and urged him to form a government that is free of “terrorism”. He even received an invitation to visit Washington.
Iran has yet to comment on any of these developments.
Trump’s envoy to Syria Tom Barrack had telephoned al-Zaidi on Tuesday ahead of Trump’s telephone call to the PM-designate, a banker who, with Shiite consensus, has become the face of a potential and still ambiguous American deal.
Normally, pro-Iran factions in Iraq don’t let such friendly American contacts go without a fierce wave of criticism against any attempt to normalize ties with Washington, the perceived great enemy. That did not happen.
On the contrary, the hawks of the so-called “Resistance Axis” are preoccupied with giving the new PM-designate advice over including “strong” figures in his cabinet lineup to ensure its success. They have already sent him numerous possible candidates.
Al-Zaidi was named to his post just two hours after his name was floated in the media. His name appeared out of nowhere just days after commander of Iran’s Quds Force Esmail Qaani visited Baghdad. It remains to be seen if Qaani had imposed his conditions or surrendered to a deal that is beyond Iran’s control.
Al-Zaidi's designation took place as Iraq finds itself caught between the US-Iran conflict with each country trying to impose its influence over Baghdad. The appointment could have been a victory of one party against the other.
The American veto over Maliki had limited the Coordination Framework’s options and forced it into a battle of wills with Washington. With the eruption of the conflict with Iran, al-Zaidi's name was floated as a possible candidate and way out. An evident deal was reached that led to his designation and it continues to raise questions.
Observers believe that the appointment is the beginning of a broader deal that may have intrigued Trump.
Sources said that al-Zaidi did not appear out of nowhere in the Framework and that he was actually always there as a “winning card” that can be used by influential parties.
Other sources said that al-Zaidi now faces two possibilities: His proposed cabinet lineup will fail to receive the parliament’s vote of confidence, giving the Framework room to catch its breath in the political impasse and line up other options.
This is viewed as a scenario that outgoing Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani could come up with.
The second possibility would be for the lineup to win the vote of confidence and for al-Zaidi to lead a transitional phase of two years or less. Observers have suggested that early elections could be held during this period. This scenario favors influential cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.
There also lies a third possibility that al-Zaidi was indeed designated through an American deal amid rumors that the US is seeking to limit China’s influence in the region.
The way Trump congratulated al-Zaidi suggests that Washington may have won something major in return from Baghdad. Or it could mean that Iran’s influence in Iraq had gotten so weak that it allowed major players in Baghdad to seize the reins and do what was necessary, including appointing al-Zaidi, to avoid US economic sanctions that would only further isolate Iraq and Iran.
