Institute of International Finance: Global Debt Hits Record High

Institute of International Finance.
Institute of International Finance.
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Institute of International Finance: Global Debt Hits Record High

Institute of International Finance.
Institute of International Finance.

Global debt hit an all-time high of $233 trillion in the third quarter of 2017, according to Washington-based Institute of International Finance (IIF), which is a $16 trillion increase on debt levels at the end of 2016 and more than three times the size of the global economy.

The Independent newspaper reported IIF as it divided the debts as follows: non-financial companies' debt reached $68 trillion, governments around the world have $63 trillion in debt, financial institutions have $58 trillion, and households hold total debt of $44 trillion.

However, IIF warned that if interest rates rise around the world that could make many debt burdens harder to service.

Global debts exceeded the gross domestic growth (GDP) of top 100 international economies, with the US on top, followed by the UK with $7.9 trillion, the France with $5.4 trillion in debts, and Germany with $5.1 trillion.

China, Russia, South Korea and Brazil have a heavy dollar-debt repayment schedule in 2018 with the Asian superpower’s debt becoming an increasing concern for others.

However, the Express magazine focused its global debts' report on China, with a report entitled, "Made in China", which holds the biggest share of new debt in emerging markets.

The pace of debt accumulation slowed down recently with deficit rising two percentage points last year to 294 percent of GDP, compared to an average annual increase of 17 percentage points in the 2012-2016 period, said the magazine.

Despite the growing debt mountain, the IIF said on Thursday that robust economic growth meant debt-to-GDP ratios were actually declining.

The newspaper reported the International Monetary Fund's recent warnings on credit growth outpacing GDP growth, leading to a large credit overhang. The credit-to-GDP ratio is now about 25 percent, which is very high by international standards and consistent with a high probability of financial distress.

China's corporate debt has reached 165 percent of GDP and household debt has risen by 15 percentage points of GDP over the past five years and is increasingly linked to asset-price speculation.

China’s shadow banking assets grew more than 20 percent in 2016 to $9.8 trillion, equivalent to 86.5 percent of China’s gross domestic product.

"In a rising-rate environment, stronger hard currencies would pose substantial risks for some emerging markets (EM): While many emerging markets have reduced reliance on FX-denominated debts in recent years, Saudi Arabia, the Czech Republic and Turkey have seen a further buildup. At over $600 billion, FX-denominated bond issuance in EMs has been at a record pace in 2017," stated IIF's report.

With credit downgrades still outpacing upgrades in aggregate, private sector debt in Hong Kong, France, China, Switzerland, Turkey and Canada had the most evident rise since 2015.

Global debt-to-GDP ratios declined for a fourth consecutive quarter in Q3 2017. At around 318 percent, global debt-to-GDP is now 3 percentage points lower than its all-time high of 321 percent in Q3 2016.

At the same time, though, the ratio of debt-to-GDP fell for the fourth consecutive quarter as economic growth accelerated with the ratio now around 318 percent, 3 percentage points below a high set in the third quarter of 2016, according to IIF.

"A combination of factors including synchronized above-potential global growth, rising inflation (China, Turkey), and efforts to prevent a destabilizing build-up of debt (China, Canada) have all contributed to the decline," IIF analysts wrote in a note published by Bloomberg.

World’s per capita debt is more than $30,000 given United Nations calculations of the global population which reached 7.6 billion.



Syria Prepares to Launch New Currency Amid Major Challenges

Syrian Central Bank Governor Abdulkader Husrieh (X)
Syrian Central Bank Governor Abdulkader Husrieh (X)
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Syria Prepares to Launch New Currency Amid Major Challenges

Syrian Central Bank Governor Abdulkader Husrieh (X)
Syrian Central Bank Governor Abdulkader Husrieh (X)

Syria’s central bank governor, Abdulkader Husrieh, said the new Syrian pound is not merely a means of exchange but a symbol of the success of the Syrian revolution, national belonging, and confidence in the country’s ability to recover.

In a Facebook post, Husrieh said that with the launch of the new currency, Syrians were not just celebrating a banknote, but also celebrating their sovereignty and national identity, noting that many international experiences show that national currencies become strong when people rally around them, according to the Syrian Arab News Agency.

He pointed to Germany’s experience, where the introduction of the mark after the war marked the starting point of economic recovery, and to France, where the new French franc became the financial symbol of the new republic, known as the Fifth Republic.

Husrieh said the central bank would carry out its role with a clear understanding of the challenges and opportunities, while committing to responsibility, transparency, and the protection of the national currency. He added that the cornerstone remains public solidarity and trust, because a strong currency begins with the people's belief in it.

He called for turning the launch into a dignified national occasion through which Syrians express awareness, confidence, and adherence to the pound as a symbol of sovereignty and a national choice.

Husrieh added that supporting the pound is supporting the nation, and taking pride in it is a matter of pride in the future for Syrians and their children. He described the move as an opportunity for a new success following the success of the revolution in liberation and the lifting of economic sanctions that had shackled Syria’s economy for nearly fifty years.

Husrieh had recently announced that Jan. 1, 2026, would mark the launch of the new Syrian currency and the start of the exchange process for the old notes, with the exchange to be carried out through 66 companies and 1,000 designated outlets.

Restoring confidence

Political and economic researcher Bassel Kouwefi said the exchange plans, if well implemented, could serve as an entry point for rebuilding confidence in the national economy, encouraging domestic investment, and paving the way for broader reforms in the financial sector. However, he warned against failing to address the root causes of inflation and economic collapse during the previous regime's rule.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Kouwefi described currency exchange and the removal of zeros as complex economic measures.

He said their main benefits include simplifying daily transactions, reducing the volume of banknotes in circulation, boosting confidence in stability, lowering printing and transportation costs, simplifying accounting records and financial software, and reducing currency speculation driven by corruption networks seeking to undermine stability in Syria.

Kouwefi said the exchange plans, if well-executed, could help restore confidence in the macroeconomy, but stressed the challenges posed by failing to tackle the fundamental causes of past inflation and collapse, including fiscal deficits, instability, and weak production. He said a comprehensive economic and financial program was therefore essential.

He added that the process also requires strong banking infrastructure, an organized transition period, and sufficient liquidity in the new denominations.

He said these remain major challenges under current Syrian conditions, alongside the need to mitigate social impacts that could lead to public confusion, market exploitation, and difficulties for less informed segments of society.


Russia Extends Ban on Gasoline Exports Until February

Gasoline tank trucks are seen outside the Rosneft Achinsk oil refinery plant, one of the biggest Siberian fuel suppliers, near the town of Achinsk, some 188 km (117 miles) west of Krasnoyarsk, April 28, 2011. REUTERS/Ilya Naymushin
Gasoline tank trucks are seen outside the Rosneft Achinsk oil refinery plant, one of the biggest Siberian fuel suppliers, near the town of Achinsk, some 188 km (117 miles) west of Krasnoyarsk, April 28, 2011. REUTERS/Ilya Naymushin
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Russia Extends Ban on Gasoline Exports Until February

Gasoline tank trucks are seen outside the Rosneft Achinsk oil refinery plant, one of the biggest Siberian fuel suppliers, near the town of Achinsk, some 188 km (117 miles) west of Krasnoyarsk, April 28, 2011. REUTERS/Ilya Naymushin
Gasoline tank trucks are seen outside the Rosneft Achinsk oil refinery plant, one of the biggest Siberian fuel suppliers, near the town of Achinsk, some 188 km (117 miles) west of Krasnoyarsk, April 28, 2011. REUTERS/Ilya Naymushin

Russia has extended the temporary ban on gasoline and fuel exports, including producers and intermediaries, until the end of next February, the Russian news agency Interfax said, citing a government website.

“The new decree extended the temporary ban on the export of gasoline outside the country until February 28, 2026, inclusive. It will be valid for all exporters, including direct producers,” the website wrote.

The decree also extends the ban on the export of marine fuel, vacuum gas oil and other types of gas oils, including volumes purchased at exchange auctions, until 28 February 2026. In this case, the restriction will not apply to direct producers of petroleum products.

Russia introduced the measures at the end of August due to the exacerbation of the fuel crisis.

Several major refineries were attacked by drones in August and September, including Surgutneftegaz's Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery, Lukoil's Volgograd refinery and Rosneft's Samara group of refineries.

Prices for gasoline, which are tightly monitored by authorities, were up 10.2%, above general inflation, since the start of the year, with the spike in part attributed to a step up in Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.

Last October, US President Donald Trump mentioned “long lines waiting for gasoline” and said the Russian “economy is going to collapse.”

Trump said his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin should settle the war in Ukraine which was making Russia look bad.

Asked about Trump's remarks at an energy conference in Moscow, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who oversees energy and the economy for the government, said that Russia had a stable supply of gasoline.

“We have a stable domestic market supply, we see no problems in this regard,” Novak said.

“The balance is maintained between production and consumption, and we, on the part of the government and the relevant ministries, are doing everything to ensure that this remains the case.”

Russia's seaborne oil product exports fell 17.1% in September from August to 7.58 million metric tons due to less fuel production as various refineries were impacted by drone attacks, data from industry sources and Reuters calculations showed.

The economy is slowing sharply this year and the government forecasts gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 1.0% after 4.3% growth in 2024 and 4.1% growth in 2023, though the International Monetary Fund has downgraded its 2025 forecast to 0.6% from 0.9%.


Hong Kong Expects 3.2% Growth this Year, Seeks to Maintain Momentum

FILE PHOTO: Tourists relax on the waterfront in front of Victoria Harbour, with the iconic skyline buildings as a backdrop, in Hong Kong, China June 28, 2023. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Tourists relax on the waterfront in front of Victoria Harbour, with the iconic skyline buildings as a backdrop, in Hong Kong, China June 28, 2023. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu/File Photo
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Hong Kong Expects 3.2% Growth this Year, Seeks to Maintain Momentum

FILE PHOTO: Tourists relax on the waterfront in front of Victoria Harbour, with the iconic skyline buildings as a backdrop, in Hong Kong, China June 28, 2023. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Tourists relax on the waterfront in front of Victoria Harbour, with the iconic skyline buildings as a backdrop, in Hong Kong, China June 28, 2023. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu/File Photo

Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan raised his 2025 economic growth forecast to 3.2% on Sunday, saying the city would bolster its role as a financial center, innovation hub and trade center to maintain the momentum.

In February, Chan had forecast growth of between 2% and 3%.

Hong Kong, the world's biggest venue for initial public offerings this year, will lure more listings from companies in areas such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East and will actively promote internationalization ⁠of China's yuan currency, Chan said in a blog post.

The city will also focus on developing artificial intelligence and biotech to lead the global race in technology and will strengthen its role as a trade hub by helping more Chinese companies expand overseas, Reuters quoted him as saying.

"Looking into ⁠next year, Hong Kong's economy is expected to keep the good trend of growth," Chan said. "Finance, tech innovation and trade will be Hong Kong's key engines of growth as the city actively embraces China's development strategy."

Hong Kong has one of the world's best-performing stock markets this year, with the Hang Seng Index up 30%.

Resilient exports, brisk fixed-asset investment and recovering consumption have helped Hong Kong's growth beat forecast, Chan said.

To ⁠bolster its status as a financial center, Hong Kong will strengthen the competitiveness of its stock market and develop areas including bonds, money market, fintech, commodities and gold trading, he said.

In terms of innovation, Hong Kong will develop AI into a "core industry,” as the technology will define economies' competitiveness and reshape the global economic landscape, he said.

The city is also establishing a center for cross-border supply chain management and trade finance, to better help Chinese companies expand offshore, Chan said.