Institute of International Finance: Global Debt Hits Record High

Institute of International Finance.
Institute of International Finance.
TT

Institute of International Finance: Global Debt Hits Record High

Institute of International Finance.
Institute of International Finance.

Global debt hit an all-time high of $233 trillion in the third quarter of 2017, according to Washington-based Institute of International Finance (IIF), which is a $16 trillion increase on debt levels at the end of 2016 and more than three times the size of the global economy.

The Independent newspaper reported IIF as it divided the debts as follows: non-financial companies' debt reached $68 trillion, governments around the world have $63 trillion in debt, financial institutions have $58 trillion, and households hold total debt of $44 trillion.

However, IIF warned that if interest rates rise around the world that could make many debt burdens harder to service.

Global debts exceeded the gross domestic growth (GDP) of top 100 international economies, with the US on top, followed by the UK with $7.9 trillion, the France with $5.4 trillion in debts, and Germany with $5.1 trillion.

China, Russia, South Korea and Brazil have a heavy dollar-debt repayment schedule in 2018 with the Asian superpower’s debt becoming an increasing concern for others.

However, the Express magazine focused its global debts' report on China, with a report entitled, "Made in China", which holds the biggest share of new debt in emerging markets.

The pace of debt accumulation slowed down recently with deficit rising two percentage points last year to 294 percent of GDP, compared to an average annual increase of 17 percentage points in the 2012-2016 period, said the magazine.

Despite the growing debt mountain, the IIF said on Thursday that robust economic growth meant debt-to-GDP ratios were actually declining.

The newspaper reported the International Monetary Fund's recent warnings on credit growth outpacing GDP growth, leading to a large credit overhang. The credit-to-GDP ratio is now about 25 percent, which is very high by international standards and consistent with a high probability of financial distress.

China's corporate debt has reached 165 percent of GDP and household debt has risen by 15 percentage points of GDP over the past five years and is increasingly linked to asset-price speculation.

China’s shadow banking assets grew more than 20 percent in 2016 to $9.8 trillion, equivalent to 86.5 percent of China’s gross domestic product.

"In a rising-rate environment, stronger hard currencies would pose substantial risks for some emerging markets (EM): While many emerging markets have reduced reliance on FX-denominated debts in recent years, Saudi Arabia, the Czech Republic and Turkey have seen a further buildup. At over $600 billion, FX-denominated bond issuance in EMs has been at a record pace in 2017," stated IIF's report.

With credit downgrades still outpacing upgrades in aggregate, private sector debt in Hong Kong, France, China, Switzerland, Turkey and Canada had the most evident rise since 2015.

Global debt-to-GDP ratios declined for a fourth consecutive quarter in Q3 2017. At around 318 percent, global debt-to-GDP is now 3 percentage points lower than its all-time high of 321 percent in Q3 2016.

At the same time, though, the ratio of debt-to-GDP fell for the fourth consecutive quarter as economic growth accelerated with the ratio now around 318 percent, 3 percentage points below a high set in the third quarter of 2016, according to IIF.

"A combination of factors including synchronized above-potential global growth, rising inflation (China, Turkey), and efforts to prevent a destabilizing build-up of debt (China, Canada) have all contributed to the decline," IIF analysts wrote in a note published by Bloomberg.

World’s per capita debt is more than $30,000 given United Nations calculations of the global population which reached 7.6 billion.



Dollar Resumes Upward Trend, Euro Hits Lowest since Nov 2022

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
TT

Dollar Resumes Upward Trend, Euro Hits Lowest since Nov 2022

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The dollar hit new multi-month highs against the euro and the pound on Thursday, the first day of 2025 trading, as it built on last year's strong gains on expectations US interest rates will remain high relative to peers.

The euro fell to as low as $1.0314, its lowest since November 2022, down around 0.3% on the day. It is now down nearly 8% since its late September highs above $1.12, one major victim of the dollar's recent surge.

Traders anticipate deep interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank in 2025, with markets pricing in at least four 25 basis point cuts, while not being certain of even two such moves from the US Federal Reserve, Reuters reported.

The dollar was hitting milestones across the board and the pound was last down 0.65% at $1.2443, its lowest since April, with its fall accelerating after it broke through resistance around $1.2475.

"It's more of the same at the start of the new calendar year with the dollar continuing to extend its advances in anticipation of Trump putting in place friendly policies at the start of his term," said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.

US President-elect Donald Trump's policies are widely expected to not only boost growth but also add to upward price pressure. That will lead to a Fed cautious about cutting rates too much further, in turn underpinning US Treasury yields and boost dollar demand.

A weaker growth outlook outside the US, conflict in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war have also added to demand for the dollar.

The dollar also reversed an early loss on Thursday to climb against the Japanese yen, and was last up 0.17% at 157.26.

It reached a five-month high above 158 yen in late December, potentially putting pressure on the Bank of Japan, which is expected to raise interest rates early this year, but possibly not immediately.

"If dollar/yen were to break above 160 ahead of the next BOJ meeting, that could be a catalyst for the BOJ to hike in January rather than wait until March," said Hardman.

"Though for now markets are leaning towards March after the dovish comments from (governor Kazuo) Ueda at his last press conference."

Even those who are more cautious about sustained dollar strength think it could take a long time to play out.

"The dollar may be vulnerable – but only if the US data confound market expectations that the Fed doesn’t cut rates more than once in the first half of this year, and not by more than 50bp in the whole of 2025," said Kit Juckes chief FX strategist at Societe Generale in a note.

"There's a good chance of that happening, but it seems very unlikely that cracks in US growth will appear early in the year – hence my preference for taking any bearish dollar thoughts with me into hibernation until the weather improves."

China's yuan languished at 14-month lows as worries about the health of the world's second-biggest economy, the prospect of US import tariffs from the Trump administration and sliding local yields weighed on investor sentiment.

Elsewhere, the Swiss franc, another victim of the recent dollar strength, gave back early gains to last trade flat at 0.90755 per dollar.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars, however, managed to break away from two-year lows touched on Tuesday. The Aussie was 0.36% higher at $0.6215 having dropped 9% in 2024, its weakest yearly performance since 2018.

The kiwi rose 0.47% to $0.5614.