Institute of International Finance: Global Debt Hits Record High

Institute of International Finance.
Institute of International Finance.
TT

Institute of International Finance: Global Debt Hits Record High

Institute of International Finance.
Institute of International Finance.

Global debt hit an all-time high of $233 trillion in the third quarter of 2017, according to Washington-based Institute of International Finance (IIF), which is a $16 trillion increase on debt levels at the end of 2016 and more than three times the size of the global economy.

The Independent newspaper reported IIF as it divided the debts as follows: non-financial companies' debt reached $68 trillion, governments around the world have $63 trillion in debt, financial institutions have $58 trillion, and households hold total debt of $44 trillion.

However, IIF warned that if interest rates rise around the world that could make many debt burdens harder to service.

Global debts exceeded the gross domestic growth (GDP) of top 100 international economies, with the US on top, followed by the UK with $7.9 trillion, the France with $5.4 trillion in debts, and Germany with $5.1 trillion.

China, Russia, South Korea and Brazil have a heavy dollar-debt repayment schedule in 2018 with the Asian superpower’s debt becoming an increasing concern for others.

However, the Express magazine focused its global debts' report on China, with a report entitled, "Made in China", which holds the biggest share of new debt in emerging markets.

The pace of debt accumulation slowed down recently with deficit rising two percentage points last year to 294 percent of GDP, compared to an average annual increase of 17 percentage points in the 2012-2016 period, said the magazine.

Despite the growing debt mountain, the IIF said on Thursday that robust economic growth meant debt-to-GDP ratios were actually declining.

The newspaper reported the International Monetary Fund's recent warnings on credit growth outpacing GDP growth, leading to a large credit overhang. The credit-to-GDP ratio is now about 25 percent, which is very high by international standards and consistent with a high probability of financial distress.

China's corporate debt has reached 165 percent of GDP and household debt has risen by 15 percentage points of GDP over the past five years and is increasingly linked to asset-price speculation.

China’s shadow banking assets grew more than 20 percent in 2016 to $9.8 trillion, equivalent to 86.5 percent of China’s gross domestic product.

"In a rising-rate environment, stronger hard currencies would pose substantial risks for some emerging markets (EM): While many emerging markets have reduced reliance on FX-denominated debts in recent years, Saudi Arabia, the Czech Republic and Turkey have seen a further buildup. At over $600 billion, FX-denominated bond issuance in EMs has been at a record pace in 2017," stated IIF's report.

With credit downgrades still outpacing upgrades in aggregate, private sector debt in Hong Kong, France, China, Switzerland, Turkey and Canada had the most evident rise since 2015.

Global debt-to-GDP ratios declined for a fourth consecutive quarter in Q3 2017. At around 318 percent, global debt-to-GDP is now 3 percentage points lower than its all-time high of 321 percent in Q3 2016.

At the same time, though, the ratio of debt-to-GDP fell for the fourth consecutive quarter as economic growth accelerated with the ratio now around 318 percent, 3 percentage points below a high set in the third quarter of 2016, according to IIF.

"A combination of factors including synchronized above-potential global growth, rising inflation (China, Turkey), and efforts to prevent a destabilizing build-up of debt (China, Canada) have all contributed to the decline," IIF analysts wrote in a note published by Bloomberg.

World’s per capita debt is more than $30,000 given United Nations calculations of the global population which reached 7.6 billion.



Oil Prices Set to End Week over 3% Lower as Supply Risks Ease

FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo
TT

Oil Prices Set to End Week over 3% Lower as Supply Risks Ease

FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo

Oil prices fell on Friday, heading for a weekly drop of more than 3%, as concerns over supply risks from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict eased, alleviating earlier disruption fears.
Brent crude futures fell 55 cents, or 0.8%, to $72.73 a barrel by 0758 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $69.52, down 20 cents, or 0.3%, compared with Wednesday's closing price.
On a weekly basis, Brent futures were down 3.3% and the U.S. WTI benchmark was trading 3.8% lower.
Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah traded accusations on Thursday over alleged violations of their ceasefire that came into effect the day before. The deal had at first appeared to alleviate the potential for supply disruption from a broader conflict that had led to a risk premium for oil.
Oil supplies from the Middle East, though, have been largely unaffected during Israel's parallel conflicts with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, delayed its next policy meeting to Dec. 5 from Dec. 1 to avoid a scheduling conflict. OPEC+ is expected to further extend its production cuts at the meeting.
BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, downgraded its Brent price forecast on Friday to $76/bbl in 2025 from $78/bbl previously, citing a "bearish fundamental outlook, ongoing weakness in oil market sentiment and the downside pressure on prices we expect to accrue under Trump."
"Although we expect the OPEC+ group will opt to roll-over the existing cuts into the new year, this will not be sufficient to fully erase the production glut we forecast for next year," BMI analysts said in a note.
Also on Thursday, Russia struck Ukrainian energy facilities for the second time this month. ANZ analysts said the attack risked retaliation that could affect Russian oil supply.
Iran told a UN nuclear watchdog it would install more than 6,000 additional uranium-enriching centrifuges at its enrichment plants, a confidential report by the watchdog said on Thursday.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs have said Iranian supply could drop by as much as 1 million barrels per day in the first half of next year if Western powers tighten sanctions enforcement on its crude oil output.