Exclusive - Can ISIS Threaten the World Cup in Russia?

Police officers walk past the official mascot for the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia, Zabivaka, March 31, 2018. (Reuters)
Police officers walk past the official mascot for the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia, Zabivaka, March 31, 2018. (Reuters)
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Exclusive - Can ISIS Threaten the World Cup in Russia?

Police officers walk past the official mascot for the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia, Zabivaka, March 31, 2018. (Reuters)
Police officers walk past the official mascot for the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia, Zabivaka, March 31, 2018. (Reuters)

It appears that the battle against the terrorist ISIS group and its affiliates will not end any time soon. The group has demonstrated that it can change its tactics and adapt in new environments, making it increasingly difficult to defeat it.

The latest threat posed by ISIS is related to the FIFA World Cup, hosted by Russia next month. The event will take place between June 14 and July 15 and will cover 11 cities.

All signs indicate that the terrorists are seeking to carry out an attack in Russia, raising many questions over why they would want to shift their battle there.

Has ISIS had a hand in recent terrorist attacks in Russia and some neighboring countries?

The alarm bells over ISIS staging an attack during the World Cup rang when the group circulated a poster with a direct threat to Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying: “You will pay the price for killing Muslims.” The poster showed an armed ISIS member against the backdrop of a major explosion at a crowded football stadium. Putin appeared in the corner of the poster, with a red target sign aimed at him.

We here must ask why this threat was specifically made against Putin and is this the first time?

It is understandable for ISIS to consider the Russian president as its major enemy given that Moscow’s military intervention in Syria was a decisive factor in shifting the battle in favor of the regime. The advanced Russian weapons used in the war-torn country have also led to major losses in ISIS ranks, as opposed to the lesser defeats they were dealt by the US-backed Kurdish forces.

Can ISIS’ revenge against Russia take place in the summer of 2018?

The above-mentioned poster was not the first aimed at Russia. Its “Wafa” media firm had in October used the image of Argentine football superstar Lionel Messi to promote its terrorist propaganda against Russia. It showed Messi crying blood tears behind bars. Written on the poster was a threat: “Fair terrorism. You are fighting a country that does not know the meaning of defeat.”

Another poster showed an ISIS member at a Russian football stadium with a statement, written in Russian and Arabic, saying: “Wait for us.”

Some have wondered why Russia would be targeted during the World Cup, given that an attack would leave scores of victims from not just Russia, but across the globe.

Some believe that succeeding in carrying out an attack would give the terrorists a massive propaganda boost and bolster its media image that has been weakened given the losses in Iraq and Syria.

The participation of the Saudi Arabian and Iranian national teams in the World Cup could be seen as added motivation for ISIS to attack Russia, said a report released by Britain’s IHS Markit.

The compilers of the report overlooked the fact that Egypt is also competing in the tournament. Egypt has since February been carrying out a major security operation against ISIS in the Sinai region. In recent days, the military and security forces eliminated the group’s second-in-command in Sinai, Nasser Abou Zaqoum, which could be a motive for the terrorists to take their revenge against Egypt and its fans in Russia.

Russia has not been spared ISIS attacks in the past, with the latest assault taking place in February. The group claimed responsibility for the attack against a Dagestan church that left five people dead. In December, the group claimed responsibility for an attack against a supermarket in St. Petersburg that wounded 13 shoppers. In August, ISIS claimed a stabbing attack in Surgut that injured eight people.

A cause for concern for Russian authorities is the extent of ISIS’ reach in the country as demonstrated by its attack in April 2017 against a security service bureau in Khabarovsk that left two people dead.

ISIS attacks against Russia date back to 2015, making it evident that the World Cup could indeed be threatened by the group. The security forces in the country are taking its threats seriously, demonstrated in an announcement days ago that they had arrested a pro-ISIS group that was plotting an attack in Rostov. The security forces confiscated during their raid on the cell several weapons and explosives, which were ready to be set off. Media reports said that instructions for the cell to carry out its attack came from Syria.

Is there a chance to save the World Cup from ISIS, which has, without a doubt, been planning to carry out an attack in Russia?

Head of the Russian Federal Security Service Alexander Bortnikov recently confirmed that ISIS terrorists will be seeking to target the World Cup, especially since several of those who were defeated in Syria and Iraq have headed to former Soviet republics that neighbor Russia.

This fear was backed with alarming figures that showed some 4,500 Russians had joined ISIS, while 20,000 people from neighboring countries are suspected of involvement with extremist religious groups.

Russia is not alone in its concerns over ISIS. European countries share its fears given that droves of its people will be heading to the tournament. British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson had recently traveled to Moscow for talks with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to discuss various issues, including security at the World Cup.

In Russia, meanwhile, the Interior Ministry will seek to boost its security measures through establishing new police units to ensure the safety of the fans.



Gemayel to Asharq Al-Awsat: Khaddam was Assad’s Stick to Apply Pressure

Relations between Gemayel and Khaddam were highly tense (Getty)
Relations between Gemayel and Khaddam were highly tense (Getty)
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Gemayel to Asharq Al-Awsat: Khaddam was Assad’s Stick to Apply Pressure

Relations between Gemayel and Khaddam were highly tense (Getty)
Relations between Gemayel and Khaddam were highly tense (Getty)

Late Syrian President Hafez al-Assad was a masterful negotiator, fiercely protective of his image and reputation. He was known for exhausting his guests with lengthy detours into history before addressing the substance of any talks.

Assad had an exceptional ability to restrain his anger, circling around an issue before striking again — often with calculated patience.

He avoided coarse language, allowing resentments to speak for themselves, but he never forgave those he believed had tried to derail his vision. Among them, according to accounts, were Yasser Arafat, Kamal Jumblatt, Bashir Gemayel, Amine Gemayel, and Samir Geagea.

In dealing with rivals and pressuring opponents, Assad often relied on a trusted enforcer: Abdel Halim Khaddam, his long-time foreign minister and later vice president. In the second part of his interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, former Lebanese President Amine Gemayel said Khaddam was Assad’s “stick,” used to assert control.

Many Lebanese politicians believed Khaddam’s bluntness was not personal, but rather a reflection of an official mandate from his mentor.

Assad rarely issued direct threats. Instead, he preferred subtle intimidation — as when he told Gemayel that his aides had once suggested blowing up President Anwar Sadat’s plane to prevent him from reaching Jerusalem.

Khaddam, the late Syrian strongman’s long-serving envoy, was known for humiliating both allies and foes who dared defy Damascus’ directives. His tactics were often unsettling — deliberately designed to leave visitors unnerved and pliant by the time they reached Assad’s office.

In a conversation in Paris during his retirement, Khaddam defended his hardline methods, saying they were not meant to insult but to prevent potentially dangerous confrontations. “The aim was to avoid escalation that could lead to security agencies taking over, which might have resulted in worse outcomes,” he said.

In the same meeting, Khaddam accused former Lebanese President Amine Gemayel of obstructing a political solution in Lebanon, calling him “hesitant and suspicious.”

He also acknowledged Assad was caught off guard when the Tripartite Agreement collapsed. The Syrian leader, Khaddam said, had not believed anyone in Lebanon would openly defy Syria — or the other Lebanese factions who had signed the accord.

“President Assad had many cards to play. President Sarkis had none,” recalled former Lebanese Foreign Minister Fouad Boutros, reflecting on the stark imbalance between Syria and Lebanon during Elias Sarkis’s presidency.

Assad, he said, had the power to topple or paralyze the Lebanese government before Sarkis even returned to Beirut. “Sarkis had no leverage over Assad,” Boutros noted. “But while Sarkis often showed flexibility, he would stand firm when asked to compromise Lebanon’s core principles.”

Boutros, who played a key role in Lebanon’s diplomacy during the civil war, said he had to exercise utmost restraint to keep Khaddam — Syria’s often abrasive envoy — from derailing talks with personal attacks or inflammatory language.

The dynamic, he suggested, was not unique to Sarkis. It also echoed the later, uneasy relationship between Gemayel and Assad.

Gemayel recalled a cold and confrontational relationship with Khaddam, describing him as “the stick and the poison” used by Assad to pressure Beirut into submission.

“There was no warmth between us from the beginning,” Gemayel told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“Khaddam used underhanded tactics to undermine the presidency and sow division within my team. While President Assad treated me with respect and politeness, he needed someone to apply pressure — and that was Khaddam,” he added.

Gemayel said Khaddam was behind all the pressure campaigns Syria waged against him — all with Assad’s full knowledge. “Assad played the courteous statesman. Khaddam handled the dirty work. Syria wanted me to sign agreements harmful to Lebanon’s interests, and Khaddam was the one tasked with forcing my hand.”

Despite Khaddam’s harsh demeanor, Gemayel said he never allowed him to overstep.

“I kept him in check. He didn’t dare cross the line with me. We were once in a meeting with President Assad, and Khaddam had been spreading ridiculous rumors beforehand. When he spoke up, I turned to Assad and said: ‘Mr. President, we have a problem with Khaddam. Please ask him to stop acting like a spy when dealing with us.’”

Khaddam, Gemayel said, tried to intimidate many Lebanese politicians — but not him.

“He was rude, even insolent to the point of absurdity. But he knew that if he said anything out of line with me, I would respond immediately.”

Assad’s Subtle Control and the Language of Minorities

Assad understood early on the fragility of Lebanon’s sectarian makeup. To him, the country was a meeting place for minorities — one that always needed an external patron to manage its wars and truces. He allowed for limited victories, but never total defeat, ensuring that no side could do without Syria’s oversight.

Assad sought to rule Syria indefinitely, with Lebanon as a backyard extension of his regime. Yet unlike his brother Rifaat, he avoided openly sectarian rhetoric or calls for partition. Rifaat, according to Gemayel, once suggested dividing both Syria and Lebanon along sectarian lines during a conversation with Lebanese leaders Walid Jumblatt and Marwan Hamadeh.

When asked whether he ever felt his dialogue with Assad was, at its core, a conversation between an Alawite and a Maronite, Gemayel replied: “No — that was Rifaat’s language. He used to say minorities must come together and show solidarity. But that narrative was never pushed by President Assad or his inner circle. It was always tailored to serve their own agenda.”

Assad’s political strategy was built on gathering leverage — and minority groups were central to that plan. His ties with Lebanon’s Druze community, and his clash with Druze leader Kamal Jumblatt, fit squarely within this framework. Assad relied on Syria’s own Druze population, as well as the Christian minority, to tighten his grip on the country’s diverse communities and align them under the banner of his regime.

“Assad had a firm hold on the minorities,” Gemayel said, adding that “he brought them all together to make them part of the Syrian system.”

Tensions between Syria’s Alawite leadership and the country’s Sunni majority were well known, Gemayel added, particularly through the candid rhetoric of Assad’s brother, Rifaat.

“Rifaat was open about the hostility between Alawites and Sunnis,” Gemayel said. “In his conversations with us, it was clear. But with President Assad, there was no visible sign of that. What lay beneath the surface, only God knows — but in our dealings with him, we never felt it.”

Gemayel Dismisses Reports of a Syria-Lebanon Confederation Proposal

Asked about longstanding claims that former Lebanese President Camille Chamoun had once proposed a confederation between Lebanon and Syria to Hafez al-Assad, Gemayel was quick to reject the idea.

“That’s absolutely not true,” he said. “President Chamoun would never have made such a proposal. A lot of things were said at the time. There were even reports that US envoy Dean Brown had suggested relocating Lebanon’s Christians to California — all of it nonsense, poetic talk with no grounding in reality.”

Gemayel also addressed one of the most controversial moments in US diplomacy during Lebanon’s 1988 presidential crisis: the phrase reportedly used by US envoy Richard Murphy — “Mikhael Daher or chaos.”

Daher, a Christian MP close to Damascus, had been floated as the only candidate acceptable to both Syria and the United States.

But Washington later distanced itself from the deal. The episode, Gemayel said, underscored a period in which American pressure aligned more with Syrian — and by extension, Israeli — interests, leaving Lebanon’s sovereignty hanging in the balance.

Gemayel confirmed that US envoy Richard Murphy did indeed issue the stark ultimatum in 1988. The phrase, which became emblematic of foreign interference in Lebanon’s presidential crisis, reflected what Gemayel described as Washington’s unwillingness to confront Damascus — despite acknowledging its destabilizing role in Lebanon.

“Yes, Murphy said it,” Gemayel affirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat.

“The Americans had a problem — they wanted Syria, and they didn’t. They knew Syria was playing a destructive role in Lebanon, but they didn’t want to challenge it. They kept trying to find common ground with Syria, not with us.”

According to Gemayel, the US saw Daher — a respected Christian parliamentarian close to Damascus — as a palatable compromise. “They thought Daher was a respectable figure who might be acceptable to the Lebanese, so they went along with Syria’s choice,” he said.

Washington, he added, had consistently prioritized pragmatism over principle in Lebanon, often aligning with whichever side could deliver results — even if it came at Beirut’s expense.

“It was the same with the May 17 Agreement with Israel,” Gemayel said, referring to the short-lived 1983 accord.

“The US couldn't pressure Israel, so Lebanon had to pay. And they couldn’t pressure Syria either — Syria was stubborn, had resources, and they didn’t want a confrontation. So they kept trying to sell us solutions that weren’t in Lebanon’s interest.”

“The Americans were always looking for the quickest deal,” he added. “They wanted to please both Syria and Israel. With Syria, it was clear — they didn’t want to upset Assad, because they knew who held the real power in Lebanon.”

Gemayel said that while he personally held the reins in decision-making and negotiations with Syria during his time in office, several close advisers and intermediaries played essential roles in laying the groundwork for dialogue with Damascus.

“The relationship and final decisions were in my hands,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“I was the one doing the actual negotiating. But when it came to preparation, the late Jean Obeid played a very valuable role. He was intelligent, committed to Lebanon’s interests, and had close ties with the Syrians. He couldn’t get everything done, but he managed to ease certain issues,” said Gemayel.

Gemayel also credited Eli Salem, another aide, for navigating delicate talks with Syrian officials — particularly with Khaddam.

“Salem had a knack for getting through on specific points,” Gemayel said. “He had good chemistry with Khaddam, and that helped, especially since Khaddam and I didn’t get along.”

One figure who unexpectedly played a constructive role, according to Gemayel, was Brigadier General Jamil al-Sayyed, then an intelligence officer stationed in Lebanon’s eastern Bekaa Valley.

“You may be surprised,” he said, “but Jamil al-Sayyed was very helpful. Whenever I was heading to Damascus, I would stop in the Bekaa to meet him. He gave me very precise insights into what was happening at the Syrian presidential palace and the broader picture in Damascus. He was well-informed, sincere, and provided intelligence that wasn’t widely available — information that truly benefited Lebanon.”

Asked whether Syria was uneasy about the role of veteran journalist and diplomat Ghassan Tueni in his administration, Gemayel said the Syrians had little affection for him.

“There was never any warmth toward Ghassan,” he said. “He came with me to Syria just once, and it was clear there was tension. Whenever he was present, things got heated. Ghassan and Khaddam were like a ping-pong match — constantly hitting the ball back and forth.”

The friction, Gemayel explained, stemmed in large part from Tueni’s association with An-Nahar, the Beirut daily he helped lead, which often published sharp criticism of Syria.

“Syria never appreciated An-Nahar,” Gemayel said. “Even if Ghassan tried to distance himself from specific articles, the content was out there for everyone to see — and the Syrians didn’t forget it.”