Sadr’s ‘Paternal’ Government Stumbles over Iraqi Politics

Head of Iraq's Sadr movement Moqtada al-Sadr. (Getty Images)
Head of Iraq's Sadr movement Moqtada al-Sadr. (Getty Images)
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Sadr’s ‘Paternal’ Government Stumbles over Iraqi Politics

Head of Iraq's Sadr movement Moqtada al-Sadr. (Getty Images)
Head of Iraq's Sadr movement Moqtada al-Sadr. (Getty Images)

In wake of his shock victory in the Iraqi parliamentary elections, Sadrist movement leader Moqtada al-Sadr began receiving in Baghdad numerous political leaders, notably Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi and Fatah alliance chief Hadi al-Ameri, in an attempt to forge an alliance at the new legislature.

Ameri came in second in the elections and Abadi third.

Sadr formed a negotiating delegation, headed by senior Sadrist leader and former Labor Minister Nasser al-Rabihi, to hold talks with all parties in order to form the largest parliamentary bloc.

This will precede the formation of what Sadr dubbed a “paternal government”.

“Sadr emphasized the need to speed up the formation of a paternal government as soon as possible so that it could begin servicing the nation,” read a statement from Sadr’s office.

The shape and spirit of the new government should be a “national” decision and inclusive of all winning blocs, the statement added.

But no clear explanation or detail was offered by any official about Sadr’s vision for the paternal government, save for it being all-inclusive.

This inclusiveness stands in stark contrast to Sadr’s reform uprising in 2015 and 2016. Today, he finds himself forced into becoming part of one regional-international camp that would inevitably lead to distance growing between him and another.

The conflict between rival camps is now the main factor in the current political maneuvering in Iraq, while programs and projects that were touted before the elections have taken a backseat.

Sadr won 54 seats in parliament, Ameri’s alliance won 47 seats, Abadi’s Nasr (Victory) coalition 42 seats, former PM Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law won 25 and Ammar Hakim’s Hikma movement won 22.

Although the above main Shiite political blocs are enough to forge the largest alliance in parliament, with 165 out of 328 seats, obstacles remain in ensuring that all components in Iraq, such as Kurds and Sunnis, are represented.

Integrating these minorities has taken a backseat to sectarian and ethnic disputes and calculations. These disputes have proven to be obstacles and sources of conflict in Iraq.

Given this failure, political forces have started to propose alternate approaches for parliamentary supremacy, such as establishing concepts like “political majority,” “national majority,” and, finally, the Sadr-styled “paternal government” - the latest attempt to brand and promote his political orientation in both national and Shiite arenas.

“Political majority is still the best option compared to previous experiences, which were based on quotas and consensual rule that courted American-Iranian approval, but proved to be failures,” independent Shiite politician Izzat Shabandar told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Despite the lack of clarity over the government that Sadr is now promoting, Shabandar believed that “the nationalist views expressed by him, which show disdain for sectarianism, happen to coincide with the political majority project as a national project.”

“This majority will serve as the first building block in Iraq's political and economic development.”



Israel’s Retaliatory Responses to Houthis Must Begin by Drawing Intelligence Plan

A person inspects damage at the site where a projectile fired from Yemen landed in Tel Aviv on December 21, 2024 (EPA)
A person inspects damage at the site where a projectile fired from Yemen landed in Tel Aviv on December 21, 2024 (EPA)
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Israel’s Retaliatory Responses to Houthis Must Begin by Drawing Intelligence Plan

A person inspects damage at the site where a projectile fired from Yemen landed in Tel Aviv on December 21, 2024 (EPA)
A person inspects damage at the site where a projectile fired from Yemen landed in Tel Aviv on December 21, 2024 (EPA)

Israel is considering options to respond to repeated attacks fired from Yemen in the past few days, the latest of which was a Houthi missile strike that injured more than a dozen people in Tel Aviv.
But military experts say Israel should first consider an intelligence plan for confronting the new front after it faced significant difficulties in both defending against and responding to the Houthi attacks.
On Saturday morning, Houthis launched a missile that triggered sirens throughout central Israel at 3:44 am. It was the second attack since Thursday.
Israel's military said the projectile landed in Tel Aviv's southern Jaffa area, adding that attempts to intercept a missile from Yemen failed.
“The incident is still being thoroughly investigated,” the army said, adding that following initial investigations by the Israeli Air Force and Home Front Command, “some of the conclusions have already been implemented, both regarding interception and early warning.”
Israeli military experts say the recent Houthi attacks have revealed serious security gaps in Israel's air defense systems.
“The pressing question now is why none of the other of Israel’s air defense layers managed to intercept the warhead,” wrote Yedioth Ahronoth's Ron Ben-Yishai. “The likely explanation is the late detection and the flat trajectory, which prevented the operation of all available defense apparatus.”
He said these incidents might expose a critical vulnerability in the army’s air defense system protecting Israel’s civilian and military home front.
According to Ben-Yishai, two main reasons might explain Saturday’s interception failure.
The first is that the missile was launched in a “flattened” ballistic trajectory, possibly from an unexpected direction.
As a result, Israeli defenses may not have identified it in time, leading to its late discovery and insufficient time for interceptors to operate.
He said the second, and more likely scenario is that Iran has developed a maneuverable warhead.
Such a warhead separates from the missile during the final third of its trajectory and maneuvers mid-flight—executing pre-programmed course changes—to hit its designated target, he wrote.
And while Israel has launched initial investigations into the failure of Israeli defense systems to intercept the missiles, it is now examining the nature, date and location of its response.
When Houthis launched their first missile attack on Israel last Thursday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned them, saying, “The Houthis will learn the hard way.”
But Israeli political analyst Avi Ashkenazi wrote in the Maariv newspaper that Israel should look at reality with open eyes and say out loud that it cannot deal with the Houthi threat from Yemen, and has failed to face them.
Last Thursday, 14 Israeli Air Force fighter jets, alongside refuelers and spy planes, flew some 2,000 kilometers and dropped over 60 munitions on Houthi “military targets” along Yemen’s western coast and near the capital Sanaa.
The targets included fuel and oil depots, two power stations, and eight tugboats used at the Houthi-controlled ports.
But the Maariv newspaper warned about the increasing involvement of Iran in supporting the Houthi forces.
“Iran has invested more in the Houthis in recent weeks following the collapse of the Shiite axis, making the Houthi movement a leader of this axis,” the newspaper noted.
Underscoring the failures of Israel’s air defense systems, Maariv said the “Arrow” missile defense system, Israel's main line of defense against ballistic missiles, had failed four times in a row to intercept missiles, including three launched from Yemen and one from Lebanon.
Yedioth Ahronoth's Ben-Yishai also warned that the threat posed by maneuvering warheads on Iran's heavy, long-range missiles would become existential for Israel should Iran succeed in developing nuclear warheads for these missiles.
Meanwhile, Israel’s Channel 12 said that in recent months, the Middle East has changed beyond recognition.
The channel said that for the first time in more than half a century, a direct and threat-free air corridor has been opened to Iran through the Middle East. Israel will benefit from this corridor to launch almost daily attacks on the border crossings between Syria and Lebanon, it said.
Channel 12 also reported that according to the Israeli military, the new threat-free corridor will help Israel launch a future attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
“From Israel's perspective, the fall of the Assad regime and the collapse of the Iranian ring of fire are changing the balance of power in the Middle East,” the report added.