Moody’s Slashes Forecast for Turkey’s 2018 Economic Growth

Moody's Sign  - REUTERS
Moody's Sign - REUTERS
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Moody’s Slashes Forecast for Turkey’s 2018 Economic Growth

Moody's Sign  - REUTERS
Moody's Sign - REUTERS

International credit rating agency Moody’s has lowered Turkey’s growth forecast for 2018 from 4 percent to 2.5 percent on the grounds of increasing oil prices and loss of value in the Turkish Lira.

The rating agency has emphasized that this was influenced by the statements made by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan regarding monetary policies and measures which he will take after presidential and parliamentary elections taking place on 24 June.

The decision to lower Turkey's growth forecast, which hit 7.4 percent last year, came after Standard & Poor's and Fitch downgraded Turkish sovereign debt rate for similar reasons.

Earlier in May, S & P cut the country's foreign currency sovereign credit rating to 'BB-/B' from 'BB/B' but with a stable outlook.

"We are downgrading Turkey because of what we view as increasing macroeconomic imbalances," the agency said in a statement.

Also, the central bank raised its 2018 inflation forecast to 8.4 percent from 7.9 percent, with the year-end inflation forecast for 2019 remained unchanged at 6.5 percent.



Gulf Stock Markets Slip Amid Escalating Iran-Israel Conflict and Fed Policy Uncertainty

Traders monitor stock information displayed on screens at the Qatar Stock Exchange. (Reuters)
Traders monitor stock information displayed on screens at the Qatar Stock Exchange. (Reuters)
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Gulf Stock Markets Slip Amid Escalating Iran-Israel Conflict and Fed Policy Uncertainty

Traders monitor stock information displayed on screens at the Qatar Stock Exchange. (Reuters)
Traders monitor stock information displayed on screens at the Qatar Stock Exchange. (Reuters)

Major stock markets across the Gulf declined on Tuesday, as heightened geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel weighed on investor sentiment and fueled concerns over regional stability. Investors also remained on edge ahead of a key interest rate decision by the US Federal Reserve.

Reports from Iranian state media described a series of explosions and intense anti-aircraft fire lighting up the skies over Tehran. Simultaneously, air raid sirens sounded in Tel Aviv following a barrage of Iranian missile launches.

Amid the growing tensions, US President Donald Trump, speaking after departing early from the G7 summit in Canada, urged civilians to evacuate the Iranian capital.

At the same time, markets are closely watching developments in Washington, where the Federal Reserve is set to begin a two-day policy meeting. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but investors are eagerly awaiting signals from Chair Jerome Powell on the future path of monetary policy, particularly any indications of upcoming rate cuts to support a slowing global economy.

Against this backdrop, Gulf equity markets ended the day mixed. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark Tadawul All Share Index slipped 0.41%, while the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange lost 0.51%. Dubai’s main index was down 0.64%.

Other markets followed suit. Qatar’s index dropped 0.51%, Muscat’s bourse fell 0.33%, and Egypt’s EGX 30 posted the largest regional decline, falling 1.02% amid heightened investor anxiety.

However, a few markets bucked the trend. Kuwait’s exchange rose 0.65%, while Bahrain’s index gained 0.30%, supported by selective buying and relative insulation from the geopolitical fallout.