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5.3% Yearly Growth in GCC Fertilizer Exports

5.3% Yearly Growth in GCC Fertilizer Exports
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5.3% Yearly Growth in GCC Fertilizer Exports

5.3% Yearly Growth in GCC Fertilizer Exports

Fertilizer exports from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have hit a historic record, reaching 20.4 million tons in 2017, growing by 5.3 percent year over year, according to Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association (GPCA).

“Certainly, these growth figures contradict with what may result in the aggravation of tension in world markets and the changes imposed by trade policies among great economic powers such as the United States, the European Union and China,” GPCA said.

The GCC fertilizer industry remains heavily export-oriented, shipping its products to 80 countries in the world, with India, Brazil and the US as the top three export destinations.

Asia accounted for 55 percent of total exports in 2017, followed by South America with 21 percent, North America (15 percent) and Africa (seven percent).

According to figures by GPCA, the GCC fertilizer production capacity is likely to reach 38.9 million tons this year and poised to hit an estimated 47 million tons by 2025 growing at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 7.7 percent between 2007-2017.

Saudi Arabia produces about half of the GCC's fertilizer production for 2018, at 46 percent.

GPCA said the sales revenues have also been growing at a CAGR of 5.7 percent between 2010 and 2017, standing at $5.9 billion in 2017, albeit down from a peak of $7.2 billion in 2014 due to a drop in global fertilizer prices.

As a key contributor to socioeconomic development in the region, GCC fertilizer industry provides 54,900 direct and indirect jobs. In 2017, the industry generated $6.7 billion in indirect economic activity in the region.

The figures came ahead of the 9th GPCA Fertilizer Convention set to be held on Sept. 18-20 in Muscat, Oman.

The three-day forum will highlight the key role of fertilizers in ensuring food security, innovations in regional agriculture and new trade developments in the world.

“Despite a continuing rise in global market protectionism, the Gulf region has enjoyed record high fertilizer exports in 2017, thus, cementing its position as a globally recognized hub for the production and export of fertilizers,” said GPCA Secretary-General Dr. Abdulwahab al-Sadoun.

"To sustain and increase this growth, the industry would need to continue to explore new markets globally, and free trade will play a key role in ensuring its profitability and the sustainable development of the region, to which the industry is an important contributor," he explained.

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Economists Warn of Global Trade Risks from Israel-Iran Conflict

Rescue workers at site hit by Israeli airstrikes in Tehran (Reuters)
Rescue workers at site hit by Israeli airstrikes in Tehran (Reuters)
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Economists Warn of Global Trade Risks from Israel-Iran Conflict

Rescue workers at site hit by Israeli airstrikes in Tehran (Reuters)
Rescue workers at site hit by Israeli airstrikes in Tehran (Reuters)

Economic experts have warned that a protracted conflict between Israel and Iran could have far-reaching repercussions on the global economy, driving up energy prices and disrupting key sectors including aviation, insurance, trade, and maritime navigation.

 

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Saudi Shura Council member Fadl Al-Buainain said the ongoing military confrontation is already impacting global energy markets, with oil prices spiking to multi-month highs in the immediate aftermath of the outbreak.

 

He warned that continued Iranian threats to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz could further fuel the surge in energy prices. “Such an act would be hostile, not only to Gulf nations but also to global consumers, compounding the challenges already facing the world economy”, Al-Buainain said.

 

He stressed that the energy sector is particularly vulnerable to military escalations. “Any disruption to oil production or exports from major producers could send oil and gas prices skyrocketing, with direct consequences for global economic stability”, he said.

 

While current military actions have had limited impact on output and exports, Al-Buainain cautioned that any direct strikes on energy infrastructure could push oil prices above $100 per barrel, depending on how badly global supply chains are hit.

 

The conflict has already disrupted international flight routes and increased operational costs for airlines, he said, while surging risk premiums have driven up insurance costs across the region. Maritime trade and shipping lanes are also at risk of direct disruption.

 

Al-Buainain noted that the fallout will vary across the region. He pointed out that Saudi Arabia, thanks to its strategic location and Red Sea ports, is better positioned to maintain the flow of trade. The kingdom also benefits from pipelines that transport oil from the east to the west, partially shielding its exports from Gulf disruptions.

 

He described energy as the “real engine” of the global economy and said it, along with foreign trade, will bear the brunt of the economic impact. "But the human cost and developmental setbacks caused by war are far worse”, he added.

 

Al-Buainain warned that prospects for a swift diplomatic resolution are diminishing. “Starting wars is easier than ending them,” he said, adding that an Iranian move to shut down Hormuz, while difficult in practice, could spark a direct confrontation with global powers, particularly the United States. “If American interests are attacked, Washington could be drawn into the conflict, which risks expanding beyond control”.

 

Khaled Ramadan, head of the Cairo-based International Center for Strategic Studies, said Israel’s strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, including the Abadan refinery, which has a capacity of 700,000 barrels per day, could severely reduce oil and gas supplies if the conflict drags on.

 

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that Brent crude had already risen 8–13% following the escalation, crossing $78 per barrel. “Should the Strait of Hormuz be closed, we could see oil prices surge to record levels”, he warned.

 

Ramadan said the conflict could also disrupt global supply chains, especially through Hormuz, affecting non-oil goods such as electronics and food. Shipping and insurance costs would rise, leading to higher consumer prices and a slowdown in global trade.

 

Food staples such as wheat and corn, along with petrochemicals, garments, electronics, auto parts, and pharmaceuticals are all likely to see price increases, he said, citing higher energy and transport costs as well as declining market confidence.

 

Ramadan added that the economic fallout includes rising inflation, weakening currencies, and a drop in investment — particularly in tourism and tech.

 

“The Iranian rial and Israeli shekel have already hit their lowest levels this year,” he noted, adding that the war could reshape global energy alliances, with Europe increasingly seeking alternative suppliers.