OPEC Urges Oil Producers to Increase Investment amid Shrinking Spare Oil Capacity

OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo addresses a news conference in Vienna, Austria, October 24, 2016. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger
OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo addresses a news conference in Vienna, Austria, October 24, 2016. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger
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OPEC Urges Oil Producers to Increase Investment amid Shrinking Spare Oil Capacity

OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo addresses a news conference in Vienna, Austria, October 24, 2016. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger
OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo addresses a news conference in Vienna, Austria, October 24, 2016. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger

OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo urged oil producing companies to increase capabilities and reinforce investment to fulfill the future demand, at a time when there is a shrinkage in surplus energy.

Brent crude last week reached USD 86.74, the highest since 2014.

“We are estimating $11 trillion worth of investments that would be required to meet current and future demand up until 2040,” said Barkindo, on the sidelines of the India Energy Forum by CERAWEEK.

From around 14.5 million bpd in 2017, global oil demand is expected to increase to 111.7 million bpd by 2040, as per OPEC estimates, according to its latest report in September.

“In 2019, there is a possibility of larger imbalance due to growth in supply,” Barkindo said.

He added that India’s oil demand is expected to rise by 5.8 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2040, accounting for around 40% of the global demand rise. He added that India is projected to see the largest additional oil demand, growing at the fastest pace of 3.7 percent a year, by 2040.

The Russian government is no longer capping oil output increases by local producers, one of the country’s top energy companies Gazprom Neft said on Tuesday.

Deputy chief executive Vadim Yakovlev told a briefing in London that the company’s production was back at the levels it was pumping before Russia clinched a deal with OPEC to cut output last year, and was ready to produce more next year.

Gazprom Neft could potentially lift its oil production by a further 20,000 to 30,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year and add another 50,000 bpd next year, Yakovlev said.

“The oil market is well supplied. But there are big uncertainties regarding the end of the year with regards to Iran and Venezuela. We may have an opportunity to grow further,” Yakovlev told reporters.



OPEC Receives Compensation Plans from Iraq, Russia and Kazakhstan

A model of oil rigs in front of the OPEC logo (Reuters)
A model of oil rigs in front of the OPEC logo (Reuters)
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OPEC Receives Compensation Plans from Iraq, Russia and Kazakhstan

A model of oil rigs in front of the OPEC logo (Reuters)
A model of oil rigs in front of the OPEC logo (Reuters)

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Secretariat said Wednesday that it received compensation plans from Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia for their overproduced oil volumes in the first half of 2024.
OPEC said in a statement that the combined overproduction from the three countries totaled 2.28 million barrels per day (bpd) during the period.
The Organization added that the 37th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM) held on June 2, reiterated the critical importance of adhering to full conformity and the compensation mechanism.
In light of the above, the OPEC Secretariat said it received compensation plans from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia for their overproduced volumes for the first six months of 2024 (January through June), which totaled about 1,184 tb/d for Iraq, 620 tb/d for Kazakhstan, and 480 tb/d for the Russian Federation, according to assessments made by the independent sources approved in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC).
As a result, the three countries will trim output by varying amounts on a monthly basis, according to a table issued by OPEC, to compensate through September 2025.
Iraq and Kazakhstan will begin in July with 70,000 b/d and 18,000 b/d, respectively, while Russian cuts will begin in October.
The Platts OPEC+ Survey found Iraq produced 4.22 million b/d in June, against its quota of 4 million b/d. Russia pumped 9.10 million b/d (quota 8.978 million b/d) and Kazakhstan produced 1.54 million b/d (quota 1.468 million b/d) in the month.
Meanwhile, Russia would offset 40,000 bpd of oil overproduction in October-November 2024, while 440,000 bpd of excess output will be offset in March-September 2025, OPEC said.
Russian crude oil production in June exceeded quotas set by the OPEC+ group but the energy ministry pledged on Wednesday to stick to the required output level in July.
It said the production level was assessed by independent sources certified by the OPEC+ deal. These include international consultancies.
The ministry said Russia had sent its schedule on overproduction compensation to the OPEC secretariat, and that its oil output had fallen each month starting from April.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday that Russia is producing close to its crude production cut target under the OPEC+ agreement.
Last month, Russia, in a rare admission of oil overproduction, said that it exceeded its OPEC+ production quota in April for “technical reasons.”
Meanwhile, Iraq has blamed high production estimates on its Kurdistan region, over which the government in Baghdad has little control.
“Iraq accounts for the largest share of the compensatory cuts. But Baghdad does not have oversight over production in the Kurdish Regional Government -- and has limited visibility over how much is even produced there,” said Jim Burkhard, Commodity Insights' vice president, oil markets, energy and mobility. “Unless KRG output is cut, then Iraqi federal production will have to be cut further. This would be a real challenge.”